MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Monday, July 1st
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match. Also, check out more apps like PrizePicks.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Monday, July 1st
- Jose Altuve MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- MacKenzie Gore MORE Than 5.5 Hits Allowed (DEMON) and LESS Than 17.0 Outs
- J.D. Martinez MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- Austin Gomber LESS Than 15.5 Outs
- David Peterson LESS Than 17.5 Outs
Jose Altuve MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Opposing starter Yariel Rodriguez has just a 5.9% K-BB rate against 46 right-handed batters faced, allowing a .237 ISO on a 10.7% barrel rate. Altuve has seen his wOBA and ISO go down, but his barrel, fly-ball, and line drive rates are up a slight tick from 2023, so there’s regression toward the mean coming. Facing a guy who can’t find the strike zone, doesn’t miss bats, and gets hit hard and well (and often) is a fantastic situation for Altuve, who’s projected by us for 2.2 total bases.
MacKenzie Gore MORE Than 5.5 Hits Allowed (DEMON) and LESS Than 17.0 Outs
Gore is having a bit of a lucky season. His .123 ISO allowed is despite a 32.4% line-drive rate. So, while his barrel rate is way down from 2023 and his .364 BABIP is unlucky, he’s getting hit very well when he gets hit. I don’t like pitchers who are dependent on the strikeout against the Mets because their projected lineup has a K rate of just 21% against LHP since the start of the 2023 season, with a collective 11.1% barrel rate on a 53% hard-hit rate. This is bad news for Gore, who’s only a year removed from allowing a 12.1% barrel rate. Gore’s kryptonite is high-power contact in bulk, and the Mets can supply that, so we have him projected for 6.7 hits allowed and just 15.9 outs.
J.D. Martinez MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Back to picking on Gore, who’s allowed a 10.1% barrel rate to righties since the start of the 2023 season on a 48% hard-hit rate and 28.9% fly-ball rate, we’re gonna go to Martinez for power. Martinez has team highs in barrel (18.5%), hard-hit (64.7%), and fly-ball (35.3%) rates over that stretch against LHP. We have Martinez projected for 2.4 total bases.
Austin Gomber LESS Than 15.5 Outs
Our disaster situation on the day, though, belongs to Gomber against the Brewers in Coors Field. Gomber’s allowed a 10.6% barrel rate. The Brewers aren’t very good against LHP, but they’ll be the chalk in DFS for a reason: they’re in a ceiling spot in Coors. Gomber’s pitched a ton of innings this season, but the Brewers come in with an 11.4% BB rate against LHP, so it will be difficult for Gomber to be economical with his pitches on top of the power risks. Our fantasy pick’em tool has this as the best play on the slate, as we have him projected for just 14.1 outs. His floor is incredibly low, and his ceiling isn’t higher than 17-18 outs. Great play.
David Peterson LESS Than 17.5 Outs
The Nationals are an ultra-high-contact team. Their projected lineup has just a 16.1% K rate and 5.2% BB rate against LHP since the start of the 2023 season, while Peterson has just a 5.8% K-BB rate this season and is averaging just 90.8 pitches per start. And he’s getting hit hard, while often. Peterson is allowing a 54.8% hard-hit rate and an 8.3% barrel rate. The Nats should knock him around, so we have him projected for just 16 outs. He might give up many hits and runs, but he’ll get knocked around a lot to run up the pitch count and get into trouble.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
3-game slates aren’t great for DFS, but we have a really nice little day to run a few fantasy pick’em contests. There are tons of solid plays on the board. Consult our fantasy pick’em tool and the projections to find more, but these are great places to start.
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