MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 30th
UPDATE: The following games have been postponed:
-NYM/PHI
-PIT/BAL
-SEA/NYY
-TB/BOS
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Milwaukee at St. Louis
| Milwaukee | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Matt Garza | Vegas Moneyline | Shelby Miller | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-141) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.725 | 0.324 | 21.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.779 | 0.345 | 21.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.655 | 0.296 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.204 | 0.585 | 0.270 | 24.6% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP  | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Garza – Garza has had some mixed results this season. He is coming off of his best start of the season, but still has a 4.06 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP. Tonight he faces a tough Cardinals’ offense that has given this Brewers’ pitching staff fits. Garza is worth GPP consideration thanks to his high K-rate, but can safely be avoided in cash games. Rating = 5
Shelby Miller – Miller is similar to Lance Lynn in that you want to target him when he is pitching at home. In his 18 career starts at Busch Stadium, he has an ERA under 2.00 with a K/9 of 8.6. Miller struggles against LH batters, but this Brewers lineup typically only has 1-3 LH batters in their lineup. He makes a solid play in all leagues. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Lyle Overbay – Overbay has been a great fit for this Brewers ball club. He is batting .379 with 3 XBH’s against RH pitching and should be in the lineup today against Miller who gave up a .345 wOBA to LH batters last season.
Additional Plays: Scooter Gennett
St. Louis
Allen Craig – Craig has been close to turning the corner offensively for the last couple of weeks and it appears that he finally has. He has 4 hits in his last 3 games including a HR and a triple. His price has yet to come up and this may be the last time that you can take him at this price.
Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter
Detroit at Chicago White Sox
| Detroit | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Max Scherzer | Vegas Moneyline | Hector Noesi | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CWS (-135) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.221 | 0.645 | 0.285 | 26.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.354 | 0.935 | 0.418 | 19.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.174 | 0.508 | 0.230 | 33.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.370 | 1.026 | 0.451 | 12.9% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Max Scherzer – Scherzer will draw the start today and face the league’s best offense through the first month of the season. Scherzer is off to an excellent start this season with a 2.45 ERA and a K/9 of 12.0. This White Sox lineup continues to put up runs against top pitching though and I think Scherzer is better suited as a tournament play. There are safer cash game plays in tonight’s games. Rating = 7
Hector Noesi – Over the last 3 seasons, Noesi has had an ERA well above 6.00. He has only made 1 start since 2012 and is not a recommended fantasy option. Especially against a lethal offense like the Tigers. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Victor Martinez – Noesi struggles against both LH and RH batters as he gave up a .400+ wOBA to both last season. There are a lot of Tigers’ bats that are in play here, but I like the price of V-Mart and think he will have plenty of RBI opportunities in this one.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Austin Jackson
Chicago White Sox
Even though I probably won’t be using Scherzer in cash games, I certainly won’t be taking any hitters against him. Scherzer held LH and RH batters to a .280 wOBA or less last season.
NY Mets at Philadelphia
| NY Mets | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Bartolo Colon | Vegas Moneyline | Kyle Kendrick | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PHI (-110) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.701 | 0.306 | 14.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.706 | 0.314 | 14.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.656 | 0.288 | 16.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.307 | 0.768 | 0.347 | 13.2% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon – Colon is coming off of a great start against the Cardinals, but still owns a 4.50 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.3. Most DFS players have the same mindset as I do when it comes to Colon, they just can’t seem to trust him. He is a GPP-only recommendation against the Phillies. Rating = 5
Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick has a 3.52 ERA on the season with a 1.43 WHIP and only 19 K’s over 30 innings of work. While Kendrick is better against LH batters then RH batters, he still has very limited upside against a Mets offense that has actually been pretty good away from Citi Field. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
N.Y. Mets
Curtis Granderson – Granderson is about to turn the corner offensively and even though he has been awfully quiet to start the season, his price is depressed across the board. Granderson has 4 hits and 3 walks in his last 6 games and makes a nice target today against the RH Kendrick who does not strike many batters out.
Additional Plays: Eric Young, David Wright
Philadelphia
Ryan Howard – Howard has great power against RH pitching and even though his average against righties is only at .254 this season, 7 of his 17 hits went for extra bases. He also has 2 HR’s off of Colon in his career.
Additional Plays: Chase Utley
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Charlie Morton | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Tillman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-131) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.301 | 0.749 | 0.366 | 16.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.740 | 0.328 | 19.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.579 | 0.272 | 17.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.692 | 0.306 | 22.9% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Charlie Morton – These starters were scheduled to pitch last night, but will draw the start in tonight’s game after last night’s game was postponed. Morton is good against RH batters and he is good at home. Tonight he faces an Orioles lineup that is littered with LH batters and he will be facing them on the road in Camden Yards. Morton has a 4.33 ERA on the season and doesn’t have a high enough K-rate to make up for the bad matchup against the Orioles. Rating = 4
Chris Tillman – Through 5 starts this season, Tillman has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.6. He is a decent favorite tonight in a game that features a fairly low run total. I think Tillman deserves consideration as a GPP play, but there are better options for cash games. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Pedro Alvarez – Alvarez has terrific power against RH pitching. While he doesn’t hit for a high average, when he makes contact, the ball goes a long ways. Last season he hit 33 HR’s off of RH pitching and he has a favorable matchup against Tillman who gave up a .328 wOBA to LH batters last season.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen
Baltimore
Nick Markakis – Markakis doesn’t make the highlighted plays section of the Grind Down very often, but with Chris Davis on the shelf, he is arguably the next best LH bat on the Orioles. As mentioned above, Morton really struggles against LH batters as he gave up a .366 wOBA to lefties last season.
Additional Plays: Matt Wieters, David Lough
Seattle at NY Yankees
| Seattle | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Roenis Elias | Vegas Moneyline | David Phelps | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | NYY (-135) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.190 | 0.661 | 0.297 | 24.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.739 | 0.336 | 25.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.725 | 0.337 | 16.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.743 | 0.336 | 17.3% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Roenis Elias – Elias has pitched well in his first 5 big league starts. He has a 3.54 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and 21 K’s over 28 innings of work. He draws a tough matchup against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium though and I think they could get a hold of him in this one. I’ll be avoiding Elias in all leagues. Rating = 3
David Phelps – Phelps is a relief pitcher that will be making a spot start for the suspended Pineda. Phelps wasn’t great in his few starts last season and likely won’t pitch deep into this game. There is more risk than reward with Phelps tonight. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Kyle Seager – Seager has been on an absolute tear over the past week. If you don’t believe me, pull up his game logs on the DFS site that you are playing on. Over his past 5 games he has 9 hits including 5 HR’s. Phelps gave up a .336 wOBA to LH batters last season and Seager is a terrific value at 3B.
Additional Plays: Robinson Cano, Justin Smoak
N.Y. Yankees
Carlos Beltran – Beltran is off to a nice start with the Yankees and has been excellent at Yankee Stadium batting .309 with a 1.10 OPS. Even though it’s a small sample size, Elias has given up a .337 wOBA to RH batters this season.
Additional Plays: Alfonso Soriano, Mark Teixeira, Yangervis Solarte