MLB Player Props Today: Lugo, Steele, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (May 10)
What kind of performances can we expect on Wednesday from Seth Lugo, Justin Steele, Justin Verlander, and Hunter Greene? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Wednesday, May 10, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB player props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Wednesday! Today’s 15-game slate began earlier today with a healthy amount of afternoon baseball, but there are still six contests with a first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EST or later today, for those fans who were stuck at the office all day.
We whiffed on Dinger Tuesday yesterday, but we are still 17-9-2 on non-Home Run props to begin the month of May. We are returning to what has worked for us this year, pitcher props, as we look to get back in the win column. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for May 10!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
1st Inning: 0-3
Dinger Tuesday: 2-6
Hitter: 19-21-1
Outs Recorded: 15-5
Stolen Base: 0-2
Strikeout: 27-15-1
Don’t live in a state with sports betting this baseball season? Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS for $100 sign-up bonus for MLB Fantasy Pick’em.
MLB Player Props Today
- Seth Lugo o4.5 strikeouts
- Justin Steele u5.5 strikeouts
- Justin Verlander + Hunter Greene less than 0.5 1st inning runs allowed
Seth Lugo o4.5 strikeouts (-125), BetMGM
In six turns through the rotation this season, Seth Lugo has eclipsed this market number five times with his lone miss coming against the Chicago Cubs on a day when he simply struggled to put hitters away. Tonight, Lugo gets a favorable matchup against the Minnesota Twins, which rank 29th in strikeout percentage across the last two weeks and 29th in strikeout percentage across the last month. Factor in that Lugo will have the strikeout-friendly Brennan Miller calling balls and strikes in this one and we have a recipe for an over.
Justin Steele u5.5 strikeouts (-135), DraftKings
Entering play on Wednesday, Justin Steele has failed to eclipse this market number in four consecutive outings. In those four starts, Steele has a pedestrian 18.3% strikeout rate, despite the fact that he has been working ahead in the count at a high rate. Simply, he is not generating many swings and misses, especially relative to his early season numbers. In his first three starts, he had a 14.1% swinging-strike rate, compared to 10.1% across his last four starts. The St. Louis Cardinals are far from an elite offense. Still, they are near league-average in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, even with a 9-strikeout performance from Clayton Kershaw skewing the numbers somewhat. Take the under in this spot.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Justin Verlander + Hunter Greene less than 0.5 1st inning runs allowed, PrizePicks
In Justin Verlander’s first start of 2023, he allowed two earned runs across five frames against the Detroit Tigers, appearing to settle in more and more as he got deeper into that contest. According to props.cash, Hunter Greene kept opposing offenses off of the scoreboard in the first inning in 19 of his 24 starts in 2022, making him a strong candidate here as well. Great American Ball Park is known as one of the more hitter-friendly venues in Major League Baseball, but these two pitchers are more than capable of keeping the damage to a minimum in the early going tonight.
Check out more DFS sites with Fantasy baseball pick’em like Boom Fantasy.