MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 28th Page Three
St. Louis at LA Dodgers
| St. Louis | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
| Lance Lynn | Vegas Moneyline | Zack Greinke | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LAD (-150) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.733 | 0.333 | 18.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.696 | 0.313 | 20.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.631 | 0.289 | 25.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.597 | 0.272 | 24.3% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP  | STL vs R | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Lance Lynn – Even as a St. Louis Cardinals fan, I probably don’t even give Lynn the credit he probably deserves, but it’s hard to ignore his numbers after he tossed eight shutout innings in Coors Field in his last start. After 16 starts he sports an 8-5 record with a 2.90 ERA and 8.10 K’s/9. Looking at his advanced stats points to a slight regression, but after struggling on the road throughout his career coming into the season, he’s turned things around this year by posting a 2.57 ERA in eight road starts. The Cardinals offense will likely have a tough time against Greinke so getting a win won’t be easy and the Dodgers rank 6th in MLB in wOBA versus right-handed pitching, but he’s still a nice GPP target. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8000 FD, $14999 DS, $16000 DD, $8800 DK, $105100 FF, $24100 SS, $15350 FTD
- Zack Greinke – Greinke had an unenjoyable return to Kansas City in his last start, where he was knocked around for five earned runs on 11 hits in just 5.1 innings. He’s had the Cardinals number over the last two years, winning all three starts while allowing just three runs over 19.1 innings. Since joining the Dodgers last season, Greinke has been nearly unhittable at Dodger Stadium, posting a 13-3 record, 2.39 ERA, .97 WHIP and 142 strikeouts in 193.1 innings. Rating = 8
Salaries: $9300 FD, $19333 DS, $17550 DD, $10700 DK, $92200 FF, $27000 SS, $17550 FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Matt Adams – I don’t like picking on Greinke, but “Big City” is still well underpriced on several sites so he’s worth consideration. He owns a .415 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and has belted three homeruns during his current six game hitting streak
Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter
LA Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez – Lefties have had much more success off of Lynn this season than right-handed bats have and Gonzalez owns a .372 wOBA versus righties. He’s been somewhat disappointing this season, but that has just lowered his asking price across the industry.
Additional Plays: Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp
Boston at NY Yankees
| Boston | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Jon Lester | Vegas Moneyline | Masahiro Tanaka | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | NYY (-156) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.680 | 0.298 | 27.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.590 | 0.263 | 23.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.701 | 0.315 | 19.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.207 | 0.593 | 0.266 | 35.9% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jon Lester – Lester has posted a 3-1 record and 2.45 ERA during the month of June, and has been great in each of his last three starts. He’ll had to Yankee Stadium to take on a Yankees team that blasted him in their last meeting. He’s had less success away from Fenway Park recently and won’t have an easy time picking up a win with Tanaka taking the mound for the Yankees. Still, he’s good for a strikeout per inning and has the upside you’re looking for in GPP’s. Rating = 7
Salaries: $9200 FD, $18254 DS, $17050 DD, $9400 DK, $98600 FF, $26200 SS, $17050 FTD
- Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka continues to dazzle in his first MLB season, racking up 11 wins, a 2.11 ERA, .96 WHIP and 119 strikeouts in his first 15 starts. The once very potent Boston offense has only posted a .304 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and Tanaka mowed them down rather easily in their only previous meeting. Teams are now starting to get their second look at him this season, but that hasn’t slowed him down in his last two starts. He doesn’t come cheap but he has tremendous upside and can be used with confidence. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $11200 FD, $24405 DS, $20950 DD, $11300 DK, $145100 FF, $32000 SS, $20950 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Opposing hitters own just a .267 wOBA versus Tanaka and therefore I will not be targeting any of these Boston hitters.
NY Yankees
Alfonso Soriano – He’s only getting to play versus left-handed pitching nowadays, but he can still be a very effective option for DFS players. He posted a .904 OPS versus left-handed pitching last season and always seems to preform better at Yankee Stadium. He’s 6 for 19 with a homerun against Lester in their prior meetings.
Additional Plays: Mark Teixeira, Jacoby Ellsbury
Cincinnati at San Francisco
| Cincinnati | San Francisco | ||||||||
| Alfredo Simon | Vegas Moneyline | Matt Cain | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SFG (-113) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.708 | 0.320 | 14.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.208 | 0.631 | 0.288 | 21.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.215 | 0.543 | 0.264 | 17.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.730 | 0.324 | 19.4% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Alfredo Simon – With a 10-3 record and 2.92 ERA through 15 starts, it’s safe to say that Cincinnati is very pleased with what they’ve gotten from Simon this season. He has been ever more impressive outside of the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark as he owns a 7-1 road record with a very impressive 2.50 ERA. The advanced stats point to a regression (.240 BABIP and 4.42 FIP) and it’s never easy to escape the Bay Area with a win, so i’ll only be targeting Simon if the price is very reasonable. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7200 FD, $14885 DS, $14800 DD, $8100 DK, $97300 FF, $22800 SS, $14800 FTD
- Matt Cain – Things have gotten really ugly for Cain at this point in the season; he’s been very ineffective in each of his last four starts and now owns a 7.03 ERA during the month of June. I expect him to right the ship eventually, but I certainly won’t recommend him until he proves he’s proven himself on the mound. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $14862 DS, $13250 DD, $6700 DK, $54100 FF, $19400 SS, $13250 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Jay Bruce – Bruce is heating up with the weather and has now racked up seven doubles during his current eight game hitting streak. After a terrible start to the season, he now owns a .948 OPS in the month of June. Matt Cain is struggling and Bruce is has raised his wOBA against righties to .344.
Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto
San Francisco
Mike Morse – Morse owns a .317 batting average at AT&T Park this season and has been swinging the bat very well versus right-handed pitching as he owns a .396 wOBA against them.
Additional Plays: Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford
Arizona at San Diego
| Arizona | San Diego | ||||||||
| Josh Collmenter | Vegas Moneyline | Eric Stults | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ARI (-115) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.711 | 0.328 | 17.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.631 | 0.281 | 14.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.215 | 0.644 | 0.290 | 19.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.305 | 0.807 | 0.354 | 14.4% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs L | Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SDP vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jeff Collmenter – Collmenter isn’t an exciting option, but he continues to pitch well and now owns a 6-4 record with a solid 3.87 ERA. He’ll have the luxury of taking on a San DIego Padres team that ranks dead last in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season (.273 wOBA). He was forced to pitch in relief a few days ago and we all know that pitchers are creatures of habit, so that’s a slight concern and his strikeout rate has plummeted to just 5.44. With that said, the matchup is ideal and he’s a strong play to fill out your rotation on multi pitcher sites. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6800 FD, $12636 DS, $10850 DD, $5800 DK, $82400 FF, $13600 SS, $10850 FTD
- Eric Stultz – Not even Petco Park has helped Stutlz this season, as his record has now stretched to 2-10 and his ERA sits at 5.49. The Diamondbacks have several guys who have historically crushed lefties (Goldschmidt, Hill, Ross, etc) and I won’t be targeting Stultz. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5200 FD, $9559 DS, $8450 DD, $5600 DK, $40000 FF, $13400 SS, $8450 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt – Goldie has cooled off lately at the plate, but I love the spot he’s in today against the struggling Eric Stultz. He’s hitting .365 off of left-handed pitching this season and owns a career .991 OPS against them. In 25 previous plate appearances against Stultz, he owns a .400 OBP.
Additional Plays: Aaron Hill, Cody Ross (as a punt option)
San Diego
This San Diego offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in almost every hitting category and therefore I will not be targeting any Padres.
Cleveland at Seattle
| Cleveland | Seattle | ||||||||
| Josh Tomlin | Vegas Moneyline | Roenis Elias | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SEA (-123) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.763 | 0.333 | 18.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.206 | 0.686 | 0.302 | 24.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.680 | 0.298 | 19.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.671 | 0.310 | 20.5% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Josh Tomlin – Tomlin has allowed 14 runs in his last two starts and it seems that his early season success is a thing of the past. This is a pitcher who missed last season due to Tommy John Surgery and who struggled mightily the prior season, posting a rather terrible 6.36 ERA in 2012. The matchup isn’t overly intimidating, but Tomlin has been way too hittable lately and it’s just too easy to pass here. Rating = 3.5
Salaries: $5000 FD, $9666 DS, $11400 DD, $6200 DK, $61700 FF, $17400 SS, $11400 FTD
- Roenis Elias – Elias has turned things on lately and now owns a 4-1 record and 3.21 ERA during the month of June. Last season the Indians hit lefties as hard as any team in baseball, but things have turned around completely this year as they own just a .294 wOBA in 2014. He’s not the most exciting option of the day, but he definitely is in the right spot tonight to be a nice value play on multi pitcher sites. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $14826 DS, $14100 DD, $8300 DK, $99700 FF, $23100 SS, $14100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Santana was dreadful at the plate to start the season, but he’s turned things around now. He’s hitting .333 during the month of June and owns a .850 OPS against left-handed pitching during his career.
Additional Plays: Yan Gomes
Seattle
Kyle Seager – Seager is red-hot at the plate as he has had three hits in back-to-back games and has racked up 11 hits during his current four game hitting streak. He owns a 1.094 OPS at Safeco Field and a .918 OPS during the month of June. He has owned Josh Tomlin in the past, going 4 for 6 with all four hits being doubles.
Additional Plays: Robinson Cano