MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Sunday, July 21st
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match. Also, check out more apps like PrizePicks.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Sunday, July 21st
- Seth Lugo MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Andrew Heaney LESS Than 6.0 Strikeouts
- Joey Estes MORE Than 4.0 Strikeouts
- Jake Irvin LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts
- Marcus Stroman MORE Than 2.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
Seth Lugo MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
We have Seth Lugo projected for 19.1 outs against the lowly White Sox. It’s forecast to be 80 degrees with a 62-degree dew point in Kansas City at first pitch, so we’re not over the threshold where it becomes a great hitting park. And man, the Sox are nauseating. Chicago’s projected lineup has a .297 wOBA and .137 ISO against righties, while Lugo has allowed just a .283 wOBA and .125 ISO, averaging nearly 96 pitches per start. That pitch count has hit 93 or more in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Sox lineup has just a 6.1% BB rate to Lugo’s 5.8%, so Lugo should be economical enough in this one to go deep, while the Sox don’t have the firepower to knock him out of the game.
Andrew Heaney LESS Than 6.0 Strikeouts
Andrew Heaney isn’t the strikeout pitcher he used to be. He’s sitting at a respectable 9.19 K/9 but only averaging 83.58 pitches per start, so he shouldn’t go deep enough in this game to hit 6 Ks despite the Orioles’ propensity to strike out a lot. He’s logged under 6 Ks in 4 of his last 7 starts and in 7 of his last 11.
Joey Estes MORE Than 4.0 Strikeouts
Joey Estes has a low 18.6% K rate, and the Angels’ projected lineup has just a 22.7% K rate against righties. But the Angels’ lineup also has just a .289 wOBA and .132 ISO against righties. That’s right. They’re worse against righties than the White Sox. Estes has gone 6+ IP in 2 of his last 3 starts and in 3 of his last 5, so the A’s want him to go deep if he’s rolling, and there’s a good shot that the Angels let him roll them over.
Jake Irvin LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts
On the flip side, the Reds do strike out a lot. Their projected lineup has a 26.1% K rate against righties. But Jake Irvin is pitching over his head recently. His 3.87 xERA and 6% BB rate are respectable, but his 21.2% K rate and 8.6% barrel rate allowed are not. The Reds could simply just knock him out of the game with power, so we have Irvin projected for 5.3 Ks, which I think is a bit aggressive, and the pick ‘em tool agrees with me.
Marcus Stroman MORE Than 2.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
Marcus Stroman has a whopping 10.5% BB rate and faces a Rays projected lineup with a decent 7.7% rate. Stroman’s 4.03 BB/9 and 45.1% zone% are both career worsts, signifying that he might be cooked at 33 years old without strikeout stuff. We have Stroman projected for 3.0 walks on the day, so the DEMON juice is juicy.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
Early article because it’s Sunday, so we don’t have hitting DEMON projections available yet. Total Bases projections should be really juicy judging by the standard projections currently out for us.
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