NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday: Heat at 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers opened as 6.5-point home favorites against the Miami Heat and the line has moved to -8 at sports betting sites. The total opened at 213 and fell to 210 as of noon on Wednesday. Here’s a look at NBA odds and NBA betting tips for today, Wednesday, December 18th, 2019.
NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday: Heat at 76ers
- Spread: Miami Heat +8
- Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -8
- Total: Over/Under 210
Both these teams have been fantastic this season. Thought that shouldn’t come as a shock in regards to the 76ers, the Heat have been quite the surprise. Most people expected Miami to make the playoffs this season, but not many people predicted they’d be only a half-game back of the no. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference at this point in the season. Even with the injury bug biting here and there, the Heat have been an elite team through and though thus far.
Looking at the line for this game, it’s a bit surprising to see the Heat are such big underdogs Wednesday night. It makes more sense if you look a little deeper into the numbers. The Heat and the 76ers may be two teams with very similar records, however, both have some of the biggest home/road splits in the entire league. As of today, no team has been a better team to bet on this season than the Heat who sit with a staggering 17-9-1 ATS record on the season. Worth noting is that most of those covers have come in South Beach; they’ve been entirely mediocre on the road. Last season, the Heat were one of the only teams in the league to have a better record on the road than at home, but this season the Heat are 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS in Miami compared to just 8-7 straight up and 7-7-1 ATS during road trips. Add in the fact that they are pretty beat up injury-wise and this line starts to make some sense.
Much like the Heat, the 76ers are a team that is beyond dominant on their home court and just average while traveling. This season they sit at a perfect 14-0 straight up and 7-5-2 ATS at home compared to 6-8 straight up and 5-8-1 ATS on the road. This trend has carried over from last season where the 76ers were a .500 team on the road but had one of the best home records in the league. Additionally, this game is one of the few this season where Philadelphia has all five starters — a starting five that whose best comparison is the Monstars from Space Jam —healthy and playing.
NBA Betting Picks: 76ers -8 & the Under 210
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Considering the information above, I can’t help but back the 76ers in this spot. Additionally, we’ve seen some encouraging early reverse line movent as 87% of tickets are on Miami, per VegasInsiders.com, yet the spread has moved further away from the Heat. We finally get the Monsta— I mean, 76ers at full health, and I’m not going to pass up my chance to bet on them. I don’t think this game stays remotely close.
- Risking 1 unit to win .91 units on 76ers -8
- Risking 1 unit to win .91 units on The Under 210
NBA 2019-2020 Betting Record: 5-2 (+2.59 units)
NBA Betting Picks for Today — Player Props
Joel Embiid Under 3.5 Assists – Embiid is averaging under 3.5 assists and there are a lot of things working against him here. When the 76ers are not at full strength, Embiid is forced to take on the brunt of the responsibility of the offense, but with all five key starters active in this game his productivity should take a dip. In fact, his assists drop by .25 per 36 with all these guys on the floor according to Rotogrinders DFS CourtIQ tool.
Monkey Knife Fight Plays — NBA Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fights props for the Heat at 76ers:
- Bam Adebayo – Over 39.5 Total Fantasy Points
- Ben Simmons – Over 37.5 Total Fantasy Points
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images