MLB DFS: Second Half Power Surges

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2019-02-11 13:59:54

We have reached the halfway point of the season, and while some players are doing exactly as we would have anticipated, others are exceeding or falling short of our expectations. Regression to the mean is a powerful and inevitable statistical force, but can sometimes take longer to see than we are willing to wait. In DFS, we want our players to perform immediately, and it can be hard to not hold a grudge against players who have let you down. There are so many psychological forces at work in our game, and one of the strongest is the recency bias that we get from players that we have rostered. It is easier said than done, but you shouldn’t avoid playing someone unless there is a statistical reason to do so. The “that guy let’s me down every time I use him” complaint is so subject to the randomness of small sample sizes than you need to stay away from that way of thinking as much as possible.

I want to take a look at some players who have not yet performed up to our expectations in the power department and see if we should be looking for a rebound in the second half of the season. I’m going to go through the same exercise that I did in mid-May to find out who is likely to see an increase in their home run numbers as the season moves on. I talked about five hitters in that article, and all five have seen their HR/FB% increase, although two of them are going to make a reappearance here, as I believe they have yet more improvement yet to come. The four hitters that I highlighted as overachievers based on a high HR/FB% in the first six weeks have all seen their HR/FB rates fall. This is not because I have a crystal ball, but simply because, like I said at the beginning, regression is a very real and powerful force. Outliers happen on occasion, and more often in small sample sizes, but over time, things will even out. Projecting HR/FB rates for hitters is more difficult than with pitchers, as hitters all set their own power baselines, while pitchers all cluster around the same league average 10% rate. For that reason, HR/FB% is not exactly a luck-factor for hitters, but it is a relatively stable skill that more often than not stays within in a narrow range.

In order to find whether a low home run total is likely to increase, we are going to look at these basic statistics for the past three seasons; Home Runs per Plate Appearance (HR/PA), Strikeout , Walk %, Groundball/Line Drive/Fly Ball % and HR/FB (home runs per fly ball).

Troy Tulowitzki

2013 – 1 HR/20.5 PA, 16.6% K, 11.1% BB, 41/21/38 GB/LD/FB, 18.1% HR/FB
2014 – 1 HR/17.8 PA, 15.2% K, 13.3% BB, 38/23/39 GB/LD/FB, 20.6% HR/FB
2015 – 1 HR/32.5 PA, 20.1% K, 5.8% BB, 40/20/40 GB/LD/FB, 10.5% HR/FB

I started with the easy one here. We all know Tulowitzki is an elite hitter, and even more valuable in DFS at the power scarce shortstop position. He has been between 17-20% in the HR/FB department consistently, and there is no reason to think he won’t get back up to that level as the weather warms up at Coors Field. The interesting thing to see in Tulo’s skill set is the rise in strikeout rate and drop in walk rate. We have a large enough sample size of at bats to think that he may have intentionally changed his approach to be more aggressive at the plate. While that can hurt his consistency for cash games, when you’re looking for home runs, it’s not necessarily a bad thing to have him swinging at more pitches.

Lucas Duda

2013 – 1 HR/25.6 PA, 26.6% K, 14.3% BB, 32/20/48 GB/LD/FB, 14.3% HR/FB
2014 – 1 HR/19.8 PA, 22.7% K, 11.6% BB, 31/20/49 GB/LD/FB, 16.0% HR/FB
2015 – 1 HR/33.9 PA, 24.8% K, 10.6% BB, 28/27/45 GB/LD/FB, 10.6% HR/FB

I am expecting big things from Duda in the second half, as his consistently high fly ball rate shows he is swinging for power. Digging even further into his numbers this season, he has had poor results against right-handed pitching; a .278 BABIP and 8.2% HR/FB. His HR/FB against right-handers the past two seasons were 17.8% and 14.6%. He should be able to end up in between his 14-16% HR/FB numbers from the past two seasons, as he is in his peak power age at 29-years-old.

Andrew McCutchen

2013 – 1 HR/32 PA, 15.0% K, 11.6% BB, 41/24/35 GB/LD/FB, 12.4% HR/FB
2014 – 1 HR/25.6 PA, 17.7% K, 13.0% BB, 40/19/41 GB/LD/FB, 13.7% HR/FB
2015 – 1 HR/34 PA, 15.6% K, 11.8% BB, 36/22/42 GB/LD/FB, 9.9% HR/FB

I am not looking for a huge power spike from McCutchen, but there should be an increase coming. He is not a classic power hitter by any stretch, but he is a strong enough hitter that he can do basically whatever he wants. You’ll notice that the HR/PA is not much different this season than it was in 2013, but look back at the numbers and see if you can spot why I expect him to beat that number this season. He has very clearly raised his fly ball rate over the past two seasons, and that is going to allow him to have a higher HR/PA rate when the HR/FB% gets back to the 13% range.

Evan Longoria

2012 – 1 HR/18.3 PA, 19.6% K, 10.6% BB, 38/22/40 GB/LD/FB, 19.5% HR/FB
2013 – 1 HR/21.6 PA, 23.4% K, 10.1% BB, 37/19/44 GB/LD/FB, 15.7% HR/FB
2014 – 1 HR/31.8 PA, 19.0% K, 8.1% BB, 39/20/41 GB/LD/FB, 10.8% HR/FB
2015 – 1 HR/41.7 PA, 20.1% K, 9.9% BB, 33/26/41 GB/LD/FB, 8.4% HR/FB

I put Longoria in here to torture myself, because I really don’t like these numbers. I have long been a fan of his, and am still waiting for him to turn into the perennial MVP that we were promised. I put an extra year of data here so you can see the long, slow fall. From a purely statistical standpoint, when you see numbers falling like this, the most likely thing is that they would trend back upwards. Barring an aging curve or injuries, a downward trend is not supposed to be this linear. At just 29-years-old, Longoria should be in the midst of his peak power years. I still believe that it’s likely that he ends up closer to the hitter he looked like in 2013 than what he looks like now. It’s getting harder and harder to recommend him as a DFS play, but he is not off my radar completely against weaker pitchers.

Anthony Rizzo

2013 – 1 HR/30 PA, 18.4% K, 11.0% BB, 42/20/38 GB/LD/FB, 12.6% HR/FB
2014 – 1 HR/19.3 PA, 18.8% K, 11.9% BB, 36/22/42 GB/LD/FB, 18.8% HR/FB
2015 – 1 HR/23.4 PA, 12.0% K, 11.4% BB, 34/25/41 GB/LD/FB, 14.6% HR/FB

I put Rizzo in here to raise my spirits after looking at those Longoria stats. Rizzo is maturing into an elite hitter with unlimited upside at 25-years-old. I want to talk about the home runs, but first, look at the strikeout rate. That is a remarkable improvement, and if he can keep up anything close to that rate, he is going to end up being a Hall of Fame type hitter. For a slugger, anything under 20% is a good strikeout rate, to be at 12% is remarkable. Now, for the home runs – this shows more accurately what I mentioned about the oddity of Longoria’s fall; trends rarely follow a straight up or down curve. As a player improves (or declines), his numbers should bounce around somewhat, rather than just shooting straight up or down. I have no doubt that Rizzo will end up as an 18% HR/FB hitter, and though I can’t say for sure whether that will happen this season, I will be surprised if his homers don’t increase in the second half. What I know for sure on Rizzo, is you should look at these numbers and want to have him on your roster as often as possible.