MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Today — Wednesday, August 11th
MLB betting analyst Sloan Piva peruses baseball odds every day to deliver his best bets. Read below to find his picks and predictions for the White Sox at Twins and Giants at Diamondbacks on Wednesday, August 11th.
I recently spoke with a guest of my hotel, who took great interest in the fact that I moonlight as a freelance sports betting. He mentioned that he partakes in the hobby—yes, it’s a hobby, not a vice… it’s legal in over half the country, people—and that Major League Baseball has always been his bread and butter.
Of course, he and I hit it off immediately as I drove him and his significant other to their lunch destination (props to her for not being bored to tears while we rambled on—reminded me of my wife, hah). We discussed the nuances of the sport, the current state of the league, and personal tips on making a buck at the sportsbooks.
We talked about the Reds and the White Sox, two teams I have written about abundantly this season. We agreed that the Red Sox’s first half of the season was a façade. And my new friend said something I’ve written in this column all friggin’ year: it’s all about the pitching.
I felt like Will Ferrell in Anchorman: “Did we just become best friends!?” This guy gets it, I thought. I bet he’s raking. On cue, he tipped me $40 when we reached our drop-off spot, thanked me for the ride and for the conversation, and wished me well on my sports writing journey.
I love both my jobs. They each mesh personal passions, and allow me to get paid for doing things I greatly enjoy. My hospitality career allows me to be social, and lead people, and make guests happy. My betting analysis career allows me to watch sports, and write, and help make readers money. As Jim Harbaugh would say, “who’s got it better than us?”
On Tuesday, we could have had it better. With the Mariners choking at home against the Rangers, we went 1-2 to bring our season-long Bets of the Day record to 49-37. Still 12 games above .500, and not nearly enough of a blow to stop my shine right now.
Life is good—let’s make some more money and race into the weekend with momentum.
MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Today
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Pitching Matchup: Lance Lynn vs. Bailey Ober
MLB Bet: White Sox -0.5 1st 5 Innings (-110)
Here we go again with the White Sox, who have become one of my tried-and-true ballclubs to bet this season. Not only are they fun to watch, but they have proven to be super lucrative. And Lance Lynn has been one of the key catalysts to the South Siders’ success (alliteration achievement acquired!). The veteran ace has rightfully moved to the front of the AL Cy Young odds boards (-170).
Just look at Lynn’s ridiculous 2021 numbers for the AL Central-leading Sox: 10-3, MLB-leading 2.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, AL-best 6.7 hits per nine innings, .200 batting average against. Yeah, he’s filthy, and the post-deadline Twins don’t stand a chance against him.
Now, I don’t love the value of Chicago’s -165 moneyline, or their -1.5 run line at -105. But I love their -0.5 run line at -110 over the first five innings. All Lynn needs is a one-run lead at the end of the fifth? Sign me up. I’m 98 percent sure he will outduel Bailey Ober, and I’m even more confident the slugging ChiSox will outscore the Twins.
Ober has allowed a collective total of eight earned runs across his past three five-inning starts, and he has surrendered multiple homers in four of his 12 games this season. That includes his last time out in Houston, where he got bashed by the Astros for seven hits and three earned runs.
The White Sox have been just as good as the Astros over the past month, and they have emerged as a legitimate World Series contender. Eloy Jimenez has made up for lost time since being activated off the IL, Jose Abreu has been just awesome as his MVP season last year, and Tim Anderson has started to really ignite as of late. Plus, they have a super solid staff. Look out, world—the White Sox are the real deal, and -0.5 through five at -110 feels like a real steal.
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Update: Kevin Gausman vs. Merrill Kelly
MLB Bet: Giants -1.5 (-120)
Like I said earlier, it’s all about the pitching. That’s why I am confidently backing Lynn and the Sox, and why I’ll continue to back Gausman and the Giants. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that San Fran boasts the burliest bats in baseball, with an MLB-leading 170 dingers on the season.
But with or without run support, Gausman deserves at least a paragraph per start. The 30-year old righty and first-time All-Star has figured it all out this season—10-5, 2.31 ERA, 0.945 WHIP, 10.7 strikeouts per nine, .181 BAA. Game in and game out, Gausman limits hard contact and methodically mows down his opponents.
The Diamondbacks have been one of the most victimized opponents of Gausman’s torrid 2021 campaign. In three starts against Arizona, the veteran ace is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. He has struck out 23 D-backs in 19 innings, while allowing just 14 hits and three total walks. Now Arizona has shipped All-Star Eduardo Escobar to the Brewers, and San Fran has infused superstar third baseman Kris Bryant into the heart of its lineup. Good grief.
Merrill Kelly has demonstrated significant improvements this season, but he’s still prone to surrendering hard contact (40% hard-hit rate, 88.7 mph AVG exit velo) and allowing boatloads of baserunners (.250 BAA, .295 OBP). San Fran has seen Kelly a handful of times already this season—and he turned in a gem last time out—but I hate his chances against Gausman and the best team in baseball at Oracle Park. Give me the Giants by a mammoth margin.
Image Credit: Imagn