MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 21st - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-21 17:33:18

St. Louis at NY Mets

St. Louis					NY Mets
Tyler Lyons		Vegas Moneyline			Jenrry Mejia		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		STL (-107)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.228	0.613	0.280	29.5%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.656	0.302	18.8%
SP vs. Right	0.247	0.748	0.333	15.4%	SP vs. Right	0.253	0.640	0.276	29.1%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tyler Lyons – With Joe Kelly on the DL, Lyons will likely make at least 2 starts for the Cardinals. Lyons started 8 games for the Cardinals last season and posted a 4.75 ERA with a K/9 of 7.3. Lyons has pitched pretty well in his minor league starts this season and could make an interesting tournament play if his price is cheap enough. We all know that this Mets offense can struggle at times, especially at home. Rating = 5

• Jenrry Mejia – Over his last 8 big league starts, Mejia has posted an ERA just over 2.50 with a K/9 of 9.4. He has electric stuff, but his biggest issue this season has been his command. He has already walked 11 batters in his first 3 starts this season which not only gives batters a free base pass, but it also runs his pitch count up. The Cardinals’ lineup really sees the ball well and should make it tough on Mejia. I think he is over-priced for his matchup. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

• Mejia held LH and RH batters to a .302 wOBA or less and this game will be played in Citi Field which is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. I’m just not crazy about any batters in this game.

• Additional Plays: None

NY Mets

• David Wright – Wright is batting .316 on the season with 12 hits in his last 5 games. He is extremely locked in right now and could take advantage of the young Lyons who gave up a .333 wOBA to RH batters last season.

• Additional Plays: None

Arizona at Chicago Cubs

Arizona					Chicago Cubs
Bronson Arroyo		Vegas Moneyline			Travis Wood		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CHC (-130)			LEFT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.300	0.861	0.373	11.8%	SP vs. Left	0.211	0.576	0.270	22.4%
SP vs. Right	0.230	0.621	0.281	17.8%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.649	0.295	16.6%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs L		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Bronson Arroyo – The D-Backs were hoping for a much better start to the season than the one Arroyo has provided thus far. Arroyo has posted a 9.95 ERA with a 2.05 WHIP. Even in a matchup against the Cubs, he should not be trusted in any type of leagues until he can right the ship. Rating = 3

• Travis Wood – Wood is one of those pitchers that is much easier to write about him being a good pick than to actually use him in my daily fantasy leagues. He has solid numbers, but he just never seems to make his way into any of my lineups. Wood has a 3.00 ERA this season with 19 K’s over 18 innings of work. He is a small favorite tonight against the D-Backs and while nothing suggests otherwise, I just don’t see him as a great play with some of the other aces on the mound tonight. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

• Wood held LH and RH batters to a wOBA under .300 last season and pitched well at home with the exception of a start or two where the wind was blowing out in Wrigley. While I’m not going to be targeting Wood heavily, I will not be targeting the D-Backs’ bats heavily either.

• Additional Plays: Paul Goldschmidt (GPP)

Chicago

• Anthony Rizzo – The stars are aligning for Rizzo tonight. Arroyo has already given up 4 HR’s this season in only 3 starts and gave up a .373 wOBA to LH batters last season. Rizzo has a 1.01 OPS against RH pitching this season and makes a terrific play at 1B.

• Additional Plays: Nate Schierholtz, Starlin Castro

San Diego at Milwaukee

San Diego					Milwaukee
Andrew Cashner		Vegas Moneyline			Wily Peralta		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-114)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.242	0.678	0.302	20.3%	SP vs. Left	0.250	0.717	0.324	16.7%
SP vs. Right	0.213	0.546	0.252	17.7%	SP vs. Right	0.270	0.686	0.316	15.6%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Andrew Cashner – Cashner is one of those secrets that those who know about him want don’t want anyone else to know. Over his last 15 starts, he has an ERA under 2.00 with a K/9 of 7.7. Most DFS players will see a matchup against the Brewers in Miller Park and immediately look elsewhere, but this is actually a nice matchup for Cashner. The Brewers typically start 7 of their 8 positions players with RH bats. Cashner held RH batters to a .252 wOBA last season. I’m not recommending him as your main cash game play, but he’s one of my favorite tournament plays. Rating = 7

• Wily Peralta – Peralta is also off to a nice start this season. He has a 1.96 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and 13 K’s over 18 innings of work. This Padres offense is one of the worst in the National League and Peralta should have some success against them tonight. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

• I have both of these pitchers high in my rankings tonight and neither teams’ offense really stands out to me. I’ll be avoiding the Padres’ bats in cash games.

• Additional Plays: Jedd Gyorko (GPP)

Milwaukee

• Like I mentioned above, the Brewers have a lineup that is almost exclusively RH batters. Cashner held RH batters to a very impressive .252 wOBA last season.

• Additional Plays: Scooter Gennett (GPP Punt)

San Francisco at Colorado

San Francisco					Colorado
Ryan Vogelsong		Vegas Moneyline			Jorge De La Rosa		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		COL (-133)			LEFT		10.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.281	0.779	0.344	16.9%	SP vs. Left	0.199	0.518	0.239	24.8%
SP vs. Right	0.316	0.872	0.395	12.7%	SP vs. Right	0.285	0.769	0.350	14.5%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong in AT&T spells trouble. Vogelsong in Coors Field spells an absolute disaster. Avoiding aces in Coors Field is the norm, avoiding struggling pitchers in Coors Field is a must. Rating = 1

• Jorge De La Rosa – De La Rosa actually pitched much better at home than he did on the road last season. He posted a 2.76 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts at Coors last season. But, this is Coors Field we are talking about and De La Rosa has not been sharp this season. Rating = 1

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

• Buster Posey – There are a lot of Giants’ batters in play tonight, but Posey is by far my favorite. Posey broke out of his week-long slump with a HR yesterday against the Padres. Posey is one of the best hitters in baseball against LH pitching and De La Rosa gave up a .350 wOBA to RH batters last season. Try to get a few Giants’ bats in your lineup tonight.

• Additional Plays: Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan, Michael Morse

Colorado

• Carlos Gonzalez – I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rockies cover this 10.5 run total by themselves tonight. Vogelsong gave up a .344+ wOBA to both RH and LH batters last season and has a 5.40 ERA this season. Cargo crushes RH pitching and should have RBI chances basically every time he comes up to the plate. A mini-Rockies stack is highly recommended tonight.

• Additional Plays: Troy Tulowitzki, Charlie Blackmon, Wilin Rosario, Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, Nolan Arenado (basically the entire lineup)

Texas at Oakland

Texas					Oakland
Yu Darvish		Vegas Moneyline			Dan Straily		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TEX (-140)			RIGHT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.207	0.621	0.282	29.6%	SP vs. Left	0.244	0.720	0.321	17.6%
SP vs. Right	0.170	0.538	0.249	36.9%	SP vs. Right	0.223	0.607	0.283	21.9%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yu Darvish – Darvish owned the highest K-rate in baseball last season which puts him in play regardless of where he is pitching or who he is pitching against. Tonight he faces a tough A’s lineup that hits well at home. That said, the total for this game is set at 6.5 runs and Darvish is a decent favorite at -140. Darvish has the highest upside on the board and can be targeted in both cash games and GPP’s. Rating = 9

• Dan Straily – Straily doesn’t have as high of a K-rate as Darvish, but he posted a K/9 of 7.4 last season which isn’t bad at all. If any of the other Rangers’ starters were on the mound, I would be tempted to take him tonight, but it’s going to be hard for him to see any kind of run support with Darvish pitching. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Texas / Oakland

• The lowest total of the night does not inspire confidence in either of these offenses. Why take a batter from this game when you can load up on the SD/COL game in Coors Field?

• Additional Plays: None

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