MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/6/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TEX/NYY, TOR/CLE, KCR/BAL, and NYM/PHI have all been PPD.
MIL/ATL is looking at the best hitting conditions tonight with temps in the 70s and 15-20mph winds blowing out to left while WSH/LAA, MIA/SDP, and STL/SFG will all see slight breezes blowing out too. DET/HOU, COL/ARI, and TBR/SEA are all in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIA/SDP are +24.7% while total runs for BAL/KCR are -9.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Nick Castellanos and Carlos Correa were both hit by pitches in the hand/wrist areas last night and Correa is headed to the IL as he was hit twice and initial x-rays showed a potential fracture in his finger while Castellanos was mostly sore but likely gets a day off if this NYM/PHI game even plays. The Red Sox are bringing up Jarren Duran from AAA today and he’s hitting leadoff tonight making him a top value play on DK for just $2,100. Teoscar Hernandez is expected to be activated off the IL today but I’m going to wait for a better matchup than Bieber to target him along with cold and wet hitting conditions in that game make him a fade for me (TOR game PPD now). Juan Yepez and Jose Miranda are both still minimum price on FD and DK and both could hit as high as 5th or 6th today if you need a couple extreme salary savers along with Royce Lewis for $2k on DK who is expected to be called up by the Twins today and could crack the starting lineup right away.
The Brewers are my favorite stack today as they are one of the hottest teams in baseball scoring 34 total runs over their last three games, are still priced too cheap on both DK and FD, and have some of the best hitting conditions today with warm weather and wind blowing out to left. The Angels and Astros are my next favorite stacks with both at home in games with no weather concerns and both going against mediocre righties in Adon and Brieske respectively while the Twins and Red Sox come in as my 4th and 5th favorite stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Christian Yelich ($3,300), Rowdy Tellez ($3,000), and Kolten Wong ($2,700) all with the platoon advantage in great hitting conditions for way too cheap prices. I will most likely have either Willy Adames ($3,600) or Andrew McCutchen ($2,800) as well to complete the full stack depending on positional needs and salary I need at other spots. Jose Altuve is still too cheap at $2,900 (and it’s his birthday!) and Yordan Alvarez is also looking like a great play at $4,300 for some more Houston exposure. If Brandon Marsh hits 2nd I like him for $2,800 and Trout ($4,300), Ohtani ($4,200), and Rendon ($3,200) make for a great stack today. The Twins also have some great prices today with Byron Buxton at just $4,100 and with Correa out we should see Urshela ($2,400), Sanchez ($2,600), and Miranda ($2,000) all hitting high in the order for a solid cheap GPP stack. Some other extremely cheap FD bats I’m considering include Akil Baddoo ($2,100), Juan Yepez ($2,000), and Cooper Hummel ($2,100).
Looking at DraftKings I still really like the prices of Yelich ($4,100), Wong ($4,100), and Tellez ($4,400) and if you can fit Adames ($4,700) and McCutchen ($3,700) then I say go for it as the Brewers are in a great spot today. Jose Miranda ($2,100), Juan Yepez ($2,100), and Royce Lewis ($2,000) make for an extremely cheap trio that will allow you to fit any pitchers and expensive bats you want so I’d consider at least a couple of them if you’re looking to pay up at other spots while Jarren Duran is my favorite value play at $2,100 hitting leadoff. Other bats I’m liking for the price on DK are Yadiel Hernandez ($3,500), Pavin Smith ($3,000), and Gio Urshela ($2,900).
For pitching Cole, Scherzer, Gausman, and Bieber are already PPD so I will probably land on Yu Darvish on both sites as my SP1 as he has zero weather concerns and has a nice matchup at home against the Marlins who currently have just a 3.1 run total. Josh Winder is extremely cheap on both sites around $6.5k and if he does anything close to what he did in his last start where he went 6IP/0ER/7Ks then he’ll easily pay off his price tag and allow you to fit a bunch of expensive bats.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn