MLB Player Props Today: Ryan, Lynn, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (October 11)
What kind of performances can we expect on Wednesday from Joe Ryan, Lance Lynn, and Brandon Pfaadt? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Wednesday, October 11, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Wednesday! Tonight’s MLB Postseason slate features three games, beginning with a matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies at 5:07 p.m. ET. The other two games have staggered start times at 7:07 p.m. ET and 9:07 p.m. ET, respectively.
Yesterday, the Texas Rangers became the first team to punch their ticket to the League Championship Series. The Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks both have an opportunity to follow suit this evening if they can pull out a win. If looking to avoid sides and totals, the player prop market has plenty of options available for tonight’s action as well!
During the regular season, we went 103-63-6 (62.6%) across our last 172 recommendations in this article. We were 120-59 (67.2%) on pitcher prop recommendations.
Below are three prop leans for October 11!
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MLB Player Props Today
- Joe Ryan u4.5 Strikeouts
- Lance Lynn u3.5 Strikeouts
- Brandon Pfaadt Less Than 3.5 Strikeouts
Joe Ryan u4.5 Strikeouts (-105), BetMGM
During the month of September, only the Atlanta Braves struck out less frequently against right-handed pitching than the Houston Astros. The Astros struck out only twice against Bailey Ober in the series opener. Joe Ryan could be in for a similarly short outing on Wednesday evening with a rested bullpen behind him and the Minnesota season hanging in the balance. There will be no afternoon shadows to aid deception, and the fact that he has not pitched in a live game since September 29 introduces a risk of him being rusty as well. The under is a decent look here.
Lance Lynn u3.5 Strikeouts (+110), FanDuel
There were few pitchers in Major League Baseball less effective than Lance Lynn down the stretch in 2023. Across his final six turns in the rotation, Lynn posted a 6.55 ERA, 7.56 FIP, and 1.45 WHIP. His 14.1% strikeout rate during that stretch would have put him in the 3rd percentile among qualified pitchers for the entire season. The Arizona Diamondbacks struggled to score runs against right-handed pitching late in the regular season, but they were still a high-contact offense even when they were not doing a lot of damage. At plus money, the under is a worthwhile risk in this spot.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Brandon Pfaadt Less Than 3.5 Strikeouts
During the regular season, Brandon Pfaadt posted a 2.37 FIP and had a 29.0% strikeout rate when facing a lineup for the first time in a game. After the lineup turned over, Pfaadt had a 6.37 FIP and a 21.4% strikeout rate his second time facing the same hitters. His numbers regressed even more sharply in the rare instances that he faced a lineup three times in one game. All of that is to say that Pfaadt could be on a very short leash tonight with a rested bullpen behind him and a trip to the National League Championship Series hanging in the balance. It would not be surprising to see him limited to three innings or less on Wednesday night.
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MLB Props Results – Wager Type (Regular Season)
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-11-1
Hitter: 122-114-7
Stolen Base: 2-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 3-2
Outs Recorded: 38-22
Strikeout: 78-35-3
Walk: 1-0
Earned Runs Allowed: 0-0-1
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4