MLB Picks For Today: Yankees Betting Favorites Against Red Sox
The Red Sox welcome the Yankees to Fenway Park for the second game of a weekend series. With the Yankees seemingly locked into a division championship, the Red Sox find themselves relegated to the quest for a Wild Card spot. Fresh off of a victory on Friday night, the Red Sox look to keep it rolling at home. Here is a sports betting preview and MLB for today’s American League East contest.
The Red Sox began a weekend series with the rival Yankees with a bang. The Sox obliterated the Bronx Bombers to the tune of 19-3. Xander Bogaerts shined — going 4 for 6 with two home runs, 4 RBI, and 4 runs. The Red Sox added an additional three home runs en route to an easy victory. Masahiro Tanaka unbelievably surrendered 12 earned runs.
The Yankees look to bounce back on Friday night — sending James Paxton to the hill to face newly acquired Andrew Cashner for the Red Sox. FanDuel Sportsbook tabs the Yankees as -124 favorites with both teams projected to combine for a massive 11 runs. Bookmakers expect a pile of runs with the price of the over already resting at -118 at the time of this writing.
MLB Picks for Today — Yankees (-124) vs. Red Sox (+108), Over/Under 11 Runs
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Stat of the Night
The Yankees enter tonight’s game sporting a robust 136 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The previous figure, along with a .300 team batting average and .237 team ISO, is an MLB-best over the 30-day span.
The Yankees’ 148 RBI is also a league-best number with New York’s 153 runs tied for second. Simply put, the Yankees offense is white-hot over the span of a month and is gifted a phenomenal matchup on Friday night.
Temperature Meter – Andrew Cashner Ice Cold in Boston
In the last five starts of his Orioles tenure, Andrew Cashner flummoxed opposing bettor and fantasy players alike — pitching five consecutive quality starts with three converted for wins. The small sample must have appealed to the Red Sox when acquiring the veteran hurler.
Since joining the Red Sox rotation, Cashner immediately became an exaggerated form of his old self — surrendering nine runs in two starts and yielding two home runs per game. A matchup in Fenway Park with the aforementioned white-hot Yankees offense should not stir confidence in the Red Sox side.
Prop Shop – HR Props on FanDuel Sportsbook
Where do we begin? With Andrew Cashner and his 1.2 HR/9 over the past three years on the hill, all of the Bronx Bombers are in play for a home run. FanDuel Sportsbook provides a price for every hitter that could crack the lineup. Edwin Encarnacion and his 50.2 FB% will cost you +270 while switch-hitting Aaron Hicks will cost +410.
A note to consider when chasing home runs is the offensive context. Last year, Fenway Park rated pretty neutrally for right-handed home runs per FanGraphs, but rated second-worst for left-handed bombs. So, the aforementioned Hicks and teammate Didi Gregorious (+450) are probably priced accordingly.
Finally, Mookie Betts +430 price seems appropriate based on Betts’ surface numbers this season and a matchup with James Paxton. James Paxton is regarded as a very good pitcher, oft walking the “Ace” caliber line. That said, Paxton’s .215 ISO, 43.2 FB%, and 34.9 Hard% against right-handed hitters indicates difficulty with right-handed sluggers. In Fenway Park, Paxton can be had.
Betts, on the other hand, possesses below-the-surface numbers that serve as a strong indicator of some power regression. Mookie owns a 50% fly-ball rate against southpaws this season with only a .095 ISO. Digging deeper, Betts 2.2 HR/FB% versus lefties is microscopic compared to previous years and does not fall in line with the rest of his underlying statistics. If you are looking for a bargain when speculating on home runs, Mookie might be the best bet.
Pitching Primer
Starting with the road team, James Paxton seems to be experiencing a bit of a roller coaster ride in 2019. In his last start, a plus matchup with the visiting Rockies, Paxton was lit up five hits, a home run, and four earned runs in a 3 and 1/3 inning start. The previous start against the Rays, Paxton pitched well — finishing six innings but ceding nine baserunners. In his lone start versus the Sox, Paxton dominated Boston — going eight innings with only three baserunners and 12 strikeouts. Unfortunately, that is not the norm for the Yankees southpaw and his inconsistency has likely baffled bettors all season.
Paxton’s peripherals suggest that the inconsistency may remain. An increase in hard-contact and walk rate paired with a decrease to his strikeout rate has made going the distance very difficult for Paxton this season. His xFIP of 3.94 is the highest mark of Paxton’s career since 2016 when he broke into the big leagues. A Red Sox offense fresh off 19 runs and capable of loading up on a bunch of right-handed bats could make this start tough for the Yankees and Paxton tonight.
With Andrew Cashner, the story mirrors the aforementioned blurb in the Temperature Meter section. Cashner does not miss bats, compiling a 15.1 K% since the start of 2018. In the same time frame, his 8.7% walk-rate and 81.7% contact-rate give opposing hitters a strong likelihood of reaching base. These numbers being the average of all of his start place into perspective the real test Cashner will face tonight with the hottest offense over the last month waiting in the visiting dugout. The projected Yankee lineup per RotoGrinders owns a .212 ISO versus right-handed starters. The Green Monster may very well be peppered this evening.
The MLB Pick — Yankees -124 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds).
With Andrew Cashner opposing the Yankees this evening, I cannot possibly justify the Red Sox +108 ML bet. The over sitting at 11 runs is slightly more attractive consider Paxton’s struggles with consistency this season. That said, the Yankees offense should be far too overwhelming for Andrew Cashner and a pretty average Red Sox bullpen.
For that reason, I am going to keep it simple and take the Yankees side this evening. Due to the massive offensive night the Red Sox had, though, I anticipate the line might more towards the Red Sox throughout the day. For the sake of the article, I will take the Yankees at -124 on FanDuel Sportsbook but will certainly keep an eye for a better number as the day progresses.
Check back this weekend as we provide more MLB picks for Saturday and Sunday.
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