MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Monday, August 12th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
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All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Monday, August 12th
- Framber Valdez MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Taj Bradley MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (DEMON)
- Blake Snell MORE Than 2.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
Framber Valdez MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Tampa’s projected lineup against lefties is pretty bad. It has just a .292 wOBA and .132 ISO, while Framber Valdez is allowing just a .296 wOBA and .110 ISO on a 60.2% ground-ball rate. He doesn’t get into the 7th inning often, but he can stretch out his leash by performing well, which he can do here. He’s surpassed 18 outs in just 3 of his last 5 starts but threw 95+ pitches in all of those starts — 7 of his last 8, including 3 starts with over 100 pitches. It’s a good bet that 95 pitches gets him the volume tonight for us to get there, as we have Valdez projected for 18.4 outs. Add the DEMON juice, and this is my favorite play on the board, despite the boom/bust nature of it.
Taj Bradley MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (DEMON)
Taj Bradley is very matchup-dependent. He’s a fantastic strikeout pitcher but allows a 10.8% barrel rate when contact is made. The Astros should make a lot of contact tonight, as their projected lineup has just an 18.6% K rate against righties, so getting to 3 ER is easier than we might think because of Bradley’s power prevention issues and the high frequency of contact that the Astros force. We have Bradley projected for 2.1 ERs allowed, so the DEMON boost comes in handy here, as this is a bit of a stretch, according to the projections, but the logic checks out.
Blake Snell MORE Than 2.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
Blake Snell pitches away from power a lot. These Braves strike out a decent amount, so they will chase a bit, but their projected lineup also has an 8.5% BB rate against lefties to Snell’s baked-in 9.8% rate. I like Snell for run prevention tonight, as does Vegas’ 3.25 implied total, so Snell should get a lot of volume. And with volume for Snell comes a lot of walks, as he’s averaging 3.59 BB/9. I think Snell is good for 6 innings tonight, so we should think he’s good for 3+ BBs. We have him projected for 2.4 BBs in 16.3 outs, but — again — I like the over on his volume projection. Snell’s walks have been down this year, but he’s still only throwing 44.4% of his pitches in the zone this season, which is below his 45.3% career rate. A well-disciplined Braves lineup should get some free passes.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
It’s a weird slate where PrizePicks is over-projecting pitching for strikeouts and outs, making it difficult for us to exploit them in those categories, but we found some strong plays here to mix in with the standard projections that our pick ‘em tool will have us attack.
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