MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 6th - Page 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-06 16:10:30

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City

Chicago White Sox					Kansas City
Chris Sale		Vegas Moneyline			James Shields		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		KCR (-129)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.135	0.327	0.174	29.4%	SP vs. Left	0.233	0.611	0.276	21.2%
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.686	0.309	25.3%	SP vs. Right	0.272	0.735	0.331	20.1%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Sale – Sale got a little touched up in his first start of the season. He did manage to strike out 8 batters, but gave up 3 earned runs in 7 innings of work. Sale has one of the highest K-rates in baseball, but the Royals struck out the least amount of times in baseball last season. They like to work the count and keep opposing pitch counts up. I think Sale pitches well, but I’m not sure that he will be able to pay off his high salary. Rating = 7

• James Shields – Shields makes a very nice play at home today. Last season he posted a 3.15 ERA with a K/9 of 7.7. Shields is one of those reverse splits pitchers that actually gave up a much higher wOBA to RH batters last season. That bodes well for him today though as the White Sox have a few LH batters in their lineup. This should be a pitcher’s duel. While I like Shields, I don’t recommend him in cash games because he will have an extremely tough time getting run support with Sale as the opposing starter. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Chicago / Kansas City

• This game has a total set at 7.0 runs and should not feature much offense. Both teams have less than favorable matchups. Avoid all batters here.

Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs

Philadelphia					Chicago Cubs
A.J. Burnett		Vegas Moneyline			Carlos Villanueva		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-116)			RIGHT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.263	0.711	0.335	22.5%	SP vs. Left	0.260	0.724	0.326	18.3%
SP vs. Right	0.203	0.543	0.244	29.6%	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.709	0.318	20.7%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• A.J. Burnett – Burnett only picked up 3 K’s in his first start, but only gave up 1 earned run in Arlington against the Rangers which was very impressive. Today he has a much better matchup against the Cubs. Burnett is typically a better pitcher at home, but sported an impressive K/9 of 9.8 last season. This Cubs lineup does not scare me away from Burnett in the slightest. Rating = 8

• Carlos Villanueva – Villanueva had made an appearance in two games this season, but has only managed to pitch 1 and a third innings. Right now he sports an ERA over 13. While that will certainly come down, I’m not too high on him today against the Phillies to hit RH pitching well. Villanueva gave up a .326 wOBA to LH batters last season and Utley and crew should cause some trouble for Villanueva. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Phildelphia

• Chase Utley – Utley has been on fire in the first two games at Wrigley. He is 5/8 with 2 HR’s and 4 RBI’s. Continue taking him today against Villanueva who isn’t great against LH batters.

• Additional Plays: Ryan Howard, Ben Revere, Domonic Brown

Chicago

• Anthony Rizzo – I like Rizzo more as a tournament play, but I wanted to make sure to mention him in the Grind Down. Rizzo hit 16 of his 23 HR’s against RH pitching last season and Burnett gave up a .335 wOBA to LH batters last season.

• Additional Plays: None

Seattle at Oakland

Seattle					Oakland
Erasmo Ramirez		Vegas Moneyline			Sonny Gray		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		OAK (-148)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.286	0.781	0.348	15.6%	SP vs. Left	0.226	0.622	0.281	23.5%
SP vs. Right	0.254	0.734	0.326	21.3%	SP vs. Right	0.198	0.499	0.222	28.7%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Erasmo Ramirez – Erasmo has one of the coolest names in professional sports. In fact, I’m thinking about naming my first born after him. Not really, but I do dig the name. He pitched well in his first start this season and actually has a pretty decent outlook moving forward. That said, he is a deep GPP play only today. The A’s are a tough team at home and he may have a hard time picking up a win against Sonny Gray. Rating = 5

• Sonny Gray – Gray looked good in his debut. He didn’t allow any earned runs and struck out 7 batters in 6 innings of work against the Indians. Gray was close to unhittable at home last season with an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP of 0.93. He also had a K/9 of 9.2 last season. Gray is one of my favorite pitchers to target today. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

• Gray held LH batters to a .281 wOBA average last season and what’s even more impressive is that he held RH batters to a .222 wOBA. Avoid all M’s bats today.

• Additional Plays: None

Oakland

• Brandon Moss – Erasmo is not great against LH batters and I’m still waiting for Moss to hit his first bomb of the season. Moss is batting .353 and is seeing the ball well. Only a matter of time before he bombs one.

• Additional Plays: Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes

Arizona at Colorado

Arizona					Colorado
Wade Miley		Vegas Moneyline			Brett Anderson		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		COL (-123)			LEFT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.272	0.692	0.311	16.2%	SP vs. Left	0.302	0.910	0.394	27.1%
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.727	0.326	17.6%	SP vs. Right	0.281	0.755	0.341	21.7%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wade Miley / Brett Anderson – With so many games on the schedule, I will save us both some time. I have nothing against either of these pitchers, but I do have something against taking pitchers in Coors Field. The ball sails in that thin air and the total of this game is set at 9.5 runs. Do not target either pitcher in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

• Paul Goldschmidt – I didn’t think we were ever going to see a point in the season where Goldy had more SB’s than HR’s but here we are. He actually has more speed than you would think. Anyway, back to the matchup. Anderson gave up a .341 wOBA to RH batters last season and Goldy hits for an OPS over 1.00 against lefties.

• Aaron Hill – There are a lot of D-Backs that are in play today so don’t be afraid to mini-stack them. Hill is my second favorite play here. He has always hit lefties well and is off to a hot start this season.

• Additional Plays: Mark Trumbo, Martin Prado

Colorado

• Troy Tulowitzki – If you played in the early leagues yesterday, you may have been burned by Tulo getting the day off (don’t worry, I was too). Tulo should be back in the lineup today and draws a terrific matchup against the lefty Miley who gave up a .326 wOBA to RH batters last season. Target Tulo in all of your league today, just trust me.

• Additional Plays: Michael Cuddyer, Wilin Rosario, Nolan Arenado

San Francisco at LA Dodgers

San Francisco					LA Dodgers
Matt Cain		Vegas Moneyline			Zack Greinke		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAD (-148)			RIGHT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.215	0.636	0.290	21.8%	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.721	0.326	19.1%
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.695	0.309	20.0%	SP vs. Right	0.216	0.551	0.254	22.1%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Cain – Cain seems to have picked up right where he left off last season. He just can’t seem to avoid giving up runs. I like Cain as a GPP play here, but he will have a tough time picking up a win which really hurts his fantasy value in cash games. Rating = 6

• Zack Greinke – The Dodgers pitchers have not been able to find any success against this Giants lineup so far this series, but I expect that to change today with Greinke on the mound. Greinke posted a 2.11 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP at home last season with an impressive K/9 of 8.1. Greinke is a pretty sizable favorite and the total is only set at 6.5 runs. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco / Los Angeles

• There are quite a few games on the schedule today with high run totals. This is not one of them. Avoid the bats here and heavily target the ARI/COL game.