NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, March 8)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Memphis Grizzlies First Quarter Under 55.5 (-118 on DraftKings)
I’m back on Memhpis! I hit this one last week against Portland and am going right back to it. The Grizzlies have been one of my favorite fades, so I won’t spend much time on them. The interesting angle here is Atlanta without Trae Young. I don’t think they’re getting dinged enough here.
The Hawks are 8th in both 1st-quarter net rating (117.6) and scoring (30.1) on the season. Since Young went down, however, they’ve taken a huge step back. Atlanta ranks 26th in 1st-quarter offensive rating (103.4) the past 6 games. They’re scoring just 25.5 1st-quarter points per game. The new starting lineup of Capela/Bogdanovic/Murray/Bey/Johnson has a 107 offensive rating over 149 minutes.
Johnson is out tonight, but I wouldn’t expect De’Andre Hunter to be a big upgrade. In fact, the opposite is more likely, as Johnson has been a key contributor on offense.
The Grizzlies are dead last in offensive rating since Morant/Bane/Smart went down, 2.2 points per game worse than the next-closest offense. They’re 27th in 1st-quarter scoring and 28th in offensive rating on the season. This line is a few points too high, given the current state of these teams.
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-115 on Fanatics)
We had a lot of fun betting on Hartenstein when Mitchell Robinson first went down. He entered the starting lineup and was playing 32+ minutes a night while racking up nearly a dozen rebounds. Unfortunately, those days are over.
Hartenstein missed time with injury in late January and then again in mid-February. Since coming back from the most recent injury (6 games), Hartenstein has been limited to 20.8 minutes per game (MPG). He played just 11 in his first game back, but even if you remove that one, he’s at 22.8 MPG. Tom Thibodeau has been comfortable running Jericho Sims out there for 20+ minutes while also expanding the role for Bojan Bogdanovic (30+ minutes past two games).
Hartenstein has averaged 6 rebounds on 11.5 rebound chances since returning from injury, which ranks 4th and 3rd on the team, respectively. He’s taken just 4 shots per game.
Orlando has excelled against centers all season. They’ve allowed the 7th-fewest points and the 5th-fewest rebounds to the position. The Magic are 5th in rebounding rate and 11th in points allowed in the paint (where Hartenstein scores 78.4% of his points).
Season Record
- Game Picks: 9-9
- Prop Picks: 10-7
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