MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 21st Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-21 17:17:57

Cincinnati at Milwaukee

Cincinnati					Milwaukee
Mat Latos		Vegas Moneyline			Wily Peralta		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-128)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.239	0.661	0.297	18.5%	SP vs. Left	0.286	0.788	0.351	16.5%
SP vs. Right	0.237	0.602	0.279	22.0%	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.645	0.297	16.8%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mat Latos – Latos has pitched well this season, but his K-rate of only 15.9% is the lowest of his career. In fact, his next lowest K-rate of any season was in 2009 when he struck out 18.4% of batters. That said, just because his K’s are down that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid him entirely. He’s still a solid fantasy option when the matchup is right. That’s not the case with his matchup against the Brewers though as the Brewers are ranked 9th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7900 FD, $14750 DD, $9200 DK, $102600 FF, $25200 SS, $14750 FTD

• Wily Peralta – Peralta is getting love from Vegas as a -130 favorite in a game that features a low run total. He’s had some problems at home this season though. In 10 starts at Miller Park, he has posted a 4.16 ERA while giving up 9 HR’s. If he can keep the ball in the park, he should pitch well tonight against the Reds who are ranked 18th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7100 FD, $13350 DD, $6700 DK, $77800 FF, $20400 SS, $13350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Jay Bruce – This is a terrific matchup for Bruce. He gets to face Peralta who has given up a .351 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Not only that, but he gets to face him in the HR-friendly Miller Park.

Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton

Milwaukee

Carlos Gomez – Gomez is a dual-threat. He can hit HR’s (14) and steal bases (17). He has a .391 wOBA against RH pitching this season and has a nice track record against Latos. He is 8/20 with 4 XBH’s off of Latos in his career.

Additional Plays: Ryan Braun, Scooter Gennett

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

Kansas City					Chicago White Sox
Jeremy Guthrie		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Sale		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CWS (-168)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.313	0.864	0.380	12.7%	SP vs. Left	0.131	0.324	0.170	32.8%
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.608	0.279	13.8%	SP vs. Right	0.241	0.650	0.294	25.4%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie’s 4.56 ERA doesn’t look great and his 4.89 FIP isn’t any better. He has had nice success against the White Sox in the past, but is only averaging 5.6 K’s per 9 innings and run support will be hard to come by with Chris Sale on the mound for the White Sox. Guthrie is an easy avoid tonight. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5500 FD, $10250 DD, $6200 DK, $48300 FF, $16500 SS, $10250 FTD

• Chris Sale – Sale is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, but the only reason I have him ranked slightly below Teheran is the fact that he is facing a Royals offense that works the count and puts the ball in play. The Royals strike out fewer times than any team in baseball which can be troublesome from a fantasy perspective. That said, the Royals offense is void of power and they are ranked 24th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Sale may have a hard time reaching double-digit strikeouts, but he should be able to rack up 7+ while pitching another quality outing. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10300 FD, $21600 DD, $12100 DK, $142600 FF, $31900 SS, $21600 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

I don’t have to go into too much detail here. Avoid all Royals tonight against Sale.

Chicago White Sox

Adam Eaton – When Guthrie takes the mound, you want to target LH batters that are facing him. He has given up a .380 wOBA to LH hitters since the start of last season. Eaton hits RH pitching well and offers nice value batting leadoff tonight.

Additional Plays: Adam Dunn

Cleveland at Minnesota

Cleveland					Minnesota
T.J. House		Vegas Moneyline			Kris Johnson		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		CLE (-118)			LEFT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.290	0.737	0.321	15.9%	SP vs. Left	0.238	0.551	0.258	30.4%
SP vs. Right	0.317	0.865	0.390	13.5%	SP vs. Right	0.314	0.810	0.388	15.6%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• T.J. House – House has an impressive 62% ground ball rate, but that’s about all he has going for him. He owns a 4.40 ERA with a K/9 of only 6.00. Tonight he is facing a Twins’ offense that is right around the league average in wOBA vs. LH pitching. This game features a high total and I’ll be avoiding House in all leagues. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5500 FD, $8150 DD, $6000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Kris Johnson – Johnson has yet to prove himself at the major league level, but at his price point, he may be an interesting tournament play tonight against the Indians. He will have quite a few lefty/lefty matchups that he can hopefully exploit. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8150 DD, $5600 DK, $64000 FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – Santana may not be hitting for average this season, but he still has plenty of power when he puts the ball in play. He has a .351 wOBA against LH pitching and a favorable matchup against the lefty Kris Johnson who has struggled thus far in his young major league career.

Additional Plays: Yan Gomes

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – Dozier is my top 2B play tonight. He has been terrific against LH pitching all season long and has a nice matchup against the inexperienced House. It also doesn’t hurt that he is a dual-threat as he has 18 HR’s and 16 SB’s already this season.

Additional Plays: Josh Willingham, Kendrys Morales

Washington at Colorado

Washington					Colorado
Doug Fister		Vegas Moneyline			Franklin Morales		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-138)			LEFT		10.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.268	0.688	0.310	18.2%	SP vs. Left	0.235	0.628	0.300	17.0%
SP vs. Right	0.281	0.680	0.312	16.2%	SP vs. Right	0.297	0.901	0.398	16.4%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Doug Fister – Fister’s ERA is at 2.90 this season, but his xFIP is at 3.90 and he isn’t striking many batters out (only 5.2 per 9 innings). Tonight’s matchup against the Rockies in Coors is more than enough to avoid Fister on all fantasy rosters. Rating = 3

Salaries: $7900 FD, $NA DS, $15700 DD, $8000 DK, $107500 FF, $22000 SS, $15700 FTD

• Franklin Morales – Morales may be my least favorite pitcher on the board tonight. He’s pitching in Coors against the Nationals whose lineup is littered with RH batters that excel against LH pitching. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5500 FD, $ DS, $9850 DD, $6100 DK, $66700 FF, $13600 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Jayson Werth – It’s time to stack the Nationals. Morales has struggled with RH hitters and has already given up 18 HR’s in only 13 starts this season. Werth gets the nod as the top play here, but all of the RH batters in this lineup are in play.

Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – Justin Morneau, Troy Tulowitzki, and Charlie Blackmon are all in play tonight, but all three were held out of Sunday’s game with minor injuries so don’t plug them into your lineups until the Rockies’ lineup is released. Dickerson will be in the lineup tonight though and should have a big outing as he has a .449 wOBA against RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Wilin Rosario, Nolan Arenado, Drew Stubbs

Detroit at Arizona

Detroit					Arizona
Justin Verlander		Vegas Moneyline			Vidal Nuno		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-138)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.240	0.669	0.301	21.7%	SP vs. Left	0.222	0.665	0.300	20.2%
SP vs. Right	0.295	0.783	0.347	20.4%	SP vs. Right	0.271	0.794	0.347	16.1%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Justin Verlander – For the first time since 2008, Verlander was not selected to the All-Star Game. His biggest issue this season has been his huge drop in strikeouts. Coming off of his career high 25.0% K-rate in 2012, Verlander posted a 23.5% K-rate in 2013. This season has been a different story though as he has only struck out 16.9% of batters that he has faced. Verlander’s peripheral stats are better than his 4.88 ERA which suggests that he’s been unlucky and has had bad defense behind him. That said, he’s just not generating the same number of swinging misses that we have seen in the past and his lowered K-rate really hurts his fantasy value. For the price, I like the upside, but only as a GPP play against the Diamondbacks. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7300 FD, $14250 DD, $6800 DK, $77800 FF, $17800 SS, $14250 FTD

• Vidal Nuno – Nuno has not pitched well this season and draws a tough matchup against the Tigers who are ranked 2nd in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Chase Field is a hitter-friendly ballpark and I will be targeting the Tigers side of this matchup. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5600 FD, $11650 DD, $5900 DK, $54100 FF, $14100 SS, $11650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Victor Martinez – V-Mart is one of my favorite plays at any position tonight. He has a terrific matchup against Nuno who has struggled against RH hitters. V-Mart has a .508 wOBA against LH pitching with a .358 ISO (measures raw power) that is among the best in baseball.

Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Austin Jackson

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – Verlander has some reverse splits this season. He has given up a .385 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. We typically like to target Goldy against LH pitching, but he has been very good against RH pitching this season as well (.403 wOBA).

Additional Plays: Aaron Hill

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3