MLB Player Props Today: Gallen, Wheeler, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (October 21)
What kind of performances can we expect on Saturday from Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Saturday, October 21, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Saturday! College Football is in full force today, but there is still an extremely important baseball game to be played between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks this evening on the west coast. First pitch of Game 5 of the National League Championship Series is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS.
We swept our recommendations in this article again yesterday to improve to 20-4 (83.3%) across our last 24 postseason player prop recommendations! During the regular season, we went 103-63-6 (62.6%) across our last 172 recommendations in this article. We were 120-59 (67.2%) on pitcher prop recommendations.
Below are three prop leans for October 21!
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MLB Player Props Today
- Zac Gallen o15.5 Outs Recorded
- Zack Wheeler o16.5 Outs Recorded
- Zack Wheeler Less Than 6.0 Strikeouts
Zac Gallen o15.5 Outs Recorded (-135), BetMGM
The Arizona bullpen was not in great shape heading into Game 4, but it was completely annihilated yesterday, leaving it in extremely poor shape for a pivotal Game 5. Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel are the only two undeniably talented arms in manager Torey Lovullo’s arm barn. Both Sewald and Ginkel have thrown each of the last two days, making it a very risky option to throw them for a third consecutive day. Ryan Thompson is a respectable arm out of Arizona’s bullpen, and he has also thrown each of the last two days. In total, the Diamondbacks used eight different pitchers yesterday, and each of them threw at least 14 pitches. Arizona’s only talented options have thrown in consecutive days.
All of this is to say that Zac Gallen should be afforded an unusually long leash in this contest. Gallen was at his best at home during the regular season, with a 2.32 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP across 102.0 innings of work. He has not been as sharp in recent weeks, but he is his team’s main hope of winning tonight. Gallen will be stretched as long as possible in this spot so long as he can keep the damage against him somewhat limited.
Zack Wheeler o16.5 Outs Recorded (-130), DraftKings
Philadelphia’s bullpen is in a similar situation as Arizona’s tonight in the sense that there has been heavy usage each of the last two days, and manager Rob Thomson is likely looking to avoid dipping into his arm barn for as long as possible in Game 5. I didn’t think Craig Kimbrel was going to be available yesterday, so he almost definitely will not be available tonight after throwing 45 pitches across the last two days. Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, and Orion Kerkering have each thrown in consecutive days as well. Seranthony Dominguez threw 23 pitches in Game 4, Matt Strahm threw 19 pitches, and Gregory Soto tossed 14 pitches in the loss.
Simply, Wheeler is Philadelphia’s best option on the mound for as long as he can go in this spot. Wheeler has completed at least six innings in each of his first three postseason starts, and he has proven himself capable of keeping damage to a minimum in hyper-proximity matchups due to his elite sequencing and deep pitch-mix. He should be able to get 17 outs at a minimum on Saturday night.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Zack Wheeler Less Than 6.0 Strikeouts, PrizePicks
Zack Wheeler has been sensational to begin this postseason, amassing at least eight strikeouts in each of his three October outings. However, this is the first time that he will have to deal with a hyper-proximity matchup. During the regular season, Wheeler had five strikeouts against Atlanta in a hyper-proximity matchup on September 18, which is the only other data point we have from 2023 in this context. Arizona had the 5th-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching during the regular season, and that high-contact approach is likely to serve them well again on Saturday.
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MLB Props Results – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-11-1
Hitter: 119-110-6
Stolen Base: 1-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 3-2
Outs Recorded: 35-20
Strikeout: 73-34-3
Walk: 1-0
Earned Runs Allowed: 0-0-1
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4