Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Patriots at Jets
The Jets welcome another potential drubbing from the divisional-rival Patriots on Monday Night Football. Sam Darnold will not suit up for the Jets while the Patriots will look to get back on track in one of the softest matchups in football.
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Patriots at Jets NFL Betting Odds
53% of bets backing New England and 81% on the under, per ScoresAndOdds.com.
Patriots at Jets MNF Betting Preview
Well, as a suffering Jets fan, this is never a fun topic of discussion. What is going to happen when the Jets take on the Patriots? While watching Sys-Tom get decimated by the Saints on Sunday night was fun, let’s not deflect. The Jets are an abomination. The Jets are a disaster. The Jets… well, they are the Jets.
Luckily, the Jets can’t mess this one up this year. All they have to do is lose to continue on their quest to “Tank for Trevor.” Trevor Lawrence cannot escape his fate. Similarly, the Jets cannot escape a home disaster against the divisional-rival New England Patriots on Monday Night. To make things worse, Sam Darnold is not expected to play.
Darnold will miss Monday Night Football with the same shoulder issue that has plagued him since the initial blow against the Denver Broncos. Darnold will miss squaring off against the 27th worst fantasy matchup for quarterbacks (per Rotogrinders’ GridironIQ) and hand over the reins to Joe Flacco. Yes, the previously elite Flacco will take over the helm. In his previous two starts, Flacco amassed 381 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception. For reference, Josh Allen threw for more than 400 yards — yesterday. The Patriots don’t give up much through the air — just about 216 passing yards per game to opposing offenses.
The Jets will surely just attack through the ground game, then. No problem. On tap for tonight will be 15-20 Frank Gore carries for just under three-yards per touch. Sarcasm aside, Gore’s role is clearly a veteran called to teach younger players how to prepare for games. Only an offensive genius like Adam Gase would use Frank Gore heavily. The Jets’ offense is in trouble. While Jamison Crowder will return, points will be very tough to come by.
The Patriots should return Damien Harris for tonight’s game — giving them a three-headed backfield featuring James White and Rex Burkhead, as well. Sony Michel did return to practice last week and would eat into Harris’ workload if he is activated. Additionally, Cam Newton will get his share of rushing attempts — seeing at least nine attempts in all but one start. Newton makes plenty of sense as a DFS single-game Captain or MVP this evening with nearly all of the Patriots’ offense funneling through the quarterback.
The Jets’ defense is a good matchup for literally every position on the football field — including those off the field. Vendors tend to have their best days selling popcorn when the Jets come to town. Reporters give their best sideline reports. The goodness will be enjoyed by everyone when the Jets are the matchup. Allowing 29.8 points per game (27th), a 71.93% completion rate (32nd), and 7.9 yards per pass attempt (29th), the only redeeming quality the Jets’ defense brings to the table is that they are not that atrocious against the run. Teams don’t need to run against the Jets, though.
Yet, the Patriots, they do run a lot. New England ranks 4th in rushing attempts per game — which should make sense considering Cam Newton is very active on the ground. So, will the Patriots be able to score enough to beat (and cover) against a Jets team that average an abysmal 11.8 points per game?
Monday Night Football Betting Picks
My guess… yes. I was burnt by a New York football team on Monday Night Football last week when laying a ton of points. I am not worried about being burnt by Gang Green. With Joe Flacco starting, I cannot think of one positive thing to say about the Jets for tonight’s game. I am happy to lay the points and will do so on PointsBet.
MNF Betting Pick: New England Patriots -10 (PointsBet)
Patriots and Jets Player Props
Jamison Crowder Over 4.5 Receptions (-124)
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This DraftKings offering seems pretty silly to me. While the Jets are dreadful, they will have to run plays. Jamison Crowder has not finished with less than 7 catches in any start this season and will likely be looked upon frequently by a very, very dusty Joe Flacco. Certainly, his health is an issue, but when Crowder is on the field he dominates the Jets’ target-share. Whether or not these catches result with points… not relevant for us. Book the over.
Cam Newton Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
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This particular prop feels a bit overkill for me given the context of the game. The Jets hemorrhage yards through the air but are actually pretty good on the ground. Moreover, the defense only ceded 155 rushing yards to quarterbacks on 46 carries through the first 8 weeks. While Cam Newton is not a prototypical quarterback, the Jets don’t have many assignments in the passing game they have to be concerned with. New York can key in and stack the box throughout the game and dare Cam to beat them with his arm. At even money, I like the under on this prop.
First Touchdown Picks
Here are my first touchdown picks for Monday Night Football at DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings Sportsbook offers an opt-in promo for players to bet on a first touchdown and receive site credit (up to $20) if that player scores a touchdown at any point but doesn’t score first.
Damien Harris +1050
Rex Burkhead +1200
Damiere Byrd +1200
Image Credit: Imagn