MLB Player Props Today: Nola, Kelly, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (October 23)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Aaron Nola, Merrill Kelly, and Max Scherzer? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Monday, October 23, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Monday! Tonight will be the last multi-game slate of the 2023 MLB season. The action begins at 5:07 p.m. ET with Game 6 of the NLCS between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies. Later in the evening, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will play Game 7 of the ALCS, with the winner advancing to the Fall Classic.
We went 1-2 on our recommendations in this article yesterday, but we are still 23-7 (76.7%) across our last 30 postseason player prop recommendations! During the regular season, we went 103-63-6 (62.6%) across our last 172 recommendations in this article. We were 120-59 (67.2%) on pitcher prop recommendations.
Below are three prop leans for October 23!
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MLB Player Props Today
- Aaron Nola o16.5 Outs Recorded
- Merrill Kelly u5.5 Strikeouts
- Max Scherzer Less Than 4.0 Strikeouts
Aaron Nola o16.5 Outs Recorded (-155), DraftKings
Manager Rob Thompson has mismanaged his bullpen in catastrophic fashion at times in this year’s National League Championship Series. Tonight, he can avoid a lot of those tough decisions by simply riding things out with Aaron Nola, who has been dominant in his first three postseason starts this fall. Entering play on Monday, Nola owns a 0.96 ERA across 18.2 innings of work this October. In his most recent outing, Nola had good velocity and improved spin rates, relative to his regular season averages. He gets another favorable matchup in Game 6 against the same weak-hitting Arizona lineup he dominated in Game 2. Cold weather, pitcher-friendly wind, and a strikeout-friendly umpire give Nola a great opportunity to get through six innings once again, making the over an appealing look here.
Merrill Kelly u5.5 Strikeouts (-140), BetMGM
Merrill Kelly had six strikeouts in Game 2 against the Phillies, but he also gave up four earned runs and was mostly ineffective overall. Tonight, he has to face the same dangerous Philadelphia lineup. This time, Kelly is likely to be on a much shorter leash, with Arizona’s season hanging in the balance. As a result, expect Manager Tony Lovullo to be overzealous with his bullpen management in this contest, which creates a difficult pathway for Kelly to six strikeouts. Even with Tripp Gibson calling balls and strikes, six strikeouts is a tall order in this spot.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Max Scherzer Less Than 4.0 Strikeouts, PrizePicks
Max Scherzer was a diminished version of himself in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series, allowing an abundance of hard-contact and generating very few swings and misses. His velocity was okay, but his spin rates were down, relative to his regular season averages. Earlier this month, Scherzer was campaigning for a spot on the Texas roster for the ALDS, but conceded that his body was not recovering as well as it needed for him to be able to make multiple starts in a series. Tonight, he has to face a dangerous Houston lineup for the second time in less than a week. Based on the information available to the public, there are very few reasons to expect Scherzer to pitch well in Game 7.
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MLB Props Results (Regular Season) – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-11-1
Hitter: 119-110-6
Stolen Base: 1-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 3-2
Outs Recorded: 35-20
Strikeout: 73-34-3
Walk: 1-0
Earned Runs Allowed: 0-0-1
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4