MLB First Look: Wednesday, July 9th
Editor’s Note: Welcome to MLB First Look! In an effort to provide Grinders with more “night-before” MLB Research Content, we’re proud to announce MLB First Look by Top-Ranked Notorious. Unlike season-long where writers have months to prep before writing articles on draft strategy, the quick nature of Daily Fantasy’s player draft-pool turn-around makes completing entire research routines and writing high quality articles the night before challenging, and at times impossible. This column should help you glean insight and strategies to exploit as Notorious begins his research routine with you. Since it’s a new column, let us know your feedback in the comments!
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more. Additionally, Derek will give you a quick recap of how his night in DFS transpired.
What I Learned Tonight
What’s up Grinders, it was another interesting night of baseball. We saw the Rockies get held under 3 runs in Coors Field for the second time in as many nights, we saw the Astros put up another huge outing offensively, we saw Justin Verlander pick up an easy win after giving up 5 earned runs in the first inning, and we saw a surprisingly dominant outing from R.A. Dickey against the Angels. Once again, an exciting night of baseball as we get ready to head into the All-Star Break. Tomorrow’s slate is split with 4 early games and 11 late games. We’ll cover both in tonight’s First Look.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:08 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Detroit | Greinke (11-4) – 2.66 ERA | Scherzer (10-3) – 3.47 ERA |
| 3:10 PM | San Diego | Colorado | Stults (3-11) – 4.96 ERA | Jurrjens (0-1) – 15.43 ERA |
| 3:35 PM | Toronto | L.A. Angels | Stroman (4-2) – 3.44 ERA | Wilson (8-6) – 4.23 ERA |
| 3:40 PM | Miami | Arizona | Eovaldi (5-4) – 3.75 ERA | Collmenter (7-5) – 3.98 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Washington | Baltimore | Roark (7-6) – 3.12 ERA | Chen (8-3) – 4.12 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Cleveland | McCarthy (3-10) – 5.01 ERA | Tomlin (5-6) – 4.11 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Atlanta | N.Y. Mets | Santana (7-5) – 3.93 ERA | Gee (3-1) – 2.73 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Kansas City | Tampa Bay | Ventura (6-7) – 3.07 ERA | Cobb (4-6) – 4.28 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. White Sox | Boston | Sale (8-1) – 2.16 ERA | Lester (9-7) – 2.73 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | Cincinnati | Hendricks | Simon (11-3) – 2.78 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Houston | Texas | Keuchel (8-5) – 3.06 ERA | Darvish (8-4) – 2.63 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Philadelphia | Milwaukee | Hernandez (3-8) – 4.48 ERA | Lohse (9-3) – 3.18 ERA |
| 8:15 PM | Pittsburgh | St. Louis | Cumpton (3-2) – 4.61 ERA | Lynn (9-6) – 3.17 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Minnesota | Seattle | Gibson (7-7) – 4.17 ERA | Elias (7-7) – 4.19 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | Oakland | San Francisco | Hammel (8-5) – 2.98 ERA | Cain (1-7) – 4.27 ERA |
Wednesday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
At first glance, here are the pitchers that you should target in tomorrow night’s games:
- Yu Darvish – Darvish has one of the best K-rates in all of baseball. He is averaging 11.1 K’s per 9 innings and is facing the Astros who strike out at the highest rate (24%) against RH pitching of any team in baseball. Furthermore, Darvish owns a 1.83 ERA at home this season with a 0.97 WHIP.
- Chris Sale – The White Sox have taken the first two games of their series against the Red Sox and will look to make it three in a row on Wednesday night with Sale on the mound. Sale owns a 2.16 ERA on the season with a 0.88 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.9. You no longer have to avoid pitchers against the Red Sox in Fenway.
- Alex Cobb – If you don’t want to pay up for either Darvish or Sale, Cobb is a terrific mid-tier option. While the Royals strike out fewer times than any team in baseball, they are below average against RH pitching and Cobb should see run support as the Rays’ bats have finally started to produce some runs.
- Roenis Elias – Elias is my favorite upside play for Wednesday. He draws a terrific matchup at home against the Twins who are ranked 22nd against LH pitching this season and own a 21.6% strikeout rate against southpaws. Elias is cheap and is a sizable favorite. You can’t ask for much more than that.
2) Two Easy Teams to Target
- Colorado Rockies (Early) – If you are playing in the early slate, the most obvious offense to target is the Rockies. While the Padres pitching staff has held the Rockies to a combined three runs in the first two games of this series, they should be in for a big outing against Eric Stults who has struggled to get it going all season long.
- Milwaukee Brewers (Late) – My favorite offense to target in the late slate is the Brewers. They are facing Roberto “Fausto Carmona” Hernandez in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. While Hernandez has typically been extremely vulnerable to LH hitters, he’s given up a .352 wOBA to RH hitters this season.
3) wOBA Plays of the Day
- Troy Tulowitzki (Early) – As mentioned above, the Rockies are in a terrific spot on Wednesday and Tulo may be the top overall play. Eric Stults has given up a .370 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Tulo is sporting a .529 wOBA against southpaws.
- Michael Brantley (Late) – Brantley had a terrific game against Tanaka last night and should be able to keep it going tonight against Brandon McCarthy who has given up a .365 wOBA to LH hitters this season.
4) Daily Batter Hub: Hottest Hitters
- Jayson Werth – Over the last 7 days, Werth is 9/19 with 7 XBH’s and 8 RBI’s. He draws a fantastic matchup against LHP Wei-Yin Chen. Werth has always hit LH pitching well and makes a great play in the OF.
- Robinson Cano – Over the last 7 days, Cano is 10/25 with 5 XBH’s and 8 RBI’s. He has a terrific matchup against Kyle Gibson who has struggled both on the road and against LH hitters this season.
5) Daily HR Prediction
- Mark Teixeira – Teix has hit a sneaky 15 HR’s this season. With all of the struggles the Yankees offense has had this season, it’s just assumed that the entire offense is having a down year. While that may be somewhat true, Teix still has terrific power, especially against RH pitching. He’s hit 13 of his 15 HR’s off of RH pitching and is facing Josh Tomlin who has already given up 11 HR’s in 12 starts this season.