MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 1st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Tampa Bay at Boston (Game 1)
| Tampa Bay | Boston | ||||||||
| Cesar Ramos | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Peavy | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | BOS (-149) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.693 | – | – | SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.731 | – | – |
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.682 | – | – | SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.659 | – | – |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP  | TBR vs L | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Cesar Ramos – Ramos has pitched in 7 games this season including 3 starts. He has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP, but has only pitched 17 innings and has only struck out a total of 7 batters. Today he draws a very tough matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway. Not only does he have limited upside, but he has a lot of downside in this matchup. Rating = 3
Jake Peavy – Peavy has pitched well this season with a 2.87 ERA and 32 K’s over 31 innings of work. Last season he was the story of two pitchers: home and road. He was great at Fenway with a 2.73 ERA. Luckily this start will be at home. Peavy should pitch well here, but he is facing a dangerous Rays lineup so he’s not the safest play on the board. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Matt Joyce – Joyce has been red hot against RH pitching to start the season. Check out his splits against righties: .367/.481/1.06 BA/OBP/OPS. I really like Joyce today in a hitter friendly ballpark against Peavy who hasn’t been great against LH batters.
Additional Plays: Evan Longoria
Boston
Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia has always hit LH pitching well (.340 average with a .935 OPS over the last 3 seasons) and I like that him batting leadoff today against Ramos who struggles against RH batters. Pedroia should be able to reach base and let the big bats behind him bring him home.
Additional Plays: Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, Xander Bogaerts
LA Dodgers at Minnesota (Game 1)
| LA Dodgers | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Dan Haren | Vegas Moneyline | Mike Pelfrey | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LAD -145 | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.722 | – | – | SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.762 | – | – |
| SP vs. Right | 0.281 | 0.792 | – | – | SP vs. Right | 0.337 | 0.821 | – | – |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs L | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dan Haren – Haren has really pitched well this season because he has managed to keep the ball in the park. He has a 2.03 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 27 K’s over 31 innings of work. Today he faces a tough Twins offense that has scored the 5th most runs of any team in baseball. While Haren is the favorite here, this Twins offense is not one that you can pick on anymore. I think he will get plenty of run support with Pelfrey on the mound opposite him, but I think he gives up a few runs. Rating = 6
Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey should not be on your fantasy radar today or any other day for that matter. You want to target pitchers that have high K-rates and don’t allow many runs. Pelfrey is the opposite of that. So far this season he has a 7.32 ERA with only 8 K’s in 4 starts. He should be avoided in all leageus. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
L.A. Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez – A-Gon is locked in right now, not only is he batting .348 against RH pitching this season, but he has 9 hits in his last 5 games including 3 HR’s and 7 RBI’s. He should have plenty of chances for RBI’s in this one. Don’t be afraid to use a few Dodgers’ batters in your lineups today.
Additional Plays: Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon
Minnesota
Joe Mauer – Mauer is never a player that is highly owned because he doesn’t have a ton of power and he plays one of the most stacked positions in fantasy baseball. He has a nice matchup today against Haren though. Mauer is batting .293 with 4 XBH’s against RH pitching this season.
Additional Plays: Brian Dozier
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Game 1)
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Charlie Morton | Vegas Moneyline | Bud Norris | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-145) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.301 | 0.749 | 0.366 | 16.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.315 | 0.889 | – | – |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.579 | 0.272 | 17.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.629 | – | – |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Charlie Morton – These starters were scheduled to pitch last night, but will draw the start in tonight’s game after last night’s game was postponed. Morton is good against RH batters and he is good at home. Tonight he faces an Orioles lineup that is littered with LH batters and he will be facing them on the road in Camden Yards. Morton has a 4.33 ERA on the season and doesn’t have a high enough K-rate to make up for the bad matchup against the Orioles. Rating = 4
Bud Norris – Norris is one of those pitchers that you only want to target when everything lines up perfectly. Over the last few seasons, he has an ERA around 4.50 with a K/9 of around 7.5. Today he faces a Pirates offense that has scored the 4th fewest runs of any team in baseball. While I’m not going to use him in cash games, I do like him as an upside play in GPP’s. He has a decent K-rate and should see some run support today. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Pedro Alvarez – Norris is excellent against RH batters so if you are targeting any Bucco’s bats today, make sure that they bat from the left side of the plate. Alvarez does not hit for a high average, but he has great power against RH pitching and a nice matchup against Norris in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.
Additional Plays: Neil Walker
Baltimore
Nick Markakis – Markakis doesn’t make the highlighted plays section of the Grind Down very often, but with Chris Davis on the shelf, he is arguably the next best LH bat on the Orioles. As mentioned above, Morton really struggles against LH batters as he gave up a .366 wOBA to lefties last season.
Additional Plays: Matt Wieters, David Lough
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Game 2)
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Brandon Cumpton | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Tillman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-135) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.601 | 0.281 | 21.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.740 | 0.328 | 19.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.192 | 0.436 | 0.216 | 14.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.692 | 0.306 | 22.9% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Brandon Cumpton – Cumpton will make another start for the injured Wandy Rodriguez. In his first start of the season he gave up 2 earned runs to the Reds while striking out 5 batters over 7 innings pitched. If he was pitching at home, this may be a different story, but I have a hard time targeting such a young pitcher on the road. Rating = 4
Chris Tillman – Through 5 starts this season, Tillman has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.6. He is a decent favorite tonight in a game that features a fairly low run total. I think Tillman deserves consideration as a GPP play, but there are better options for cash games. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Pedro Alvarez – Alvarez has terrific power against RH pitching. While he doesn’t hit for a high average, when he makes contact, the ball goes a long ways. Last season he hit 33 HR’s off of RH pitching and he has a favorable matchup against Tillman who gave up a .328 wOBA to LH batters last season.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen
Baltimore
Adam Jones – Jones has struggled against RH pitching and has struggled at home this season, but the sample size is small and Jones was at his best against RH pitching at home last season. Jones has good power against RH pitching and should come up to bat with plenty of RBI opportunities.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz
LA Dodgers at Minnesota (Game 2)
| LA Dodgers | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Red Patterson | Vegas Moneyline | Kris Johnson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIN (-165) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | – | – | – | – | SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.635 | 0.296 | 29.4% |
| SP vs. Right | – | – | – | – | SP vs. Right | 0.320 | 0.774 | 0.366 | 13.8% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs L | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Red Patterson – Patterson will be making his first career big league start as the Dodgers need him to pitch in the second game of this double-header. He is not a major prospect and has posted very average numbers in the minors this season: 4.15 ERA with only 14 K’s over 21 innings of work. He is a large underdog for a reason. Rating = 2
Kris Johnson – Johnson will be making his 2nd career start and will likely be sent right back down to the minors after this start. He has pitched well in the minors this season with a 2.86 ERA, but is by no means a trusted fantasy option. I think both of these pitchers will let their nerves get the best of them. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
L.A. Dodgers
Hanley Ramirez – Over the last 3 season, Hanley has a .349 batting average against LH pitching with a 1.14 OPS. Tonight he gets to face the young, inexperienced lefty in Johnson. He is my top SS option on the board tonight.
Additional Plays: Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez
Minnesota
Joe Mauer – I liked Mauer in this first game of the double-header and I like him again here. Patterson is not a pitcher that you need to avoid taking hitters against and Mauer could very easily be in for a multi-hit game against the rookie RH pitcher.
Additional Plays: Chris Colabello, Brian Dozer, Jason Kubel