Monday Night Football Picks: Bills vs. Titans Odds & Predictions
Monday Night Football is headed to Nashville! Even better? There’s online sports betting in Tennessee and we’ve got free NFL betting picks for those interested in Bills vs. Titans Odds. Let’s look at tonight’s matchup!
Bills vs. Titans Odds
| Bills Odds | -6 |
| Titans Odds | +6 |
| Over/Under | 53.5 |
| Date | Monday, Oct 18. |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
The Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans will conclude Week 6 of the NFL season on Monday Night Football at Nissan Stadium. In this prime-time showdown, oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy win for Buffalo, pricing the Bills as a touchdown favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest. For prop bets, check out my favorite Bills vs. Titans player props.
Buffalo Bills (-6)
After an embarrassing loss at home to open the campaign, the Bills have responded with four consecutive victories, each of which has come by at least 18 points. In that span, they also became the first team since the 2000 Baltimore Ravens to record two shutout victories in the first four games of a season. Josh Allen was not quite MVP-esque to begin the year, but he still owns the fifth-best QBR in the NFL in 2021, and has a sterling 12-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. The offensive line remains a concern, which has limited the running game. Yet, excellent play design and a wealth of talent at wide receiver has made poor protection a relative non-issue so far this fall.
Even though their two shutout victories came against two backup quarterbacks, Jacoby Brissett and Davis Mills, these defensive accomplishments highlight how well this unit has played in 2021. Bettors can find reasons to discount strong performances against the Miami Dolphins and the Houston Texans, but holding Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to 20 points last week makes it hard to ignore the continued growth for Buffalo on the defensive side of the ball. Through five weeks, the Bills have held opposing quarterbacks to only five touchdowns, forced nine interceptions, and have held signal callers to an NFL-best 60.7 passer rating. This defense is allowing only a 55.1 percent completion percentage and a league-leading 5.4 yards per attempt to opposing passing attacks. Against the run, Buffalo has also been a top-five defense, holding opponents to only 3.7 yards per carry and only two rushes of 20-plus yards. This group should have another strong performance on Monday Night Football.
Tennessee Titans (+6)
The Titans were blown off of their home field in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals by a final score of 38-13. Since that point, Tennessee has won three of their four contests, with their lone loss being to the New York Jets in overtime—a week during which the Titans dealt with a plethora of injuries. Derrick Henry has rushed for at least 113 yards in four straight games, in no small part, due to strong offensive line play. Ryan Tannehill has performed admirably, even dealing with absences from both of his top receiving targets, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Tannehill only has six touchdowns on the year, but he has done a good job taking care of the ball and figures to only get better as he gets more time on the field with his wide-outs.
Tennessee has an opportunity to be better defensively than many bettors are anticipating. A significant amount of bets and more than half of the public handle is on the over in tonight’s affair. Though it is hard to advocate for a defense that allowed 27 points to Zach Wilson, Tennessee held the Indianapolis Colts to 16 points in Week 3 and the Jacksonville Jaguars to only 19 points in Week 5. While far from an elite defense, the Titans do have one of the best safeties in the NFL in Kevin Byard. They also have two capable cornerbacks in Kristian Fulton and Jackrabbit Jenkins. Buffalo is unlikely to be stopped on downs many times this evening, but they could be forced into longer drives, settling for underneath routes, rather than attacking the defense deep as they did last week against Kansas City.
Bills vs. Titans Picks
Buffalo’s defense has been outstanding thus far in 2021. Tennessee is a ground-and-pound offense that will look to dominate the time of possession tonight behind their excellent offensive line. For a total to hit the mid-50s, there more than likely needs to be two juggernaut offensive performances or some incredibly poor defensive breakdowns. Neither Buffalo nor Tennessee are likely to give up many big plays down-the-field tonight through the air. Bettors should not expect a low-scoring affair, but they should still consider sweating out the under on a line that is priced a little bit too high. Buy a half-point to get to 54, one of the more common totals in the NFL since 2015. Take the under.
PICK: Under 54 (-120)
Ryan Tannehill has only hit the over at this threshold twice in five games this season. However, the market seems to be inappropriately deflated after he threw for only 197 yards in a comfort
able Week 5 victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace are far from elite options at cornerback for the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo’s outstanding season-long numbers against opposing signal callers have been built against low-caliber names such as Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, and Davis Mills. Buffalo held Patrick Mahomes to 272 yards through the air last week, but also surrendered 61 yards to Mahomes on the ground. Expect Tannehill to do more damage from the pocket and to hit this over with relative ease against a beatable secondary unit.
PROP: Ryan Tannehill o236.5 passing yards (-115)
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