NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, April 5)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets Under 206.5 (-120 on ESPN BET)
There are two weak offenses who play slow, plus one elite defense. Sounds like an under.
Both of these squads have struggled mightily to put the ball in the basket for much of the season. Orlando is 23rd, and Charlotte is dead last in scoring over the past 15 games. They’re both bottom 5 in scoring on the season. Orlando has also struggled on the road this season, scoring nearly 4 fewer PPG away from home.
Both the Magic and the Hornets are also bottom 7 in pace in that span. Bad offenses need to maximize possessions in order to score, and neither team is doing that right now.
Charlotte’s defensive excellence after the trade deadline has faded, though injuries might have played a factor. They should be fairly healthy tonight. Orlando leads the league in defensive rating over the past 15 games. Only the Knicks are allowing fewer points per game in that stretch.
I would expect both teams to struggle to break 100 tonight.
Chet Holmgren Under 2.5 Assists (-115 on Fanatics)
Allan and SBK already have bets posted fading OKC in terms of assists. I’m right there with them on how this one will play out. Indiana is basically the worst matchup in the league for distribution, allowing the 4th-fewest assists and the lowest assisted field goal rate by a significant margin.
The key for Holmgren, in particular is the static nature of his playmaking data without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. He gets a nice usage rate bump (+4.3%) with both guys off the floor, but his assist rate doesn’t budge (-0.6%). He’s made just 30 passes and recorded 1 assist on 2.2 potential assists over the past 5 games (4 without SGA, 2 without Williams). This season, Holmgren is averaging 39.4 passes, 2.5 assists, and 3.6 potential assists.
Just don’t see Holmgren having success as a distributor here.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 12-10
- Prop Picks: 12-9
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