MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 17th - Page 2

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-05-17 16:53:23

Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Cincinnati					Philadelphia
Homer Bailey		Vegas Moneyline			Cole Hamels		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-118)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.283	0.782	0.351	20.7%	SP vs. Left	0.276	0.752	0.335	24.5%
SP vs. Right	0.213	0.591	0.269	25.0%	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.691	0.312	21.7%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Homer Bailey – Bailey has had a rather forgetable start to the 2014 season, but looked sharp in his last outing; holding the Rockies to just one run on four hits over 7.1 innings. He absolutely dominated the Phillies last season, allowing just eight baserunners over 15 shutout innings. The Phillies own the 5th worst OPS in baseball against RHP this season and we’ve all witnessed the upside that Bailey possesses. Rating = 7.5

• Cole Hamels – Hamels appears to still be working things out after spending nearly the entire month of April on the disabled list. He struck out ten Mets over seven very solid innings in his last start and will now face a banged up Cincinnati team (without Votto and Bruce) in Philly. I recommend ignoring his current 5.32 ERA and valuing him as the pitcher who posted a 3.13 ERA and 8.6 K’s/9 in 128 starts between the beginning of 2010 and end of last season. Rating = 7.5

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Devin Mesoraco – Mesoraco returned to the lineup in fashion last night, crushing a three run homerun. He’s hammered left-handed pitching so far this season and posted a .873 OPS against them last season.

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Lefties are crushing Bailey so far this season (1.048 OPS), and Utley has been swinging the bat well all season. He’s hitting .365 so far this season at home and also owns a 1.061 OPS versus right-handed pitching.

• Additional Plays: Ryan Howard, Ben Revere

Oakland at Cleveland

Oakland					Cleveland
Scott Kazmir		Vegas Moneyline			Josh Tomlin		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		OAK (-137)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.242	0.589	0.263	23.1%	SP vs. Left	0.222	0.593	0.256	11.1%
SP vs. Right	0.254	0.717	0.322	23.4%	SP vs. Right	0.214	0.555	0.249	10.0%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Scott Kazmir – Kazmir has been terrific so far this season, amassing a 5-1 record with a 2.28 ERA in his first eight starts. Tonight he’ll get a crack at his teammates from last year. Cleveland has struggled against lefties so far this season (.603 team OPS), but led MLB in OPS versus left-handed pitching last season. The Indians aren’t striking out very often this year and I’d prefer to utilize Kazmir when he’s pitching at the spacious Coliseum, but current Indians are only hitting .134 off of him in their careers and it’s hard to ignore how well he’s been pitching. Rating = 6.5

• Josh Tomlin – Tomlin has fared surprisingly well in his first two starts since being called back up from AAA. With that said, he’s still recovering from last year’s Tommy John’s surgery and was the owner of a 6.36 ERA in his last full season of action. He definitely won’t rack up many strikeouts and his .205 BABIP in 2014 is certainly unsustainable. Rating = 3.5

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

John Jaso – Jaso has been tearing the cover off the baseball recently, hitting .412 with a pair of homeruns over the last week. Lefties have given Tomlin fits in the past and Jaso is always a solid play at catcher against mediocre right-handed pitching.

• Additional Plays: Brandon Moss

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – I’ll preface this by pointing out that Santana is hitting just .154 this season, but he was a .297 hitter against left-handed pitching from 2011 through 2013. His sluggish start has lowered his asking price making him an intriguing value play on most sites (perhaps better suited for GPP use)

• Additional Plays: Ryan Raburn (same story as Santana)

Detroit at Boston

Detroit					Boston
Rick Porcello		Vegas Moneyline			John Lackey		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BOS (-124)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.294	0.785	0.350	15.0%	SP vs. Left	0.234	0.650	0.288	21.3%
SP vs. Right	0.235	0.592	0.263	23.0%	SP vs. Right	0.270	0.759	0.334	21.5%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Rick Porcello – Porcello has pitched very well in each of his last three starts, but was forced from Monday’s game early and that remains a lingering concern until we can see him pitch through whatever he’s dealing with. He enters today’s game sporting a 6-1 record with an impressive 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. However, Fenway Park has been very unkind to him during his career (10.03 ERA in three starts). While I’m fairly fond of him in season long leagues, I’ll look elsewhere in cash games today. Rating = 5

• John Lackey – Lackey suffered through two terrible starts in mid-April, but has been in cruise control since. In those four starts (all against formidable opposition), Lackey has posted a 3-0 record to go along with a 2.17 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 29 strikeouts in 29 innings. He has been terrific at Fenway Park since joining the Red Sox, but this matchup against a dangerous Detroit lineup does cut into his fantasy value a bit. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

• Miguel Cabrera – The slow start to the season is officially behind him and he’s back to driving the ball to all fields and racking up hits. He’ll bring a seven game hitting streak into tonight’s matchup against John Lackey, who he’s had success against in the past (4 for 12 with a double and a homerun).

• Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, Rajai Davis, Victor Martinez

Boston

David Ortiz – Ortiz has been red-hot lately, going 12 for 24 with five homeruns over the last week. He’s 2 for 7 in his career against Porcello with a homerun.

• Additional Plays: Shane Victorino, Mike Carp

Seattle at Minnesota

Seattle					Minnesota
Roenis Elias		Vegas Moneyline			Samuel Deduno		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		MIN (-113)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.262	0.772	0.340	25.5%	SP vs. Left	0.223	0.598	0.282	17.6%
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.703	0.323	20.1%	SP vs. Right	0.317	0.813	0.369	12.7%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Roenis Elias – Elias enters today’s game with a solid 3.69 ERA and 42 strikeouts through his first 46 innings. He has a nice matchup on tap today against a mediocre Minnesota offense. With that said, his lack of control (20 walks) is a concern and he’d be best suited for GPP use. Rating = 4.5

• Samuel Deduno – Deduno is better suited for long relief duty, but has been pushed into the starting rotation for the Twins. He’s been solid, but unspectacular, in each of his two starts. His pitch count will be limited and he doesn’t have much fantasy appeal. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Dustin Ackley – Ackley is locked in right now, going 8 for his last 20 with a pair of doubles, a triple and three homeruns.

• Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – Dozier mashed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .978 OPS in 2013. After homering last, he’s pushed his hitting streak to seven games. He’s locked in right now and finds himself in the perfect matchup to continue causing damage.

Baltimore at Kansas City

Baltimore					Kansas City
Bud Norris		Vegas Moneyline			Danny Duffy		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		KCR (-125)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.302	0.856	0.378	16.0%	SP vs. Left	0.205	0.495	0.245	18.4%
SP vs. Right	0.245	0.638	0.294	22.5%	SP vs. Right	0.179	0.548	0.278	22.7%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Bud Norris – Norris enters tonight’s game with a solid 3.98 ERA and managed to hold the Royals scoreless over six innings in their only meeting last season. He offers decent strikeout potential (7.49 K’s/9 in 2013) but has really struggled away from home so far this season (5.48 ERA). He’s an average MLB pitcher and should be valued as such today. Rating = 5

• Danny Duffy – Duffy has transitioned into the rotation rather well, allowing just one run in each of his first two starts. He possesses a mid 90’s fastball that has helped him rack up nearly a strikeout per inning so far this season and he was a weapon in the Royals bullpen last season. The Royals have struggled against left-handed pitchign this year and, to make things a little worse, are now without Matt Wieters . With that said, Duffy’s .191 BABIP this year in unsustainable and he’s better off served as a GPP only option. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz – Cruz has racked up seven RBI’s and two homeruns over the last three games. He also has a long history of crushing left-handed pitching (1.071 OPS this season) and has flourished away from Baltimore this year (1.030 road OPS).

• Additional Plays: Adam Jones

Kansas City

Alex Gordon – Over the last three years, lefties have a .368 OBP against Bud Norris. While Alex Gordon has been quiet lately, he has singled in each of their three prior meetings.

• Additional Plays: Eric Hosmer

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