MLB Predictions For Today: Boston Red Sox Slight Betting Favorite Versus New York Yankees
The New York Yankees all but buried the Boston Red Sox last night with a sweep of their Saturday doubleheader. Losing three games in a row to New York, the Red Sox find themselves in a steep hole to dig out of for a playoff run. Tonight, the two teams finish their series in primetime on ESPN. Here is a sports betting breakdown of tonight’s ESPN Sunday Night Baseball affair.
Both starters for tonight’s game are returning from the paternity list. The new baby narratives will cancel each other out as David Price starts for the Red Sox and the Yankees answer with J.A. Happ. Happ will pitch as a slight underdog as the Yankees look to bring out the brooms against their division rivals.
MLB Predictions for Today — Red Sox (-112) vs. Yankees (-102), Over/Under 9.5 Runs
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Stat of the Night
During yesterday’s nightcap, Gleyber Torres launched two home runs in the Yankees 6-4 victory. Per MLB Stats Twitter account, Torres is the youngest player since 1908 to have 5+ multi-HR games in a single season. The pair of home runs made it three for Gleyber during the series after he hit a Grand Slam on Friday night.
As a team, the Yankees possess a .203 ISO to complement their 186 home runs. The Yankees also boast an 18.2 HR/FB% — the second-highest mark in the MLB behind the Chicago Cubs. Yankee Stadium is partly responsible for the lofty rate when one considers the shallow porches in both right field and left field.
Pitching Primer
David Price had been putting together an excellent 2019 up until recently. In his previous three starts, Price ceded 13 earned runs over 14 and 1/3 innings. He has been hit around over that stretch — giving up 21 hits and three home runs. The Yankees missed Price in their previous series and will look to take advantage fo another left-handed Red Sox starter.
In 2019, Price is basically a brick wall to lefties with a .075 ISO, 2.8 BB%, and 51.0 GB%. Unfortunately for Price, and the Red Sox, the Yankees can build a lineup with seven righties even after the injuries to Edwin Encarnacion and Aaron Hicks. While the batting order for the Yankees will not be their best, Price’s struggles with right-handed hitters are pronounced. Price strikes out righties at a very high rate (29.8%) but struggles with power — allowing a .184 ISO, 39.1 FB%, and 37.3 Hard% this season to that side of the plate. Four of the projected starting Yankees carry an ISO higher than .180 against lefties.
On the other side, J.A. Happ pitches at home fresh off the birth of a new child. Happ mirrors the season of David Price without the strikeouts (19.1%). He greatly struggles with right-handed power bats but induces a lot of ground balls against lefties (55.2%). Happ has also recently given up runs — yielding 11 earned runs in his previous three starts over 14 and 1/3 innings. Happ will also face a lineup with likely six righties — four of which bring an ISO above .230. The Red Sox team ISO for tonight’s RotoGrinders projected lineup possesses a robust .241 ISO.
The Red Sox lineup is configured to eviscerate left-handed pitching. J.A. Happ is considered an average southpaw, at best. With the injuries from yesterday relative to tonight’s pitching matchup, the Red Sox probably have the edge. The Yankees have a considerable bullpen edge but might not get to that point if Happ cannot keep the Red Sox at bay.
Prop Shop – Home Run Props on FanDuel Sportsbook
As mentioned in the previous section, both pitchers struggle with right-handed power bats. Tonight’s game provides a smorgasbord of options if looking to capitalize on this weakness. I will pick one for each side and attempt to be as price-sensitive as possible considering the unlikelihood of a home run event.
On the Red Sox side, Xander Bogaerts is having a career year. Cleary the top shortstop in the American League, Bogaerts can do it all — including hitting extra-base hits against left-handed pitching. Bogaerts .324 ISO against southpaws this season is the second-highest behind perennial lefty masher J.D Martinez. Martinez’s price will always reflect his track record while Bogaerts is not widely considered a slugger. Bogaerts brings a +310 tag while teammate J.D. Martinez sits at +145.
Across the diamond, many options are present to pick out a home run or two against David Price. Aaron Judge (+210) is the most noted slugger while Gleyber Torres (+310) is having a powerful weekend if you want to play the recency bias game. Gio Urshela carries a more profitable price of +650 if looking to speculate on his heavy fly ball rate in a small sample against lefties this season (40.0%).
The MLB Pick — Red Sox -112 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds).
After breaking down the pitching matchup and considering the injuries to Aaron Hicks and Edwin Encarnacion, the opening line slightly tilts towards the Red Sox for a reason. I want to jump on this line immediately while the Red Sox price is down. While Price can, and has recently, give up plenty of runs, the Red Sox lineup could overwhelm J.A. Happ before bullpens even become an issue. I would predict money to move this line towards the Red Sox before the first pitch.
Before this line moves, give me the Boston Red Sox to win at -112 on FanDuel Sportsbook for four wins in a row.
Check back this week for more MLB Predictions.
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