MLB First Look: Friday, July 25th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:05 PM | St. Louis | Chi. Cubs | Kelly (2-1) – 2.84 ERA | Wood (7-9) – 5.12 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Toronto | N.Y. Yankees | Buehrle (10-6) – 2.86 ERA | Kuroda (6-6) – 3.88 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Arizona | Philadelphia | Miley (6-6) – 4.16 ERA | Kendrick (4-10) – 4.87 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Washington | Cincinnati | Roark (9-6) – 2.91 ERA | Simon (12-4) – 2.74 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Boston | Tampa Bay | Lester (10-7) – 2.50 ERA | Price (10-7) – 3.06 ERA |
| 7:35 PM | San Diego | Atlanta | Hahn (5-2) – 2.21 ERA | Wood (7-7) – 3.24 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Oakland | Texas | Hammel (8-7) – 3.35 ERA | J.Williams (1-4) – 6.04 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Cleveland | Kansas City | Tomlin (5-7) – 4.43 ERA | Ventura (7-8) – 3.59 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Chi. White Sox | Minnesota | Danks (8-6) – 4.35 ERA | Correia (5-12) – 4.76 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | N.Y. Mets | Milwaukee | Wheeler (5-8) – 3.78 ERA | Gallardo (5-5) – 3.79 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Miami | Houston | Hand (1-2) – 4.86 ERA | Keuchel (9-6) – 3.29 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | Pittsburgh | Colorado | Morton (5-9) – 3.28 ERA | Anderson (0-3) – 4.00 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Detroit | L.A. Angels | Smyly (6-8) – 3.80 ERA | Skaggs (5-5) – 4.65 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Baltimore | Seattle | Gausman (4-3) – 4.04 ERA | Hernandez (11-2) – 2.02 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | L.A. Dodgers | San Francisco | Greinke (11-6) – 2.90 ERA | Lincecum (9-6) – 3.65 ERA |
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Friday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
At first glance, here are the pitchers that I like for tomorrow’s slate of games:
- Felix Hernandez – The King takes the mound on Friday night in the friendly confines of Safeco Field. While he does draw a tough matchup against the Orioles, he is arguably the best pitcher in the American League. Felix has posted a 2.02 ERA this season while averaging close to 10 K’s per 9 innings.
- David Price – Price is in a similar price range as Hernandez and has similar upside. He’s facing the Red Sox at home. Price is always a terrific fantasy option because he throws more strikes than anyone. More strikes lead to more strikeouts and lower pitch counts.
- Alex Wood – If you want to save some salary cap space or are looking for a 2nd or 3rd starter, Wood is an excellent play. He is facing the worst offense in baseball and he gets to face them at home. Wood is averaging 8.9 K’s per 9 innings and isn’t afraid to attack hitters. I could see him throwing 7 strong innings while striking out 7+ batters.
2) Two Offenses to Target
- Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and a lot of that has to do with their offense that has been on a roll. Take a hot offense and put them in the best hitter’s park in baseball and that’s a recipe for DFS success. The Pirates are facing Brett Anderson in Coors and are my top team to target offensively.
- Oakland A’s – The A’s came up big in this spot yesterday with 13 runs off of Scott Feldman. Let’s hope for a repeat performance on Friday as they face Jerome Williams in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. The A’s are one of the better hitting teams against RH pitching and have plenty of LH hitters to throw at Williams.
3) wOBA vs. BvP Play of the Day
Ryan Howard didn’t end up playing yesterday, so we will start round 1 of wOBA vs. BvP on Friday night. Here are the selections for each:
- Stephen Vogt (wOBA Play of the Day) – Vogt continues to win over fans and not just Oakland A’s fans either. He’s been an extremely consistent fantasy option all season and makes a great play again on Friday night. Vogt has a .375 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and faces Jerome Williams who has given up a .358 wOBA to LH hitters.
- Jose Reyes (BvP Play of the Day) – This matchup may seem a bit unfair as Reyes is a much pricier option, but I think Vogt can compete with Reyes. Reyes earns honors as the top BvP play on Friday thanks to his great numbers off of Hiroki Kuorda. In his career, Reyes has gone 11/23 with 6 XBH’s off of Kuroda.
4) Streaky Hitter Segment
- Neil Walker – Walker has been a frequent visitor in this section of the MLB First Look and he has performed admirably. Walker is 10/22 with 4 XBH’s and 4 walks over the last 7 days and should be considered one of the top 2B options on Friday night as he draws a terrific matchup against Brett Anderson in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field. Walker has more power against RH pitching, but he’s really improved his numbers vs. LH pitching over the last month.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
- Chris Carter – I was tempted to put Jose Abreu here, but he’ll likely be everyone’s favorite pick to homer tonight with his favorable matchup against Kevin Correia. Instead, I’ll go with an off the board pick in Carter. Carter hit his 20th HR of the season yesterday and is having an incredible month of July. He’s batting .328 with 7 HR’s in the month and he draws a favorable matchup against the lefty Brad Hand.