MLB Player Props for Friday, 5/16: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Carlos Rodon, Juan Soto, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, May 16th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
It’s Rivalry Weekend in the MLB! This weekend’s slate includes a number of geographically intense matchups, including The Battle of The Bronx and an in-state matchup between the Astros and Rangers. This should lead to plenty of entertaining moments on the diamond and some good betting opportunities for the community as well!
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat or unlucky if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Friday, May 16th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Friday, May 16th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on Friday, May 16th:
- Carlos Rodon Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Juan Soto Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Carlos Rodon UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+115, DraftKings)
Rodon has been very good this year, but there’s also some evidence that he’s had luck on his side. During the last month, Rodon owns a .222 BABIP, a high LOB%, and hasn’t seen many of his fly balls allowed leave the yard. Part of his good fortune is earned – namely, a 5.3% barrel rate, which means he’s not allowing a tremendous amount of solid contact in the air. However, he has also benefited from some good luck on balls in play, and tonight he has a tough matchup against a Mets offense that has been mashing against southpaws in recent weeks. At plus money, there is some value on the under.
DRAFTKINGSJuan Soto OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115, DraftKings)
On the surface, Soto has a tough matchup against southpaw Carlos Rodon this evening. However, a quick look at his splits reveals that he’s had little trouble against same-sided pitching this season. Entering play on Friday, Soto owns a 184 wRC+ against LHP, including a home run and 10 walks. Soto is always a threat to get on base, which gives him a chance to score a run. Baseball fans know he’s plenty capable with the bat as well, which means he could take care of this prop with one swing, especially with the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. This is good value for a very talented player.
DRAFTKINGSVladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150, DraftKings)
Guerrero got off to a slow start in 2025, but he’s quietly been heating up, hitting .317 with 3 home runs and 9 RBIs across his last 17 games. Tonight, he gets to face Jack Flaherty, who has been allowing a lot of hard contact in the air. Guerrero is a threat to leave the yard this evening. At a minimum, he should be able to put a few good swings on baseballs, which gives him a chance to have a productive overall night at the dish.
DRAFTKINGSImage Credit: Imagn