MLB Grind Down: April 9th PART TWO
Tampa Bay at Texas
| Tampa Bay | Texas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers Ballpark | 8:05 PM | ||||||
| BALLPARK RATINGS (LEFT) | BALLPARK RATINGS (RIGHT) | ||||||
| Left Handed Batters – 1.1 L-Rating, 0.042 HR/AB | Right Handed Batters – 1.05 R-Rating, 0.033 HR/AB | ||||||
| Roberto Hernandez | Nick Tepesch | ||||||
| SEASON | 0-1 REC, 5.40 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP | SEASON | 0-0 REC, 0.00 ERA, 0.0 Avg IP | ||||
| PvB | (32-119) H/AB, 11 XBHA, 5 HRA, 17 KA | PvB | (0-0) H/AB, 0 XBHA, 0 HRA, 0 KA | ||||
| LAST 3 | 0-1 REC, 6.2 IP, 5.40 ERA | LAST 3 | 0-0 REC, 0.0 IP, 0.00 ERA | ||||
| ROAD | 12 IP, 6.75 ERA, 0.283 BAA, 1.5 K/9 | HOME | 0 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
TBR BvP  | TEX BvP | ||||||
| TBR vs R | TEX vs R | ||||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Tampa Bay
- Roberto Hernandez had a decent start to the season, but that was at home against Baltimore. Today he has to go on the road and face the Rangers in Arlington. You definitely don’t want Hernandez on your team today, but loading up on the Rangers is not a bad idea.
- Expect plenty of offense in this one. Tepesch has never pitched in the majors and will likely let his nerves get the best of him. I’m still waiting for that big game from Evan Longoria and today could be the day. I also like Desmond Jennings and Ben Zobrist against the rook.
Texas
- Nick Tepesch is making his major league debut today against a Rays offense that can get hot and put a lot of runs on the board. Sometimes debuts are the coming out parties for pitchers, but I don’t think that is the case for Tepesch today and neither does Vegas.
- The over/under on this game is 10.5 runs which means there should be plenty of offense in this one. Expect the Rangers to make Hernandez’s start a quick one. Nelson Cruz has 3 HR’s in only 16 at bats against him, David Murphy is 7/14 against him, and both Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre look like good plays as well.
Minnesota at Kansas City
| Minnesota | Kansas City | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauffman Stadium | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| BALLPARK RATINGS (LEFT) | BALLPARK RATINGS (RIGHT) | ||||||
| Left Handed Batters – 1.03 L-Rating, 0.024 HR/AB | Right Handed Batters – 1.03 R-Rating, 0.029 HR/AB | ||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | Jeremy Guthrie | ||||||
| SEASON | 1-0 REC, 0.00 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP | SEASON | 1-0 REC, 1.50 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP | ||||
| PvB | (9-39) H/AB, 5 XBHA, 0 HRA, 5 KA | PvB | (18-48) H/AB, 10 XBHA, 4 HRA, 7 KA | ||||
| LAST 3 | 1-0 REC, 5.1 IP, 0.00 ERA | LAST 3 | 1-0 REC, 6.0 IP, 1.50 ERA | ||||
| ROAD | 6 IP, 1.5 ERA, 0.32 BAA, 3 K/9 | HOME | 101.2 IP, 5.31 ERA, 0.287 BAA, 5 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIN BvP | KCR BvP | ||||||
| MIN vs R | KCR vs R | ||||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Minnesota
- Mike Pelfrey had a pretty good start to the season, at least better than most expected against a Tigers club. I’m still not sold though, until he puts a few solid starts together, I will be just fine taking other options.
- Mauer has good BvP stats again today, he is 5/10 with a HR off of Guthrie in his career and is worth a look. Ryan Doumit also has a HR against him and is 2/2. I think Guthrie puts together a pretty good game though so don’t take too many Twins.
Kansas City
- The Royals are starting Jeremy Guthrie who had a very up and down year last season. But he did finish the season strong and is off to a nice start this season. I think he could be a great sleeper pick today even though some of the Twins batters have had success against him in the past.
- Like I said Pelfrey had a pretty good first start, but I’m not quite sold on him yet. Alex Gordon has already put together a nice little hit streak that should continue today. Take him if he isn’t too expensive.
Cincinnati at St. Louis
| Cincinnati | St. Louis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch Stadium | 8:15 PM | ||||||
| BALLPARK RATINGS (LEFT) | BALLPARK RATINGS (RIGHT) | ||||||
| Left Handed Batters – 1.02 L-Rating, 0.023 HR/AB | Right Handed Batters – 0.99 R-Rating, 0.026 HR/AB | ||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | Lance Lynn | ||||||
| SEASON | 1-0 REC, 4.50 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP | SEASON | 0-0 REC, 9.00 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP | ||||
| PvB | (57-215) H/AB, 20 XBHA, 5 HRA, 29 KA | PvB | (6-12) H/AB, 2 XBHA, 1 HRA, 4 KA | ||||
| LAST 3 | 1-0 REC, 6.0 IP, 4.50 ERA | LAST 3 | 0-0 REC, 4.0 IP, 9.00 ERA | ||||
| ROAD | 116 IP, 3.57 ERA, 0.245 BAA, 6 K/9 | HOME | 74 IP, 3.28 ERA, 0.22 BAA, 10.1 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CIN BvP | STL BvP | ||||||
| CIN vs R | STL vs R | ||||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Cincinnati
- Vegas has this game as a Pick ‘em basically which surprised me a little bit. Bronson Arroyo is a decent pitcher with an ERA that usually hovers around 4. He does have pretty good splits against the Cardinals batters, but there are so many options at pitcher today that it doesn’t make sense to take this big of risk.
- The Reds haven’t had many at bats against Lynn so throw out the BvP numbers. I think Joey Votto could be in for a good game against Lynn who has really been struggling.
St. Louis
- Lance Lynn has really struggled his last few starts and a matchup with the Reds isn’t a great one. I think he does enough to get the win today because he was very solid at home last season, but at the same time, I don’t think he is worth a spot on your team.
- Jon Jay is the only guy on the Cards that really hits Arroyo well. He is 10/25 against him with 4 extra base hits. I think he manages to get on base a couple of times tonight and score a couple of runs as well. Matt Holliday is another guy that I think should have a good game but that is more of a hunch than anything.
Pittsburgh at Arizona
| Pittsburgh | Arizona | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Field | 9:40 PM | ||||||
| BALLPARK RATINGS (LEFT) | BALLPARK RATINGS (RIGHT) | ||||||
| Left Handed Batters – 1.06 L-Rating, 0.029 HR/AB | Right Handed Batters – 1.04 R-Rating, 0.033 HR/AB | ||||||
| James McDonald | Brandon McCarthy | ||||||
| SEASON | 0-1 REC, 1.29 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP | SEASON | 0-0 REC, 10.80 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP | ||||
| PvB | (13-43) H/AB, 5 XBHA, 1 HRA, 8 KA | PvB | (5-27) H/AB, 2 XBHA, 1 HRA, 4 KA | ||||
| LAST 3 | 0-1 REC, 7.0 IP, 1.29 ERA | LAST 3 | 0-0 REC, 5.0 IP, 10.80 ERA | ||||
| ROAD | 78.2 IP, 5.95 ERA, 0.269 BAA, 8.4 K/9 | HOME | 59.1 IP, 2.88 ERA, 0.264 BAA, 6.1 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| PIT BvP | ARI BvP | ||||||
| PIT vs R | ARI vs R | ||||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Pittsburgh
- James McDonald is another guy that is a completely different pitcher on the road than he is at home. Last season he put up an impressive 2.73 ERA at home and a dismal 5.95 on the road. Not only that, but this game is at Chase Field in Arizona, not exactly a pitcher’s paradise.
- I think the Pirates hitters are in a good spot today. McCarthy is making his second start for the D-Backs and the game is in a hitters park. I like these hitters in order: Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones, and even Starling Marte all have good value today.
Arizona
- Brandon McCarthy makes his second start for the D-Backs. In his first start, he gave up 9 hits and 6 earned runs, not exactly a great start. He has a little bit better matchup today against the Pirates, but I think it’s the Pirates bats that get hot, not the other way around.
- McDonald gets a lot of K’s, but he also gives up a lot of runs when he is on the road. I think most of the D-Back’s hitters are in play today, but my favorite has to be Miguel Montero. This guy loves to face right handed pitchers at home and should be batting clean up.
Oakland at LA Angels
| Oakland | LA Angels | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Stadium | 10:05 PM | ||||||
| BALLPARK RATINGS (LEFT) | BALLPARK RATINGS (RIGHT) | ||||||
| Left Handed Batters – 0.91 L-Rating, 0.025 HR/AB | Right Handed Batters – 1 R-Rating, 0.033 HR/AB | ||||||
| Jarrod Parker | C.J. Wilson | ||||||
| SEASON | 0-1 REC, 7.20 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP | SEASON | 0-0 REC, 4.50 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP | ||||
| PvB | (17-80) H/AB, 2 XBHA, 0 HRA, 19 KA | PvB | (17-108) H/AB, 5 XBHA, 2 HRA, 25 KA | ||||
| LAST 3 | 0-1 REC, 5.0 IP, 7.20 ERA | LAST 3 | 0-0 REC, 6.0 IP, 4.50 ERA | ||||
| ROAD | 81.1 IP, 4.54 ERA, 0.257 BAA, 7.6 K/9 | HOME | 90.2 IP, 3.77 ERA, 0.245 BAA, 7.4 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| OAK BvP | LAA BvP | ||||||
| OAK vs L | LAA vs R | ||||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Oakland
- Even though the Angels offense hasn’t shown any fireworks yet, that doesn’t mean that they aren’t a great offensive team. Jarrod Parker gets the start against the Angels today and this is not a spot that I like him in. He is much better at home and should struggle against this offense.
- The A’s batters have terrible numbers against Wilson. Their best split is Josh Donaldson and he is only 2/9 off of Wilson in his career. Stay away from the A’s and take Wilson instead.
LA Angels
- Great spot for C.J. Wilson today against the A’s. We are still waiting for him to be that dominant pitcher that he was for the Rangers, but he has still been very good and I think he picks up an easy win today. He should get plenty of run support that will only fuel his confidence.
- I expect the Angels offense to heat up a bit in this one. Mike Trout is very affordable and very playable right now. All you need from him is one hit and he can get you a stolen base and a run and already make his value. So take Trout today. I also like both Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Pujols will likely be overpriced after his 2 HR game the other day, whereas Hamilton will likely be underpriced but is more susceptible to K’s.
Houston at Seattle
| Houston | Seattle | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safeco Field | 10:10 PM | ||||||
| BALLPARK RATINGS (LEFT) | BALLPARK RATINGS (RIGHT) | ||||||
| Left Handed Batters – 0.92 L-Rating, 0.014 HR/AB | Right Handed Batters – 0.93 R-Rating, 0.017 HR/AB | ||||||
| Erik Bedard | Brandon Maurer | ||||||
| SEASON | 0-0 REC, 0.00 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP | SEASON | 0-1 REC, 9.00 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP | ||||
| PvB | (7-41) H/AB, 3 XBHA, 1 HRA, 14 KA | PvB | (0-0) H/AB, 0 XBHA, 0 HRA, 0 KA | ||||
| LAST 3 | 0-0 REC, 3.1 IP, 0.00 ERA | LAST 3 | 0-1 REC, 6.0 IP, 9.00 ERA | ||||
| ROAD | 59.1 IP, 6.98 ERA, 0.317 BAA, 9.4 K/9 | HOME | 0 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| HOU BvP | SEA BvP | ||||||
| HOU vs R | SEA vs L | ||||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Houston
- Erik Bedard gets his first start of the season against a team that he spent 3 seasons with. While he should be comfortable pitching in Safeco, this time the crowd will be against him and he is going to have trouble finding run support with this Astros offense. I think he pitches well, but just doesn’t get the support he needs to pick up a win.
- At this point, I am not trusting any of the Astros hitters. Even if a guy goes 4/4, there is never anyone on base to get RBI’s and there is never anyone behind him that can knock him in for runs.
Seattle
- Brandon Maurer started his major league career off by allowing 6 runs and only striking out one batter. I think he has a much better second start. Not only will he be less nervous, but he has the dream matchup against the Astros who were shut down by Joe Saunders last night. Great value pick today.
- I’m not crazy about any of the Mariners hitters today, but Jesus Montero is good against lefties if you are looking for a cheap option at catcher.
Colorado at San Francisco
| Colorado | San Francisco | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T Park | 10:15 PM | ||||||
| BALLPARK RATINGS (LEFT) | BALLPARK RATINGS (RIGHT) | ||||||
| Left Handed Batters – 0.86 L-Rating, 0.022 HR/AB | Right Handed Batters – 0.85 R-Rating, 0.022 HR/AB | ||||||
| Juan Nicasio | Tim Lincecum | ||||||
| SEASON | 1-0 REC, 3.00 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP | SEASON | 1-0 REC, 0.00 ERA, 6.1 Avg IP | ||||
| PvB | (1-5) H/AB, 1 XBHA, 0 HRA, 1 KA | PvB | (82-285) H/AB, 23 XBHA, 5 HRA, 61 KA | ||||
| LAST 3 | 1-0 REC, 6.0 IP, 3.00 ERA | LAST 3 | 1-0 REC, 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA | ||||
| ROAD | 25.2 IP, 2.81 ERA, 0.286 BAA, 8.4 K/9 | HOME | 102 IP, 4.15 ERA, 0.242 BAA, 8.8 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| COL BvP | SFG BvP | ||||||
| COL vs R | SFG vs R | ||||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Colorado
- Juan Nicasio is a pitcher that I just can’t trust. He seems to be a head case and can blow up and allow a bunch of runs at any point in the game. He is also favored to lose this game which is never very appealing.
- Rosario and Cuddyer are the two Rockies with good BvP off of Lincecum, but this should be a very low scoring game and I am staying away from the batters.
San Francisco
- Tim Lincecum is trying to bounce back after that wacky year last season. His problem is that he continues to walk batters which increases his pitch count and gets him in trouble. Metrics guys say that Lincecum is not close to being a top tier pitcher. All that said, I kind of like him tonight at home against the Rockies. He’s cheap, has solid numbers against the Rockies hitters, and favored to win.
- Buster Posey got paid and now he is struggling. That always seems to happen after signing a huge contract. He is so cheap though that I continue to take him.