MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Monday, August 19th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match. Also, check out more apps like PrizePicks.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Underdog promo code and Sleeper promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Monday, August 19th
- Seth Lugo MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Taj Bradley MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (DEMON) and LESS Than 38.5 Fantasy Points
- Kevin Gausman LESS Than 33.5 Fantasy Points
- Carson Fulmer MORE Than 3.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
Seth Lugo MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
We have Lugo conservatively projected for 17.6 outs — probably because he hasn’t lasted very long in his last 2 starts. But before his last 2 starts, he has 24, 19, and 27 outs. The Royals want Lugo to go 7 innings and are letting him throw 100 pitches. The Angels projected lineup’s .274 wOBA and .115 ISO against righties shouldn’t get to him in the pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium. Lugo should get into the 7th inning often enough for us to get there.
Taj Bradley MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (DEMON) and LESS Than 38.5 Fantasy Points
The A’s strike out a ton, but they have a lot of pop. Their projected lineup has 5 barrel rates around 10% or higher against righties, while Bradley allows a 10.6% barrel rate and 48.8% hard-hit rate. Sure, he’s a great strikeout pitcher, but when he gets hit, he gets smashed, so the A’s should put some runs on the board. We have Bradley projected to allow just 2.0 earned runs, but I’m going against this. In turn, I don’t think Bradley will last very long against this power, which is not long enough to compile nearly 40 fantasy points. We have him projected for just 34.9 fantasy points, and I think that’s a hair too high. Bradley hasn’t seen the 6th inning in any of his last 3 starts, allowing 15 ER over those 14 IP.
Kevin Gausman LESS Than 33.5 Fantasy Points
I don’t respect the Reds offense much away from Cincinnati, but Rogers is a decent place to hit, and Gausman is giving up a 10.7% barrel rate on a 79% contact rate. The Reds have enough power to get to him. Gausman should last long because the Jays pen is so terrible that he gets a long leash, but this just hurts his ER total without the strikeout stuff. Gausman is just striking out 21.2% of hitters. Assuming the Reds get some runs, he shouldn’t get enough Ks tonight. We have Gausman projected for 33.1 fantasy points, so this is another tight squeeze but one to which we should have some exposure.
Carson Fulmer MORE Than 3.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
I think 3.5 is just too low for a pitcher with 8.57 K/9. Sure, Fulmer doesn’t last very long, but he has a max pitch count in the range of 90, so that should be enough for him to get to 4 Ks. If the Angels had a decent bullpen, I wouldn’t trust the leash, but their bullpen is trash, so the Angels are letting starters stay out longer than they maybe should be pitching. This is a great spot to get to 4 Ks despite our 3.2 projection.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
We’re embracing a bit more risk if we play PrizePicks tonight, as the projections over there are pretty efficient. I recommend a very low volume tonight. I normally play about 10 total units across 12-15 contests. I might not even play 5 units in total.
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