NFL Week 9 Lines and Betting Picks 2021

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Hold your breath and try to get all this out in one sitting: the Jets mounted a massive upset on the AFC North-leading Bengals, behind the QB-RB combo of Mike White and Michael Carter. White and Carter scored 32 fantasy points each, and White joined Cooper Rush and Davis Mills as three of the five passing-yardage leaders of the weekend. A.J. Brown and Michael Pittman had a duel after King Derrick Henry went down with a potentially season-ending foot injury. Trevor Siemian led the Saints to a victory over the reigning Super Bowl-champion Bucs, after Jameis Winston tore his ACL. New England’s defense looked awesome again in a road win over the Chargers, and Tyler Lockett rose from the ashes in a Seattle home win over the Jags. Break!

Each Tuesday, we give you NFL betting tips for every single game on the upcoming week’s schedule. We rank the 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. Sunday games in order of confidence level, and of course provide our best bets for each of the three primetime games.

Our Week 8 ATS and over/under picks went 11-8. That’s nowhere near our 13-3-1 record last week, or the 12-4 mark we hit in Week 6, but it’s still pretty darn good. Our goal is to make you some sharp cheddar on some early-week lines and totals. If we can finish three wins over .500 after an absolutely insane week, we’ll take it.

Let’s continue this scorching hot streak, and get right into our Week 9 early lines and top betting picks. It’s all about the money—let’s go get it, and have as much fun as Cooper Rush’s family celebrating a win in his first NFL start!

NFL Week 9 Lines

NFL Week 9 Betting Picks

TNF: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts -10.5, O/U 46.5

How can we stay away from Mike White after his fascinating emergence in Week 8? White looked like he belonged in an NFL uniform, throwing for 405 yards and three touchdowns while leading the Jets to a staggering 34-31 upset over the Bengals. Were a lot of White’s completions dump-offs and screens? Yes, yes they were. Rookie running back Michael Carter caught nine of 12 targets for 95 yards, and added 77 yards on the ground on 15 carries. I don’t think the Jets will upset the Colts, but they could very well upset Indy’s spread bettors. I rarely pick heavy favorites in primetime games, and I won’t start here. I love what I’m seeing from Carson Wentz and his highly-talented skill-position players—namely RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman —but I have the Colts by seven, not 11.

PICK: Jets +10.5, UNDER 46.5

Early Games (1:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, O/U 46.5

The Bengals got punched in the mouth by Mike White and the Jets in the fourth quarter over the weekend, but they still looked very good offensively and almost pulled off the comeback win. I’ll stick with Cincy and its fabulous young offense over Cleveland’s strong defense and banged-up passing game. The rushing tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be back in action for Cleveland, but I still give the slight edge to the more well-rounded Bengals at home. I strongly recommend buying a half-point for added insurance.

PICK: Bengals -2.5

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers +3.5, O/U 41.5

The Patriots just flew across the country to upset the Chargers, and New England’s ground-and-pound game is alive and well. Now the Pats can get above .500 for the first time all season. I’m betting on Bill Belichick’s boys, even if All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey returns from injury for Carolina. Rookie QB Mac Jones might not have looked great over the weekend, but Damien Harris and the running game looked superb. New England’s offensive line has improved mightily since the beginning of the season, and so has the Pats defense. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Sam Darnold has looked abysmal ever since McCaffrey’s injury in late September. Both these teams like to run the ball and play gritty defense, but New England just looks better at both as of late. Belichick will find a way to contain McCaffrey, if he even plays. If CMC sits for a sixth game, the Pats might win by 20.

PICK: Patriots -3.5

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens -5.5, O/U 49.5

The Vikings just had a two-game winning streak snapped with a tough 20-16 loss to the Cowboys, a game Minnesota QB pins on head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikes’ play-calling was questionable, but Zimmer accidentally calling two consecutive timeouts was downright inexcusable. I’m picking a Ravens squad that’s had two weeks to prepare for this game, and I’m picking the OVER as neither of these defenses are where they should be at midseason.

PICK: Ravens -5.5, OVER 49.5

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins -7, O/U 46

You know the Dolphins have fallen off when they’re just seven-point home favorites over a 1-7 squad that’s been outscored 241-119 on the season. Well, I’m in on the Fish this weekend, because second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa should be able to roast the Texans’ mediocre pass defense. If Miles Gaskin can get it cranking, too, it will be an added plus. Houston has allowed the most rushing touchdowns (14) and second-most rushing yards (1,185) in the NFL this year. Davis Mills looked pretty good over the weekend, but he’s not good enough to outduel Tua in Miami.

PICK: Dolphins -7

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -6, O/U 42.5

Paging Drew Brees—we need a quarterback to the Bayou STAT! Just kidding, Drew, we know you’re killing it as a broadcaster, but N’Orleans just went through an emotional roller coaster. Jameis Winston tore his ACL on a scramble Sunday, then Trevor Siemian came in for a huge upset win over the reigning Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers in relief. Now, the question for Sean Payton is whether to play Siemian again, or bring back King of the RPO Taysom Hill, who’s been banged up practically all season. There are too many question marks here for me. I know Atlanta hasn’t been nearly what it used to be under Matt Ryan, but I still like the Falcons to cover in the Superdome this weekend. The Saints D is good, but not ‘win by a touchdown with Trevor Siemian starting’ good.

PICK: Falcons +6

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants -3, O/U 47.5

If the NFL had a ranking system like the NCAA, I’d probably be promoting the Giants after a narrow loss to the AFC-champion Chiefs on Monday Night Football. I’d probably also demote the Raiders for only beating a below-average Eagles team by 11 at home two weeks ago. But we’re just ranking games based on confidence level, so I’ll just tell you I’m not confident in picking a winner here. The Giants are all kinds of banged up, and the Raiders are still floating through the season without a head coach. I like the Raiders’ skill players and relative health better than New York’s, so I’ll give the slight edge to Vegas on the road.

PICK: Raiders -3, OVER 47.5

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys -8.5, O/U 49.5

The Cowboys just beat the Vikings with Cooper Rush under center, and they’ve somewhat quietly won six games in a row. If Greg Zuerlein hits just one of the two field goals he missed in Week 1, Jerry Jones owns an undefeated football team right now. But I digress. I like the Broncos with Teddy Bridgewater, but I don’t like them to pull off an upset at AT&T Center. I’m going with the OVER instead, as this should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Denver’s D is good, but it has yet to face an offense of this caliber. In one of the more exciting games of the early slate, why not root for offense?

PICK: OVER 49.5

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars 14, O/U 48.5

Man, do I hate massive spreads involving games between very good teams and very bad teams. Oddsmakers get paid the big bucks because they can somehow always find a way to even the playing field through handicapping, and we end up scratching our head about games that would otherwise be a laugher to bet. I’m going to stick with the Bills, because they are on such a different level than Jacksonville at virtually every level of the game. I’d rather buy a point for Buffalo—and try my luck at the Bills by two touchdowns—than throw any money into the Jags’ dumpster fire.

PICK: Bills -13.5 (buy a half-point)

Late Games (4:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at San Francisco 49ers

If not for the Cardinals’ Thursday night loss to the Packers—Arizona’s first L of the season—this spread would be much larger. Oddsmakers seem to be giving the Cards too little credit, while giving the 3-4 Niners way too much. San Francisco just beat a bumbling Bears team with issues spiraling way beyond the QB position and often-lost rookie Justin Fields. Arizona presents a significantly more difficult challenge than Chicago—QB Kyler Murray leads the MVP power rankings, and perennial All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins highlights a lengthy list of Cardinals skill-position players who can burn a soft secondary. When it comes down to it, the Cards are contenders and the Niners are pretenders. A loss to reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers doesn’t suddenly mean the wheels have flown off the wagon. I’ll take Arizona by a field goal on the road.

PICK: Cardinals -2.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, O/U 51

Don’t let a late-October loss to the Patriots fool you—the Chargers are really good. Second-year QB Justin Herbert almost always gets the most out of his receiving corps, Keenan Allen looks primed for a second-half breakout, and Austin Ekeler has been impressive all season. Most importantly, Herbert plays the quarterback position with intelligence and efficiency. That’s more than we can say for Jalen Hurts, who is living proof that you can’t judge a QB by his fantasy score. Hurts has been erratic in the pocket, even in a blowout Week 8 win in Detroit. The Bolts are a much better offense than the Lions, and a vastly better defense. I don’t care that this game is in the City of Brotherly Hate—LA’s bringing the pain this weekend.

PICK: Chargers -2.5

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs -1, O/U 55.5

Sportsbooks have essentially made this game a pick’em, despite the AFC-champion Chiefs being at home. What has happened to Patrick Mahomes and his high-flying offense? The scariest part is, the one time we all go against Kansas City, you know the Chiefs are going to break out of their funk and explode for 60 points as Arrowhead shakes the Earth in celebration. But I’m sorry, we have too much to go on through eight weeks to be able to bet on KC. Whether it’s stats, trends, or the good, old-fashioned eye test, this squad does not look like a contender this season. The Chiefs’ shiny, refurbished o-line has not held up nearly as well as we all thought it would, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on IR, Travis Kelce is a shell of his former All-Pro self, and KC’s defense can’t stop a nosebleed. Enter reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, who has led the Pack to seven straight wins. Most impressive during Green Bay’s streak: a 24-21 Thursday night win over the previously-undefeated Cardinals last week, despite the Packers’ top three wideouts being out due to COVID-19 protocols. I would take the Packers by five in this one, so I’ll gladly take them at -1. Green Bay is 7-1 against the spread this season.

PICK: Packers -1

SNF: Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams -7.5, O/U 54

I feel for Derrick Henry, the Titans, and their fans after the news that King Henry could miss the remainder of the season due to a broken foot. Hell, I even feel for my friend Smitty, who has Henry on his fantasy team and looked primed for his first-ever playoff run in my hometown league. The loss of a revolutionarily-dominating running back like Henry completely changes the dynamic of an offense, and it couldn’t come at a worse time. Traveling to Los Angeles to face the best defense in the NFL just adds insult to injury (literally) for the Titans. I’d buy a point here to be sure, but there’s no way I could pick against the Rams, who look like legitimate contenders on both sides of the ball. Give me the Rams and the UNDER.

PICK: Rams -6.5 (buy one point), UNDER 54

MNF: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5, O/U 40

We’re entering the Upside Down now, or as I call it lately, Undie Night Football! On Monday Night Football, underdogs look like favorites and favorites often look like dog poop. This week, I’ll take rookie Justin Fields in a breakout game for the Bears. Chicago may not win outright over a tough Pittsburgh defense and a veteran Big Ben-led offense with multiple weapons, but I’d be very surprised if it didn’t at least cover the +6.5. Roethlisberger’s arm isn’t what it used to be, nor is his offensive line. Give me the hard-nosed Bears with their athletic QB, and also give me the OVER on the super-low total of 40 points.

PICK: Bears +6.5, OVER 40

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

SloanPiva
Sloan Piva (SloanPiva)

Sloan Piva is a veteran of the sports journalism industry, and a freelance sports betting analyst. He received his master’s degree in Professional Writing from the University of Massachusetts, and currently resides in East Bay, Rhode Island with his wife and daughter. He covers the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAA, and PGA, as well as anything related to fantasy sports and sports betting. Shoot him an email anytime at SloanPiva@gmail.com!