MLB Player Props for Friday 3/28: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Connor Gillispie, Corey Seager, and Pavin Smith? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, March 28th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Today’s MLB slate of 9 games begins at 4:10 PM ET with the debut of the Rays in their temporary home. The remainder of today’s action is scheduled for a 7:07 PM ET first pitch or later.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Since the beginning of the 2023 season, we are +49.58u on regular season MLB player props in this article. And below, you can find my 3 picks for March 28th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Friday, March 28th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 4:10 PM ET on Friday, March 28th:
- Connor Gillispie Over/Under 14.5 Outs Recorded
- Corey Seager Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Pavin Smith Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Connor Gillispie OVER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-135, BetMGM)
Full disclosure – Gillispie is not talented. Not at all. That being said, neither is the Pittsburgh lineup that he is scheduled to face. Importantly, Gillispie was stretched out to 81 pitches in his final Spring Training outing, completing 5 innings of work despite allowing 6 earned runs.
Miami used Jesus Tinoco, Lake Bachar, and George Soriano each for 25+ pitches yesterday, meaning that none of them are likely to be available this evening. That leaves Ronny Henriquez, Anthony Veneziano, Anthony Bender, and Calvin Faucher to cover 4 innings out of the bullpen, with Tyler Phillips available in long relief if things go sideways early.
Gillispie should be afforded every opportunity to get through 5 frames.
Corey Seager OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145, DraftKings)
Seager demolished RHP in 2024, posting a .291 batting average, .944 OPS, and 161 wRC+. Tonight, he gets an incredibly favorable matchup against Tanner Houck, who doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff against lefties and struggled mightily during Spring Training. Seager went hitless in 4 trips to the plate yesterday, but this is a great bounce-back spot for him.
Pavin Smith OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115, DraftKings)
Smith is likely one of the most talented players that nobody knows about. Playing in a limited role each of the last 3 seasons, he has hit 25 home runs and posted a 98 wRC+ across a span of 204 games. He has walked in 12.2% of his plate appearances (PA) in that stretch, which ranks 22nd out of 366 players who have logged 600+ PA since the beginning of 2021.
Even those aggregate numbers might be doing Smith a disservice. In 2024, he had his most productive season to date, posting a stellar 142 wRC+, with the majority of his trips to the plate coming against RHP. Among 549 players with at least 150 PA last season, Smith was 1 of only 28 hitters to post greater than a 10% walk rate while striking out in 20% of his PA — a list that includes names such as Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ketel Marte, Mookie Betts, and other MVP-caliber talent.
Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily with lefties in recent seasons. Smith should have opportunities to do damage here or get on base and allow his teammates to do damage to get him home.
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