MLB Player Props Today: Strider, Gallen, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (July 20)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen, and Kyle Tucker? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Thursday, July 20, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Thursday! Today’s 10-game MLB slate begins early this afternoon with a 12:20 pm first pitch between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves. As a result, we are getting this article published early this morning to allow the betting community as much time as possible to lock in their looks if choosing to tail.
On Monday, we did not lose. On Tuesday, we did not lose. Yesterday, we went 2-1. We will look to stay hot today!
Not counting the All-Star Game, since May 1, we are 105-83-7 on non-Home Run props and 2-4 on Home Run recommendations. We are now 74-40-4 on pitcher prop recommendations for the season. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for July 20!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-9-1
Hitter: 73-72-4
Stolen Base: 0-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 2-1
Outs Recorded: 27-12
Strikeout: 48-26-3
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4
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MLB Player Props Today
- Spencer Strider u8.5 Strikeouts
- Zac Gallen u5.5 Strikeouts
- Kyle Tucker less than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts
Spencer Strider u8.5 Strikeouts (-110), FanDuel
According to props.cash, Spencer Strider has eclipsed this market number in an astounding 14 of 19 starts in 2023. Obviously, looking at the hit-rate alone, the under seems like an option only for fools in today’s matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, the Diamondbacks are a relatively high-contact team – 12 of the last 20 right-handed starting pitchers to face Arizona have gone under their pre-game market number for strikeouts. Brian O’Nora is categorized by some models as a neutral umpire, but he is more strikeout-averse according to my profile on him. The Diamondbacks have the third-lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching since July 6, making the under very playable in this spot.
Zac Gallen u5.5 Strikeouts (-132), FanDuel
In 20 turns through the rotation this year, Zac Gallen has eclipsed this market number 12 times. However, he has major home-and-away splits, with an 80% hit-rate to the over at home, compared to a 40% hit-rate to the over in road games, according to props.cash. Pitching at home, Gallen owns a 2.01 FIP, 0.85 WHIP, and a 30.2% strikeout rate. On the road, he has a 3.95 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, and a 22.3% strikeout rate. Factor in a tough matchup against the Atlanta Braves with a strikeout-averse umpire calling balls and strikes – the under is a good look here.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Kyle Tucker less than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts, PrizePicks
Entering play on Thursday, Kyle Tucker ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate among qualified hitters. Tonight, Tucker will face Hogan Harris, who owns a pedestrian 15.8% strikeout percentage against left-handed batters in 2023. Tucker has struck out in only 15.3% of his plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year – trust him to get the job done for us as we continue targeting these hitter strikeout recommendations.
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