MLB Player Props (Thur. 3/27): Best Bets & Predictions for Opening Day
What kind of performances can we expect on Opening Day from Wilyer Abreu, Luis Rengifo, and KeBryan Hayes? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Opening Day on Thursday, March 27th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Opening Day has arrived! Technically, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs started the 2025 MLB regular season last week in Tokyo, but tomorrow is the first time this season that we will have a full slate of games across the league. The action will get underway with first pitch from Yankee Stadium at 3:05 PM ET on ESPN as part of a 14-game Thursday slate.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Since the beginning of the 2023 season, we are +49.58u on regular season MLB player props in this article. And below, you can find my 3 picks for Opening Day of the 2025 regular season!
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Best MLB Player Props for 2025 Opening Day
Here are my top player prop bets for 2025 Opening Day, with the first pitch scheduled for 3:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 27th:
- Wilyer Abreu Over/Under 0.5 Hits
- Luis Rengifo Over/Under 0.5 Hits
- KeBryan Hayes Over/Under 0.5 Hits
Wilyer Abreu UNDER 0.5 Hits (+120, BetMGM)
Abreu had his Spring Training debut delayed this season due to a gastrointestinal illness that kept him out of the lineup until March 15th. Upon his return, he looked notably behind his peers. Abreu was routinely overpowered by fastballs up in the zone and struggled overall to have any semblance of timing at the plate.
In 21 plate appearances in Spring Training, Abreu only reached base twice – once via a walk, and once via a home run. Nathan Eovaldi isn’t an elite pitcher, but he has a fastball that sits in the mid-to-upper 90s as part of an arsenal that does a good job attacking lefties. Abreu could struggle early this season as he continues to get back up to speed.
Luis Rengifo UNDER 0.5 Hits (+165, BetMGM)
Rengifo was in the midst of another highly productive campaign in 2024 before a bothersome wrist injury eventually ended his season. He had a stellar .315 batting average and 128 wRC+ through his first 69 games but was forced to shut down for the first 3 weeks of July due to the injury. He returned to the field later that month but played in only 9 games before opting for surgery.
The good news is that Rengifo reportedly had a normal offseason and went through Spring Training without any limitations. The bad news is that hitters often struggle in the immediate aftermath of wrist surgery. Anthony Rendon had wrist surgery during the middle of the season in 2022 and struggled to a 95 wRC+ to open the 2023 season. Lourdes Gurriel had an 86 wRC+ during March and April, following offseason wrist surgery in October 2022.
Thus, it’s not insignificant that Rengifo hit .150 with a 19 wRC+ in Spring Training, even if it was only in 23 plate appearances. He also missed a week of Spring Training due to an illness and then missed time with hamstring tightness in the middle of March — neither of which is particularly conducive to a healthy build-up to Opening Day. Rengifo is plenty talented, but it’s far from ideal for such an overly-aggressive hitter to have seen so few live reps prior to the beginning of the regular season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him get off to a slow start in 2025.
KeBryan Hayes UNDER 0.5 Hits (+155, BetMGM)
If on a team that showed the slightest interest in contending for the playoffs, Hayes would be relegated to starts only against southpaws and when someone else in the infield needed a day off. Of course, in Pittsburgh, he’s likely to see 500+ plate appearances if he stays healthy for the entire season, which includes a tough Opening Day matchup against Sandy Alcantara.
Since the pandemic, these are Hayes’ platoon splits (vs. RHP / vs. LHP)…
2024: .211 BA, 35 wRC+ / .309 BA, 135 wRC+
2023: .260 BA, 91 wRC+ / .294 BA, 119 wRC+
2022: .232 BA, 74 wRC+ / .270 BA, 113 wRC+
2021: .247 BA, 81 wRC+ / .279 BA, 96 wRC+
During those 4 seasons, there are 201 hitters who have logged at least 1,000 plate appearances against RHP. Hayes ranks 200th in wRC+. Myles Straw has been more productive than him for crying out loud.
Hayes had a hit in only 57 of 96 games last season, including games in which he started against LHP. In a tougher spot facing a talented RHP, there is good betting value on Hayes to go hitless to begin the 2025 season.
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