MLB Player Props for Friday, 7/4: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Charlie Morton, Kyle Hendricks, and Rafael Devers? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, July 4th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Birthday, America! Major League Baseball began celebrating the holiday earlier this afternoon, but there are still 9 games left to get underway as of this writing. That leaves plenty of opportunities for bettors to find a few plays to their liking today, even if they spent the afternoon barbecuing and enjoying the sunshine.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Friday, July 4th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Friday, July 4
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on Friday, July 4th:
- Charlie Morton Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
- Kyle Hendricks Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Rafael Devers Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Charlie Morton OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSIn 5 June starts, Morton allowed 5+ hits 4 times. Today, he will be starting on extended rest after experiencing right elbow tendinitis following his most recent outing. It doesn’t take a doctor to understand that there could be some negative lingering impact of such an injury, especially without an IL stint to give the issue more time to heal. Atlanta hasn’t been great against right-handed pitching of late, but they are positioned to have some success with the bats.
Kyle Hendricks OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (+130, bet365)
BET365Across his last 4 starts, Hendricks has actually been reasonably effective, posting a 2.45 ERA across 22 innings of work. His 4.14 FIP in that span suggests some regression is in store, but his underlying batted ball and plate discipline metrics illustrate a pitcher who has been competing in the zone while minimizing quality contact against him. Hendricks draws a tough matchup against a surging Toronto offense, but the Blue Jays are also an aggressive offense. If Hendricks can keep the ball in the yard this evening, he should have a good chance to work into the 6th inning.
Rafael Devers OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125, BetMGM)
BETMGMThis season, Devers owns a 133 wRC+ and .282 batting average against southpaws, so even though he has to face JP Sears, this doesn’t profile as an overly difficult matchup for him. In fact, Sears has been rather mediocre against left-handed hitters in 2025, posting a 3.80 FIP and 1.26 WHIP, numbers that are nearly league average. This is good value for a talented hitter playing in a hitter-friendly venue.
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