MLB Player Props Today: Rasmussen, Cobb, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (May 11)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Drew Rasmussen, Alex Cobb, and Wander Franco? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Thursday, May 11, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB player props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Thursday! Today’s 6-game slate began earlier today with three afternoon contests, but there are still three more games with a first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EST or later today, for those fans who are just getting off of work.
We cashed both of our strikeout prop recommendations yesterday, improving to 19-10-2 on non-Home Run props to begin the month of May. We are now 44-20-1 on pitcher prop recommendations for the season. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for May 11!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
1st Inning: 0-4
Dinger Tuesday: 2-6
Hitter: 19-21-1
Outs Recorded: 15-5
Stolen Base: 0-2
Strikeout: 29-15-1
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MLB Player Props Today
- Drew Rasmussen u17.5 outs recorded
- Alex Cobb u17.5 outs recorded
- Wander Franco less than 0.5 hitter strikeouts
Drew Rasmussen u17.5 outs recorded (-130), DraftKings
Frankly, there is not much justification for this market number being this high ahead of the first pitch on Thursday. In each of his last five turns through the rotation, Drew Rasmussen has fallen short of completing six innings, including five days ago when he lasted only 5.2 innings against the New York Yankees. Today, he gets a hyper-proximity matchup against the same Bronx Bombers. The Yankees have started to swing the bats better of late, ranking 17th in OPS and seventh in ISO across the last two weeks of action. When a pitcher sees the same offense twice in less than a week, the advantage almost always goes to the offense. Take the under on Rasmussen’s outs here.
Alex Cobb u17.5 outs recorded (+100), DraftKings
Alex Cobb has been outstanding to begin 2023, with a 2.01 ERA through his first seven turns in the rotation. However, his 3.77 xERA and 2.91 FIP portend at least some negative regression in the near future. That regression could come as soon as tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yesterday, the Diamondbacks sent seven left-handed batters to the plate against right-hander Edward Cabrera. Cobb owns a 3.67 FIP, 1.44 WHIP, and a .286 opponent batting average against left-handed batters this season. His negative splits are a rollover from 2022, when his strikeout rate, walk rate, opponent batting average, WHIP, and xFIP were all worse against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters. The under on Cobb’s outs are a good look here, especially at even money.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Wander Franco less than 0.5 hitter strikeouts, PrizePicks
Entering play on Thursday night, Wander Franco owns a career 11.6% strikeout rate at the big-league level. He has been making even more contact to begin the month of May, during which Franco has posted a 10.3% strikeout percentage. Tonight, he will face Domingo German, who had a pedestrian 14.9% strikeout rate against left-handed batters in 2022. Expect Franco to find a way to put the ball in play in each of his plate appearances this evening.
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