MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Tuesday, May 21st
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Tuesday, May 21st
- Ranger Suarez MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Logan Webb MORE Than 5.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Robert Gasser MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Carlos Carrasco LESS Than 16.5 Outs and 4.0 Strikeouts
- Joey Loperfido MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Ranger Suarez MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
In all honesty, I’m not in love with this play because of the respect I personally have for Texas, but when there’s a DEMON boost to 6.5 Ks and we have the guy projected for 6.2, I have to listen up. Overall, Suarez is a near-average-strikeout pitcher this season (8.85 K/9), but he’s been all over the place, so there is a ceiling. He’s hit at least 7 Ks in 5 of 9 starts and carries a nice 26.7% K rate on the season. The Rangers’ projected lineup only has a 21.9% K rate against LHP, but Suarez has shown he can get to 7 against just about anyone.
Logan Webb MORE Than 5.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
Despite Webb’s 7.88 K/9, I prefer the DEMON boost to 5.5 because the Pirates’ projected lineup has a 24.6% K rate against RHP and Webb has a very long leash. He can get the 7 innings necessary to get to 6 Ks. He’s had 7 IP in half of his 10 starts this season, and this is a great matchup, so there’s a high probability that he goes 7+ here. The ballpark is a slight downgrade from Oracle, but it’s still a great park in which to pitch. We have Webb projected for 5.2 Ks.
Robert Gasser MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
They’re not as bad as my White Sox or the Rockies, and that’s hiding how bad the Marlins really are. Miami’s projected lineup only has a .263 wOBA and .128 ISO against LHP this season, while Gasser has only allowed 1 singular earned run through 11 IP in his 2 starts this season and still has yet to give up a barrel through 42 batters faced. Regression is coming for the rookie, but it shouldn’t come tonight. Not against this team in this amazingly pitcher-friendly ballpark. He should at least get deep into the 6th inning, as we have Gasser projected for 16.2 outs, making his MORE than 15.5 DEMON play one of the best values on the board.
Carlos Carrasco LESS Than 16.5 Outs and 4.0 Strikeouts
Carrasco is one of the worst pitchers in baseball — 4.99 SIERA, 6.65 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 1.73 HR/9 allowed on a 9.6% barrel rate. He’s been logging innings lately, but this is a terrible spot against a Mets projected lineup with only a 20.8% K rate to go with an 8.4% barrel rate against RHP. They should get a lot of good wood on Carrasco. As I was writing this, PrizePicks lowered their projection from 17.0 to 16.5, so they know they goofed. We have Carrasco projected for just 14.8 outs and 3.6 Ks. PrizePicks also has him projected for 26.5 fantasy points, while we have him at 20.7, so there’s another great play for us.
Joey Loperfido MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Loperfido is a solid MLB-level hitter on contact. His only issue is contact, and that’ll likely be an issue for some time. Facing a pitcher in Griffin Canning who only has a 16.7% K rate this season, this is a great spot for Loperfido to show off those great on-contact skills he used to dominate Triple-A for 27 extra-base hits in 260 plate appearances, amounting to a .546 SLG%. We have Loperfido projected for 1.4 total bases in this high-contact scenario.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
If we don’t want to load up on too many DEMON boosts, there are a few soft projections offered by PrizePicks in the FPTS category for pitchers and hitters, pitcher strikeouts, and pitcher outs to lessen our variance, but I struggle to see myself playing contests with fewer than 2 DEMON boosts today — even in 4-Pick flexes. The plays mentioned in this space are where I’m going hardest, but Dodgers MORE than FPTS, Mets LESS than hitter strikeouts, and Orioles MORE than total bases are also great targets.
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