MLB Player Props for Monday, 9/1: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Dylan Cease, Shane Baz, and Patrick Corbin? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, September 1st. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Labor Day! Today’s 13-game MLB slate began earlier this afternoon, but there are still 6 games left to get underway as of this writing, giving people plenty of time to get a few wagers locked in – even if they were barbequing or otherwise enjoying the holiday this morning.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Monday, September 1st!
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Best MLB Player Props for Monday, September 1
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05 PM ET on Monday, September 1st:
- Dylan Cease Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Shane Baz Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- Patrick Corbin Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
Dylan Cease UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125, Caesars)
CAESARSDuring the last 30 days, Cease has been among the least efficient starting pitchers in baseball, averaging 4.42 pitches per batter faced. This evening, he draws a matchup with a Baltimore lineup that hasn’t been particularly aggressive in recent weeks.
There is also the fact that Cease simply hasn’t been that good since the All-Star Break. He’s been a little bit on the unlucky side in some predictive metrics, but there is nothing uncontrollable about his 13.2% walk rate and 53.9% first-pitch strike rate. San Diego’s arm barn isn’t in the best shape ahead of first pitch tonight, but the high-leverage arms are mostly rested. If the Padres have a late lead, the leash for Cease in the 6th inning is likely to be tight. If the Padres don’t have a late lead, Cease probably contributed to that by getting hit around a little bit. This is good value on a pitcher who has struggled to get efficient outs during the second half of the season.
Shane Baz UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-120, Caesars)
CAESARSEntering play on Monday, Baz has allowed 3+ earned runs in 5 consecutive outings and 8 of his 10 starts since the beginning of July. The good news for him is that he draws the Mariners in a favorable travel spot. Seattle will be playing their 4th consecutive road game as part of a 9-game East Coast trip this evening. They have the added difficulty of going from Cleveland to Tampa Bay without an off day for today’s action.
The weather is also on the pitcher-friendly side, with 11 mph winds forecasted to be blowing in from left field around first pitch. George M. Steinbrenner Field hasn’t played as pitcher-friendly as some people expected it would this year, but this is still a stadium that is more wind-sensitive than most normal MLB venues. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Baz turn in a good performance here.
Patrick Corbin UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-180, bet365)
BET365Corbin threw a season-high 8 innings in his most recent start against the Angels. It was only the 2nd time this season in which he’d thrown more than 100 pitches. He had a long leash in that game because he didn’t allow a run, but he was still hit hard – evident from an 11.1% barrel rate and 90.5 average exit velocity allowed.
Tonight, he will have to contend with a patient Arizona offense that ranks 6th in wRC+, 6th in OPS, and 6th in ISO against southpaws during the last 30 days. Texas has a fairly rested arm barn behind Corbin today as well, which could also contribute to an early hook.
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