MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Thursday, July 25th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match. Also, check out more apps like PrizePicks.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Sleeper promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Thursday, July 25th
- Gunnar Henderson MORE Than 8.0 Fantasy Points
- Chris Bassitt MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (DEMON)
- Clayton Kershaw MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts and LESS Than 1.5 Walks Allowed
- Logan Webb LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Gunnar Henderson MORE Than 8.0 Fantasy Points
One of the league’s best hitters in Gunnar Henderson against one of the league’s worst starters in Roddery Munoz is an excellent formula for double-digit hitting fantasy points. It’s a great park for pitching, but Munoz is that bad. He has just a 20.2% K rate to a 12.3% BB rate, allowing a 10.7% barrel rate to lefties. On contact, his ground-ball rate is only 26.7% against lefties, while Henderson has a 14.9% barrel rate on a 67.3% hard-hit rate, 26.9% fly-ball rate, and 24% line-drive rate against righties and is still at the top of the order on the road, guaranteed 9 innings of plate appearances. We have Henderson projected for 13.0 fantasy points.
Chris Bassitt MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (DEMON)
Get it while it’s hot. Chris Bassitt is awful against lefties. He has just an 18.2% K rate to an 11.1% BB rate, and a 10.8% barrel rate allowed to them — an 11.6% barrel rate since the start of the 2023 season. The Rays are a three-true-outcome team that will likely throw five lefties at Bassitt, including power hitters Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe. Bassitt goes 5+ IP, even when he’s bad, so the Lowes should get to face him three times. We have Bassitt projected for exactly 2.5 ER, so the DEMON juice is clutch here.
Clayton Kershaw MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts and LESS Than 1.5 Walks Allowed
Clayton Kershaw was struggling with righty power the last we saw him, and the Giants have righty power. San Francisco will likely throw eight righties at Kershaw today. But Kershaw also had a 28.4% K rate against righties last season. The pitch count is a legitimate concern in a season debut after a long injury layoff, but we have him projected for 79, which should be enough to have a good shot at 6-7 Ks. The bigger risk in the pitch count will be Kershaw’s approach: will he pitch to contact to stretch out the pitch count? If so, 5.0 is just still a bit low, as we have him projected for 6.0 Ks.
If you’re hung up on Kershaw’s approach, we only have him projected for 1.1 walks today, so going LESS than 1.5 is a decent play if he’s pitching to contact. I think one of these two things are likely to happen: Kershaw hitting 6 Ks or Kershaw walking fewer than 2. I think both are more likely to hit than both missing.
Logan Webb LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Logan Webb is struggling a little bit. Over the last 30 days, he’s faced 105 batters and only struck out 19.5% of them, which is too much contact to allow to the Dodgers. This season, he’s allowed an 8.2% barrel rate, which is too much power to allow to the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium. The tough part of this play is that the Giants are leaving him in to get whacked around, as he’s had 6+ IP in 13 of his last 14 starts. The Dodgers projected lineup has just a 22.6% K rate against righties, and the 34.8% rate of Chris Taylor might be absent from the actual lineup. This is a really bad spot to find 6 Ks. A great spot for 4-5. We have Webb projected for 4.7.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
Not many DEMONs are posted yet, but the standard projections from PrizePicks are really tight, so I don’t anticipate great juice, other than hitter fantasy points and maybe total bases. This is the epitome of a low-volume day.
Image Credit: Getty Images