MLB Player Props for Thursday, 4/3: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Pavin Smith, Nick Lodolo, and Carlos Carrasco? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, April 3rd. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Thursday’s 5-game MLB slate began earlier this afternoon, but there are still 2 games left as part of tonight’s evening slate, giving bettors time to still get a play or two locked in if they were busy at work during the day. The Diamondbacks and Yankees are scheduled for a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch from Yankee Stadium, with the Reds and Brewers scheduled to get underway shortly thereafter.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Since the beginning of the 2023 season, we are +50.42u on regular season MLB player props in this article. And below, you can find my 3 picks for Thursday, April 3rd!
Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with sports betting? Use our Underdog promo code & PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS for over $1,000 in sign-up bonuses for fantasy pick’em contests today.
Best MLB Player Props for Thursday, April 3rd
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:10 PM ET on Thursday, April 3rd:
- Pavin Smith Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Nick Lodolo Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Carlos Carrasco Over/Under 14.5 Outs Recorded
Pavin Smith OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100, BetMGM)
Smith is one of the most underrated hitters in all of baseball. Playing in a limited role from 2022 to 2024, he has hit 25 home runs and posted a 98 wRC+ across a span of 204 games. He walked in 12.2% of his plate appearances (PA) in that stretch, which ranked 22nd out of 366 players who have logged 600+ PA since the beginning of 2021.
Even those aggregate numbers might be doing Smith a disservice. In 2024, he had his most productive season to date, posting a stellar 142 wRC+, with the majority of his trips to the plate coming against RHP. Among 549 players with at least 150 PA last season, Smith was 1 of only 28 hitters to post greater than a 10% walk rate while striking out in 20% of his PA — a list that includes names such as Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ketel Marte, Mookie Betts, and other MVP-caliber talent.
Smith gets a great matchup tonight against Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled tremendously against LHB in recent seasons. This is good value.
Nick Lodolo UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130, DraftKings)
Nick Lodolo recorded 18 outs in his first start of the season, but he still threw only 86 pitches, and it’s worth noting that he had not been stretched out to more than 70 pitches prior to that outing, so he’s likely still at least 1 start away from being fully stretched out. It’s also worth noting that Milwaukee’s offense is currently seeing the 5th-most pitches per plate appearance so far in 2025, in an admittedly small sample size. Cincinnati’s bullpen is in great shape heading into tonight’s matchup, which means Lodolo could also be on a tight leash if there is any traffic on the basepaths in the 6th inning. There is some value on the under here.
Carlos Carrasco UNDER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-145, DraftKings)
Carlos Carrasco threw 40 pitches in relief on March 29, but tonight will be his first MLB start of the 2025 regular season. During spring training, he never threw more than 61 pitches or completed more than 5 innings in any individual outing.
There are some weather concerns in this game, which could play a factor here, but this is simply a situation in which Carrasco would likely have to be extremely efficient to make it through 5 frames. Arizona is an aggressive offense, but New York’s bullpen is in great shape ahead of first pitch tonight, so Aaron Boone might not want to push Carrasco here, regardless.
Image Credit: Getty Images