MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Monday (5/27)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Nelson Velazquez, Mitchell Parker, and Framber Valdez? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for today – Monday, May 27, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Memorial Day! Today’s holiday slate features 11 games, beginning at 1:05 PM ET in Baltimore with an AL East battle between the Red Sox and Orioles. The action will be spread throughout the day, with a number of mid-afternoon affairs plus one night game in Seattle, with first pitch there scheduled for 9:40 PM ET on MLB Network.
Below are three MLB prop leans for May 27th!
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MLB Player Props Today
Nelson Velazquez Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases
Mitchell Parker Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
Framber Valdez Over/Under 16.5 Outs Recorded
Nelson Velazquez OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-150), bet365
Velazquez went hitless on Sunday against the Rays, but that’s been a rare occurrence of late. Since May 10th, Velazquez has hit safely in 9 of 12 games, resulting in an impressive .286 batting average, .909 OPS, and 153 wRC+.
On Monday, he will get to face Joe Ryan, who has struggled to a 4.42 FIP and allowed a .250 batting average to righties in 2024. This is a good price for a player who is seeing the ball extremely well right now.
Mitchell Parker UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-120), bet365
Parker recorded 18 outs against the Twins last Monday, but he still hasn’t been very good across a larger sample size since joining the big leagues. In May, he’s made 4 starts, allowing 3+ earned runs 3 times, despite only once completing 6 innings of work.
This afternoon, Parker will have to deal with a high-contact, dangerous Atlanta lineup in what appears to be very hitter-friendly weather in Georgia. At first pitch, the temperature is forecasted to be near 80 degrees, with winds likely to aid hitters as the game progresses.
Parker has struggled with his efficiency at times, averaging more than 4 pitches per batter faced in a pair of his starts to date. He has also been pulled with as few as 77 pitches and has only once been allowed to throw more than 83 pitches. Parker would likely have to be unusually good today to pitch into the 6th inning in a tough matchup.
Framber Valdez OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120), bet365
Valdez has been far from elite in 2024, with a 4.32 ERA, 3.91 xERA, 4.13 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP, but this line is still probably too low. Valdez was tattooed for 8 earned runs in his most recent turn through the rotation but still managed to record 15 outs, averaging a healthy 3.44 pitches per batter faced.
During May, Valdez has not faced fewer than 24 batters in an outing. Since the beginning of 2022, Valdez has recorded 17+ outs in 50 of 58 starts in which he’s faced at least 24 batters, including 10 of his last 15 starts and 7 of his last 10 starts.
Seattle tagged Valdez for 5 earned runs earlier this month, but this isn’t a great offense against southpaws, ranking only 18th in OPS and 17th in wRC+ across the last 30 days. It’s always a little bit risky betting pitcher props before we get umpire assignments, but this is a play with too much value at the current price.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 5-0
Outs Recorded: 1-1
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 7-7
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 4-9-2
Combined Record: 21-19-2 (52.5%)
Image Credit: Getty Images