Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Ravens vs. Browns
It has been more than three months since the Baltimore Ravens opened the season with a 38-6 victory over the Cleveland Browns. Surprisingly, it’s the Ravens, not the Browns, who are on the outside looking in when it comes to the AFC wild card hunt. A loss against the Browns would be devastating to the Ravens’ playoff hopes, dropping their playoff chances from 63% to 37%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Favored by three points at online sportsbooks, oddsmakers like Baltimore’s chances stay in the playoff race and win this AFC North showdown on Monday Night Football.
[Bet Under 45.5 Points at BetMGM]
Monday Night Football Odds: Ravens at Browns
Looking to extend their four-game win streak, Baker Mayfield and the Browns are eager to prove that the season-opener was merely a fluke. Before last week, it’d be fair to ask if the Browns were really as good as their record suggests. After all, they had just come off wins against Houston, Philadelphia and Jacksonville—three teams that are now a combined 9-28-1. Moreover, Cleveland’s point differential during that span was only +10 points. Speaking of point differentials, the Cleveland Browns are the only current playoff team from either conference who has allowed more points than they’ve scored this season. Might this be a warning sign to bettors?
Mayfield & Co. tried their best to put those concerns to rest as they beat the Tennesse Titans 41-35 in Week 13. The score was much closer than the game, which Cleveland was in control of for its entirety. Mayfield torched the Titans secondary as soon as things kicked off, throwing a career-high four touchdowns and 286 yards in the first half alone.
So, I suppose the question bettors must answer is how much have the teams changed since Week 1. My guess? Less than we think.
The betting market certainly overestimated the Ravens during the first half of the season. Remember when oddsmakers made the Ravens 3.5-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs? Yeah, that was a mistake; still, I’m not convinced that the Ravens aren’t, dare I say, the AFC’s second-best team. Lamar Jackson isn’t playing anywhere close to the MVP level he was this time last season, but the Ravens defense has remained stout, ranking 4th against the run, 9th against the pass, and 7th overall, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics. On offense, Baltimore is 8th in Rush DVOA. Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and whomever else the Ravens give the ball to in the backfield should have no problem running efficiently against a Browns defense that has allowed the third-highest percentage of successful run plays to opposing offenses.
Ravens vs. Browns MNF Picks
If you checked out my Week 14 picks, you already know that I grabbed the Ravens -2.5 at the beginning of the week. That line has since stretched an entire point to -3.5. I won’t add any bets at this number, but if you were to twist my arm, I’d follow the steam and take the Ravens. For what it’s worth, I don’t think the spread will move to -4 but it might shorten back to -3 before Monday Night Football kicks off. Again, the Browns haven’t done enough to make me a believer. Several of their games have been in treacherous weather, making it a challenge to honestly assess where this team, without OBJ, stands among AFC contenders.
Though I’m uninterested in either team at the current 3.5-point spread, I will add an Over/Under bet to my Monday Night Football betting card. According to Kevin Roth’s NFL weather forecast, winds could be upwards of 20 mph at FirstEnergy Stadium. As winds move into Cleveland, they have also moved the game total at online sportsbooks. The total has fallen to 45.5 after reaching a mid-week peak of 47.5. Per Scores and Odds, 55% of cash is on the Over.
Despite the movement, I’m content betting Under 45.5 even if it’s not the best number. Running the ball at the second and third-highest rate, respectively, the Browns and Ravens are two of the slowest-paced teams in the NFL. In fact, averaging 56.58 plays per game, no offense runs fewer plays than Baltimore. If the wind becomes a factor tonight, we should see an increased emphasis to establish the run.
When it comes to the Browns’ passing game, Baker Mayfield has only thrown for more than 200 yards once in his last three tries against Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens have consistently taken away Mayfield’s no. 1 option during that span, holding Beckham to no more than three receptions and 44 yards in a single outing. As a result, Mayfield has leaned heavily on Jarvis Landry, but that might not be so easy to do when Beckham isn’t on the field to garner most of the Ravens’ attention.
Tonight, Baltimore’s secondary will focus on shutting down Landry, leaving Mayfield throwing to the likes of wide receivers Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones, and a duo of backup tight ends filling in for injured Austin Hooper. Moving the ball against the Ravens will be an even taller task for Mayfield than it was before. If Jackson and Dobbins can sprint to an early lead and force the Browns to play from behind, Mayfield will have his hands full against a defense that blitzes an NFL-high 42.2% of the time.
Monday Night Football Pick: UNDER 45.5
Ravens-Browns Player Props
The player props listed below are from BetMGM and accurate as of 1pm ET. Odds are subject to change.
Jackson OVER 10.5 (+110) Rush Attempts – We’ve already talked about the weather, which could force both teams to run the ball more than they originally planned. It’s also worth noting that Jackson has rushed the ball at minimum 11 times in each of his last five games (13/13/11/13/16). It’s not hard to see how oddsmakers at BetMGM created this prop line: Jackson has rushed the ball 116 times through 11 games, an average of 10.54 attempts per game. There was a span in October where Jackson, who was dealing with a knee injury at the time, was a little more hesitant to run. In Week 5, Jackson ran only twice against the Bengals. That stretch is deflating this line just enough to give us a little value on the Over.
Dobbins OVER 10.5 (-125) Rush Attempts – Handing the ball to Dobbins at least 11 times in four of his last five games, the Ravens are giving the ball to their rookie running back more and more as the season progresses. THE BLITZ projects Dobbins for 12.4 carries.
Hunt OVER 2.5 Receptions (+140) – Hunt has four receptions in each of his last two games against the Ravens. Mayfield has made a habit of targetting his running backs when facing the Ravens’ blitz-heavy scheme. In Week 1, he targeted them seven times, which was right on cue with the number of targets his running backs received against the Ravens in 2019. (Note: This pick was added at 2pm ET)
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