MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Today — Friday, July 30th, 2021
Betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down MLB odds, picks, and predictions for today. If you don’t yet have an account at BetMGM Sportsbook, take advantage of our MLB special offer!
On Friday, July 30th, all 30 MLB teams are in action, creating plenty of options to earn some profit this evening. The first pitch of the day is at 7:05 PM ET, which gives sports bettors more than enough time to evaluate today’s slate and lock in their picks.
Let’s take a look at some of the best bets across the league this evening.
MLB picks for Friday, July 30th
Red Sox Moneyline (+120) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Simply put, the wrong team is favored in tonight’s matchup between the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays. Although Martin Perez has struggled to a 3.86 ERA and a 4.69 FIP over his last six starts, part of the issue is that he has had to face the same New York Yankees lineup three times in less than a month. The extra looks clearly benefited New York’s offense as they roughed Perez up for six earned runs in 10.0 innings of work in their second and third meeting against him. The Rays rank 27th in OPS and 23rd in ISO against left-handed pitching, while also striking-out at the third-worst clip in the league. The addition of Nelson Cruz will certainly help this group improve upon those numbers to an extent, but this is still likely to be a club that struggles against southpaws. Tampa Bay’s starter tonight, Josh Fleming, owns a 6.43 ERA and a 5.59 FIP over his last five appearances, spanning 21.0 innings. Boston strikes-out a miniscule 21.5 percent of the time against left-handed pitching in 2021, while ranking 10th in OPS and ninth in ISO. At plus-money, the Red Sox, having the better starting pitcher and the better offense in this contest, are unquestionably worth a wager.
Athletics vs. Angels Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
Angel Stadium has earned a reputation in 2021 for being one of the most hitter-friendly venues in Major League Baseball, and for good reason. In night games, the ballpark has produced seven percent more offense compared to league average, and a slow market reaction to the offensive trends has resulted in a very disproportionate number of games in this stadium hitting the over this year. However, it feels as though the sportsbooks have finally managed to appropriately adjust the price on totals here. Tonight, the under has value in a game between two offenses that have struggled as of late. Over the last two weeks, Oakland ranks 25th in OPS and 28th in ISO, while the Angels rank 23rd in OPS and 25th in ISO. Chris Bassitt and Patrick Sandoval, tonight’s starting pitchers, have both thrown the ball very well over the last month. In the last 30 days, the Athletics bullpen ranks fourth-best in FIP and thus, should be able to keep the scoring opportunities to a minimum in the late innings. The Angels bullpen ranks 22nd in FIP during that span, but their relief corps should be able to have a decent day against an Oakland lineup that has not scared anyone for quite some time. Bettors should expect a low-scoring affair in Anaheim tonight.
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Dodgers Moneyline (-184) vs. Diamondbacks
The Los Angeles Dodgers pulled off one of the most extraordinary trade deadline deals in recent memory yesterday, acquiring Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Washington Nationals, after it was reported by reputable sources that Scherzer was likely heading to the San Diego Padres. While Scherzer and Turner are unlikely to be with the team for tonight’s action, the Dodgers will be adding a different All-Star to the lineup as Corey Seager returns from the injured list. Seager will slot into a lineup that, despite dealing with a significant amount of injuries recently, has posted the fourth-best OPS and fifth-best ISO of any team in the league over the last 30 days. Arizona’s bats have heated up somewhat over the last two weeks, but they have struggled against right-handed pitching for the majority of the season—ranking 30th in OPS and 29th in ISO. Throwing out a disaster outing against the San Francisco Giants, Tony Gonsolin has been outstanding for Los Angeles since returning from the injured list. His counterpart, Zac Gallen, has struggled tremendously since returning from his own injury woes—posting a 6.75 ERA and a 5.87 FIP over his last six starts, spanning 24.0 innings of work. Bettors should back the Dodgers with confidence here to start their weekend on a winning note.
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