Monkey Knife Fight NFL Strategy: Week 3
Welcome to the weekly Monkey Knife Fight picks article, in which we are going to be doing all the research you need to make the best decisions possible.
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Now, let’s get to the article.
First Prop: NYJ @ NE: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Tom Brady vs Luke Falk (+70.5): Total Passing Yards: This game is going to be interesting (and by interesting I mean not fun to watch at all and a complete blowout). While the game script drastically favors Falk, I don’t expect him to be able to do much of anything in this matchup. The Pats d is really good and Falk has very few weapons and is a 22 point dog in this matchup. There’s a decent chance that Brady is over 300 yards before the end of the half and I don’t expect Falk to be within 100 yards of him.
Le’Veon Bell(+.5) vs Julian Edelman: Total Receptions: This one has some major value, as Bell is pretty much the entirety of the Jets offense in this game. Last week, Bell had double-digit receptions. Edelman may be a guy who will see a high volume of targets in this matchup here, but the game script doesn’t favor Brady throwing a whole lot in the second half and there will likely be tons of dump-offs to Bell. This one is one of my favorite props on the board and I think Bell wins and its not remotely close.
Antonio Brown vs Josh Gordon (+11.5): Total Receiving Yards: While Brown may not have played a whole lot of snaps in his first game with the Pats, he will gradually increase as the season goes on, and his target share was through the roof in Week 1. While 11 yards is a decent amount to give up to Gordon, I expect Brown to end up with a whole lot of work in this game as the Pats will likely use a matchup where they are favored by 22 points to help further incorporate Brown into the offense.
Second Prop: Bal @ KC: Touchdown Dance
While this match up may be a though one for the Chiefs, That really doesn’t matter for this offense which will score on command no matter what. Without Hill in the offense, the offense will likely be very concentrated on Watkins and Kelce. While last week Robinson and Hardman were very involved, Watkins still lead the team in targets and we can expect that again. As for Andrews, he is looking like the favorite target of Jackson so far this year and has gotten into the end zone every game so far this year. While 2.5 is a tough mark to hit for touchdowns, there is a 5x multiplier on this prop, and if you’re feeling ballsy, I don’t mind going with the over of 3.5 for a 20x multiplier here.
Third Prop: NO @ SEA: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Russell Wilson vs Teddy Bridgewater (+25.5): Total Passing Yards: As of right now, we aren’t really sure who’s going to get more work as QB for the Saints, and we could potentially see a time share between Teddy and Hill. With that in mind, Wilson is likely a lock in this matchup where he is only giving up 25 passing yards. The offense is clicking on all cylinders and Wilson should end up with a good game here at home. Take Wilson and don’t think twice.
Michael Thomas vs Tyler Lockett (+8.5): Total Receiving Yards: While Thomas may take a big downgrade without Brees, he is the clear better and only option in this Saints offense. You can still expect a ton of targets to be thrown Thomas way in this matchup and only giving up 8.5 yards is way too low. Just take the elite WR who has a massive target share in this offense.
Alvin Kamara (+5.5) vs Chris Carson: Total Rushing Yards: Kamara is clearly the better RB here and I don’t think that many people will argue that. While Brees being out of the offense will be a bit of a hit for Kamara, people don’t realize that this Saints offense is a run-first offense. Kamara will likely be in for a larger than average workload without Brees and he’s running behind one of the best run blocking lines in the league. Add in that he’s getting 5.5 free yards and Carson is starting to lose a few carries a game to Penny, and you have an absolute lock.
Good luck on your props today, and if you don’t see them up on MKF, check back later. We will try and keep these up all day (they should only change because of injury news). If any of these props do get taken down, we will try and get a new one up in this article as soon as we can.