MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Monday, July 29th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
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All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Sleeper promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Monday, July 29th
- Paul Skenes MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Nick Pivetta MORE Than 7.5 Strikeouts (DEMON) and MORE than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (DEMON)
- Nathan Eovaldi MORE Than 5.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Luis Gil MORE Than 2.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
- Chris Flexen MORE Than 1.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
Paul Skenes MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Paul Skenes isn’t just a per-inning stud. He’s getting a ton of volume with a long leash on his pitch count:
July 23 – 25 outs on 104 pitches
July 11 – 21 on 99
July 5 – 21 on 107
June 29 – 18 on 102
June 23 – 21 on 98
June 17 – 18 on 96
June 11 – 19 on 103
That’s 96+ pitches in 7 consecutive starts and 7+ IP in 4 of his last 5 starts, all while positing a super-efficient and legitimately elite 29.4% K-BB rate. The Astros don’t strike out, but they’re not a very potent offense, either, hitting for just a .328 wOBA and .156 ISO against righties. Skenes’ 4.6% BB rate suggests that he will be very efficient with his high pitch count, while the Astros have just a 3.41 implied total, so we have him projected for 18.4 outs. A DEMON boost for Skenes’ outs against just about anyone should be in the range of 19.5, so we’re getting a good discount here.
Nick Pivetta MORE Than 7.5 Strikeouts (DEMON) and MORE than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (DEMON)
The Mariners made some noise by adding Randy Arozarena, but they added a lot of his strikeouts with his power to the equation. Seattle has a 27.4% K rate against righties, while Nick Pivetta has a 29.5% K rate. Pivetta’s Achilles heel is power, and the Mariners have a good amount of it, but Pivetta has struck out 8+ in 3 of his last 4 starts, going 6+ IP in each of those 3. He should get the volume to get to 8 Ks against them, as we have him projected for 7.3 Ks. That said, with the volume, should come some runs. We have Pivetta projected to give up 2.2 earned runs. This latter play on the earned runs is tighter, but the Mariners’ 11.9% barrel rate against righties to Pivetta’s 9.9% allowed supply a 4.3 implied total, suggesting that Pivetta shouldn’t have a clean game, despite the volume and Ks.
Nathan Eovaldi MORE Than 5.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
Nathan Eovaldi is projected for 5.2 Ks, but I actually prefer this play to Pivetta’s MORE than 7.5, simply because 6 Ks is far more attainable in the general sense than 8. The Cardinals projected lineup has a lower 22.6% K rate against righties, but Eovaldi’s K rate is up to 24.6% – right at that point where they’re baked-in enough, considering that he’s getting a lot of volume. Eovaldi has thrown 46 IP over his last 7 starts, so there isn’t much of a hurdle in him getting MORE than 5.5 Ks.
Luis Gil MORE Than 2.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
This dude just can’t consistently throw strikes. Luis Gil has an 11.4% BB rate, and the Yankees keep giving him a leash that’s too long, just giving us more opportunity to compile the walks allowed. Gil’s thrown 17.2 IP over his last 3 starts because he’s only walked two batters total over that stretch, but the Phillies projected lineup brings an 8.2% BB rate against righties to the table, while Gil’s allowed 3+ walks in 9 of 20 starts this season. We have Gil projected for 2.4 BBs allowed.
Chris Flexen MORE Than 1.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
Chris Flexen has allowed a 9.1% BB rate this season and has faced 23+ batters in 7 consecutive starts in a season where he’s allowed 3.64 BB/9. Do the math: 1.5 is just too low of a projection that we have to attack it, and our 1.8 projection says that this is one of the best pays on the board. Don’t overthink this one because the Royals don’t walk very much.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
There is a ton of great DEMON juice on this slate and we didn’t even get into hitting in this space today. Consult our pick‘em tool for up-to-date standard projections to attack and sprinkle around these DEMONs in a high-volume day to boost our payouts.
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