MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Thursday, July 4th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
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All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Thursday, July 4th
- Yordan Alvarez MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- Charlie Morton MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Corbin Burnes LESS Than 7.5 Strikeouts and LESS Than 41.0 Fantasy Points
- Chris Bassitt MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Jake Irvin LESS Than 30.5 Fantasy Points
Yordan Alvarez MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
There isn’t much hitting to attack today. The best is one of the best lefties in the game against Chris Bassitt, who’s surrendered an 11.8% barrel rate to lefties on a 30.5% fly-ball rate since the start of the 2023 season. Alvarez has a .262 ISO on a 14.3% barrel rate against LHP this season. The numbers being a bit low for him says that he’s more of a regression candidate toward the mean of a .300 ISO on a 17% barrel rate than someone from which we should stay away until things get better. We have him projected for 2.6 total bases.
Charlie Morton MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
The projected lineup for the Giants has a 24.8% K rate against RHP since the start of the 2023 season. Morton still has just enough left in the tank to exploit this. His 24.4% K rate this season isn’t impressive in a vacuum, but it’s probably good enough for him to get to 7 Ks. We have him projected for 6.7, and he’s struck out 7+ in 2 of his last 3 starts. The DEMON juice makes this a top play.
Corbin Burnes LESS Than 7.5 Strikeouts and LESS Than 41.0 Fantasy Points
I’m not gonna pretend that I love this play. I’m not gonna pretend that I understand this play. I’m just gonna say that 7.5 Ks and 41 fantasy points are huge numbers that we should want to attack generally for LESS than without elite pitching — and Burnes isn’t elite anymore. What makes this a top play is simply that our projections hate Burnes this afternoon, relative to PrizePicks. We have him projected for just 6 Ks and 35.8 fantasy points.
Chris Bassitt MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Bassitt can get in trouble with Yordan Alvarez, but unless Alvarez tags him for multiple homers, the Astros just don’t have the lefties to attack Bassitt, unless we’re scared of Jon Singleton and Joey Loperfido cracking the lineup. Bassitt is an ace against righties — 25.7% K rate, 5.9% BB rate, 3% barrel rate allowed — so if the Astros roll out 8 righties, I’m all in on Bassitt to get more than 18 outs. We have him projected for 17.9 outs, but I will wait for the lineup to pull this trigger.
Jake Irvin LESS Than 30.5 Fantasy Points
This is simple. Irvin is a 25-point kind of pitcher, and he’s facing a good lineup while projected by PrizePicks for over 30 fantasy points. Don’t overanalyze this. We have Irvin pretty aggressively projected for 26.5 fantasy points, which is still far under the PrizePicks projection.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
Pitching, pitching, pitching. That’s the name of the game on PrizePicks today. I wouldn’t even look out for soft hitter DEMONs. Just smash on the pitching because that’s where so much of the edge lies, according to our PrizePicks tool.
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