MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 4th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Atlanta at Washington
| Atlanta | Washington |
| David Hale | Vegas Moneyline | Jordan Zimmermann | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | WAS (-130) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.300 | 0.683 | 0.305 | 28.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.699 | 0.308 | 17.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.200 | 0.480 | 0.208 | 32.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.581 | 0.266 | 20.3% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP  | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- David Hale – Hale is a small underdog tonight against the Nationals in Washington. Hale has only pitched in 2 major league games, but he looked good in those starts with a 0.82 ERA while holding opponents to a .244 batting average. Hale has a spot in the rotation thanks to the injury to Brandon Beachy. Hale could make for an interesting tournament play as his price across the industry is cheap, but this is a tough matchup against the Nationals. Rating = 4
- Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann was scratched from yesterday’s start with the flu, but apparantly feels good enough to pitch today. Over 32 starts last season, Zimmermann posted a 3.25 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a K-rate of 6.8/9 IP. Zimmermann is a pitcher that can keep his pitch count down and pitch deep into ball games. The Braves have some powerful LH batters in their lineup, but Zimmermann posted an impressive .306 wOBA to LH bats last season. Zimmermann should be targeted in cash games today. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
- The Braves are underdogs in a game that has a low total of only 7.5 runs. Zimmermann does not make many mistakes and the fact that he held LH batters to a .306 wOBA last season makes this a less than appealing matchup. Nationals Park surrendered the 5th fewest HR’s last season which takes some of the power out of the Braves lineup.
Washington
- Bryce Harper – Harper’s swing has looked slow in their first few games, but he got a hold of one yesterday and almost took it out of the park. While we don’t have a lot to go off of with David Hale, but he is a RH pitcher and Harper hit for a .948 OPS last season.
- Anthony Rendon – Rendon is an impressive young player that is off to a hot start this season. He’s 5/11 with a HR and 5 RBI’s and he is being rewarded by batting 2nd in the lineup today. His price is cheap across the industry and he makes a great punt option at 2B.
Baltimore at Detroit
| Baltimore | Detroit |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Vegas Moneyline | Anibal Sanchez | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | DET (-145) | RIGHT | 9.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.307 | 18.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.671 | 0.302 | 26.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.730 | 0.321 | 15.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.207 | 0.541 | 0.244 | 28.0% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez is not typically the type of pitcher that you want to target in daily fantasy baseball. While he kept his ERA under 4.0 last season, his K-rate was at 6.3/9 IP and he pitches in the American League which means he has to face some of the best offenses in baseball. Gonzalez is a big underdog today against the Tigers who can put up runs quickly. Rating = 3
- Anibal Sanchez – Hopefully everyone saw that the Tigers game was postponed in time to get Sanchez out of your lineups yesterday. Today he will draw the start against the Orioles which is a much tougher matchup than the Royals. That said, Sanchez is one of the best pitchers in the game and I will be targeting him heavily today. Last season, Sanchez posted a 2.57 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a very impressive K-rate of 9.9/9 IP. Vegas has the total set at 9 runs, but I think Sanchez keeps this Orioles offense in check. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
- If you are new to daily fantasy baseball, I will let you in on a little secret: don’t target batters against the best pitchers in the game. That rule applies here as Sanchez was extremely tough last season and posted one of the highest K-rates in baseball. Avoid all Orioles in cash games today.
Detroit
- Miguel Cabrera – Gonzalez is a RH pitcher, but he gave up a higher wOBA to RH batters than he did to LH batters. Cabrera is off to a slow start this season, but I love the matchup and think people will be overlooking him after his quiet start to the season. Miggy posted a .344 batting average against RH pitching last season with a 1.03 OPS.
- Victor Martinez – Martinez hits for a higher average from the left side of the plate and that’s the side he will bat from tonight against the RH Gonzalez. V-Mart hit for a .314 batting average against RH pitching last season and is batting clean-up for a team that’s expected to score a lot of runs.
Milwaukee at Boston
| Milwaukee | Boston |
| Marco Estrada | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Peavy | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | BOS (-166) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.214 | 0.642 | 0.287 | 23.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.730 | 0.317 | 22.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.684 | 0.300 | 22.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.651 | 0.291 | 18.6% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Marco Estrada – Estrada was a favorite of many DFS players last season because he went on a tear at the end of the season and everyone was still afraid to take him. In his last 9 starts, he posted a 2.15 ERA while striking out 56 batters over 58 innings. He has a tough matchup in his first start this season, but I do like his outlook going forward. As for his matchup today, he faces a tough Red Sox lineup in Fenway. Hard to see him having the type of game that he needs to pay off his salary. Rating = 5
- Jake Peavy – Peavy had glaring home/road splits last season. He posted a 2.57 ERA at home with a WHIP of 0.97 and posted a 5.27 ERA on the road with a 1.28 WHIP. It’s certainly not the ballpark, some pitchers just pitch better in front of their home crowd. Luckily, Peavy is pitching at home today. The Brewers have a lot of firepower in their lineup, but Peavy is a fairly large favorite and has nice upside as he had a K-rate of 7.6/9 IP last season. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
- Ryan Braun – Braun is probably better served as a tournament play today, but a lot of people will be sleeping on him after his 1/11 start to the season. He still has a lot of power in his bat as he has hit or a .922 OPS against RH pitching over the last 3 seasons.
Boston
- David Ortiz – Estrada’s low wOBA and high K% makes the Red Sox a tough target today, but Big Papi has a nice lefty/righty matchup and he will be pumped up for their home opener in Boston. Ortiz is off to a hot start and his price across the industry is still affordable.
Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs
| Philadelphia | Chicago Cubs |
| Roberto Hernandez | Vegas Moneyline | Travis Wood | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CHC (-118) | LEFT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.305 | 0.889 | 0.399 | 17.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.207 | 0.577 | 0.274 | 22.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.640 | 0.298 | 18.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.646 | 0.292 | 15.9% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
UPDATE: The total has moved to 11.0 runs making bats from both sides terrific plays today.
- Roberto Hernandez – Whether or not you are new to daily fantasy baseball or not, one thing that you always need to look for is the wind direction at Wrigley Field. When the wind is blowing out, routine fly balls end up being HR’s. Today, 20 MPH winds are expected to blow out to center field. That does not bode well for either pitcher today. In fact, many of the online betting sites have taken the total (which opened at 8.0) down from this game. Roberto Hernandez and his .399 wOBA given to LH batters should be avoided today. Rating = 1
- Travis Wood – Wood is typically a pitcher that I like to target when he has a good matchup, but the wind is more than enough reason to avoid him against the Phillies today. There are plenty of better options on a day with a full schedule of games. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
- Carlos Ruiz – Ruiz is batting 2nd today and has always been a terrific hitter against LH pitching. He doesn’t have the power that he once did, but he still has some pop in his bat. He is one of the cheaper catching options today that makes a great play against the LH Wood.
- Marlon Byrd – Byrd is batting clean up today for the Phillies and makes a great value play across the board. The wind is blowing out to center and Byrd hit for a .344 average against LH pitching last season with 11 XBH’s.
Chicago
- Anthony Rizzo – Fire up the Cubs stack bandwagon, all aboard! Last season, Hernandez gave up a .399 wOBA to LH batters and the Cubs should be able to take advantage of that as they have 5 LH batters in their lineup today. The best play here is Anthony Rizzo. He has great power against RH pitching. My “Dong of the Day” pick yesterday hit a HR (Goldschmidt) and Rizzo gets those honors today.
- Nate Schierholtz – Schierholtz does not hit LH pitching well, but he does however, crush RH pitching. Last season, 20 of his 21 HR’s came against RH pitching. He is batting clean up and has a cheap price tag across the industry.
Minnesota at Cleveland
| Minnesota | Cleveland |
| Mike Pelfrey | Vegas Moneyline | Danny Salazar | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CLE (-160) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.755 | 0.336 | 16.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.216 | 0.584 | 0.267 | 30.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.337 | 0.808 | 0.361 | 13.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.730 | 0.317 | 30.9% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey is coming off of a very rough season. He posted an ERA over 5.00 with a WHIP of 1.56. Not only was his ERA up, but his K-rate was less than 6 per 9 innings pitched. Pelfrey is a big underdog today and until he can lower that high WHIP, I will be avoiding him in all leagues. Rating = 2
- Danny Salazar – I’m hoping that Salazar flies under the radar today. He’s not a big name outside of diehard baseball fans, but he had a very impressive rookie campaign and looks like he will be in for a monster season. In 10 starts last season, Salazar posted a 3.12 ERA with a K-rate of 11.2/9 IP. This Twins lineup really lacks firepower and I will be targeting Salazar heavily right out of the gates. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
- With Salazar being one of my top plays at pitcher today, I will not have very much exposure to the Twins bats outside of a GPP. Salazar held LH bats to a .217 batting average and RH bats to a .237 batting average last season and could very easily approach double-digit strike-outs.
Cleveland
- Jason Kipnis – The Indians are one of my favorite teams to stack today. Pelfrey is a pitcher that can get rocked and the Indians can put up a lot of runs quickly. Kipnis hit .270 against RH pitching last season with 33 XBH’s.
- Carlos Santana – Santana is better against LH pitching, but he should be right in the middle of the order today and should come up with runners in scoring position. I like his price and I like the upside against Pelfrey.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
