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NBA Correlation Stacking: Friday, March 25th

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2016-03-26 16:44:00

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Welcome to the NBA Correlation Stacking series, which will shed insight on stacking strategies in large field tournaments. While stacking isn’t usually a recommended strategy in cash games, it’s a high risk/high reward play that has massive upside in GPPs; if the team or game you stack stays competitive, you’re likely to reap the benefits.

I’ll not only be breaking down potential stacks of individual teams, but will also note players on the opposite bench that fit into a full fledged game stack. It’s rare that I’ll stack more than two players from a particular team without also rostering one of their opponents. Also, it’s worth noting that since this article is written on Friday’s where there are typically 8-10 games, I won’t usually recommend stacking more than 2-3 players on the same team. Stacking 3+ players from the same team is typically a better strategy on small slates. Instead of breaking down every game on tonight’s slate, I’ll hand pick the top handful of match-ups to touch on.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

T’Wolves

The Wolves remain one of the easiest teams to stack in terms of DFS – their starters play huge minutes and the their production is relatively predictable. Ricky Rubio (43% assists, 34% points, 17% rebounds) does most of the distributing, Wiggins (72% points) and LaVine (64% points) are the scorers on the wing and both front-court members are nightly double-double machines. The Wizards have done a nice job against opposing big men this season (7th vs. PFs, 8th vs. Cs), but they’ve shown weakness against opposing wings (24th vs. SFs, 18th vs. SGs). Andrew Wiggins is probably in the best spot overall and comes into this game in great form, posting at least 20 real-life points in eight of his last nine games. If you’re deciding between he and LaVine, I’d give the nod to Wiggins. Ricky Rubio is also more than viable in this match-up – pairing him up with John Wall makes sense in GPPs in the hopes that this game stays close throughout. Towns and Dieng are also strong options here, but both are better utilized as GPP options on this particular slate. I wouldn’t argue with using Towns in cash games on DK where centers are habitually underpriced.

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Top Stack: Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins (with John Wall for game exposure)

Top Stack #2: Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns (with Wall)

Top Stack #3: Wiggins and Towns (with Wall)

Wizards

There are four potential options on the Wizards side tonight – John Wall, Marcin Gortat, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter. The Wolves struggle more with PGs than any other position, which bodes very well for stacking up the Washington side. Wall (47% points, 35% assists, 14% rebounds) is among the top overall options on today’s slate due to the plus match-up and high Wizards team total (112). He’s probably best utilized in a game stack with some combination of Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, but he’s also playable with a guy like Gortat (45% points, 40% rebounds). Those two produce in extremely different manners and both should see minutes in the mid-to-high 30s if this game stays close. Gortat should be counted on for a slight minutes bump considering the size of the Minnesota front-court. The Wolves are tough on centers (7th in DvP), but minutes are gold in daily fantasy basketball. Beal and Porter will tend to sieve value from one another since they produce in very similar ways, and the fact that Beal’s minutes restriction is basically coming unhinged would suggest that he’s the better target in this spot. Minnesota ranks 22nd against opposing SGs and Beal’s price has not caught up to playing time he’s been receiving over the last week.

Top Stack: John Wall with a combination of Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns

Top Stack #2: Wall and Marcin Gortat

Contarian Stack: Wall and Bradley Beal

Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Toronto

With Jonas Valanciunas and Bismack Biyombo expected to basically split time tonight, the Raptors are back to having two realistic DFS options – Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Lowry has had his share of struggles against the Rockets over the past two seasons, but the match-up is still appealing given the Rockets pace of play and this game being a pick’em with a 212 total. While he’s likely to see a lot of Patrick Beverley (he’s been playing huge minutes since Ty Lawson departure), Lowry is one of the few PGs with triple-double upside in a spot like this. The match-up is much better for DeMar DeRozan, who will get to square off with a combination of Trevor Ariza and James Harden. The Rockets are ranked 23rd against SGs and 30th against SFs, so wing defense has been a huge problem for Houston all season. Pairing up the SGs in this match-up is a great way to expose yourself to what should be one of the most fantasy friendly games on the schedule.

Top Stack: Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan (with James Harden or Dwight Howard)

Houston

Toronto has allowed the 4th fewest FPs this season and ranks inside the top 10 against PGs, SFs and PFs. The great news here is that the two players we want to target – James Harden and Dwight Howard – don’t play those positions. Harden posted a massive 40pt, 14ast, 5reb game against the Raptors earlier this month and while we shouldn’t expect a duplication of that effort, he has huge upside every time he takes the floor. He’s begun to correlate better with Dwight Howard now that both of them are playing big minutes night in and night out, and pairing those two up is the obvious course of action here. The concern with Howard is that he’s still not all that involved in the Rockets offense despite the Houston coaching staff stating on multiple occasions that they’d like to get him the rock more often. His turnover adjusted usage rate sits at 9.6 over the past five games and only rises to 12.1 over the past ten games.

Top Stack: James Harden with DeMar DeRozan

Top Stack #2: James Harden and Dwight Howard

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Suns

Tyson Chandler will sit out again tonight, opening up another opportunity for Jon Leuer to enter the starting five. Leuer has been excellent over the past two games and will likely be the highest owned player on both major sites tonight, so there is some merit to fading him in GPPs. He’s the top target on the Phoenix side, but there are several other viable options. Brandon Knight, Devin Booker, Alex Len and P.J. Tucker are all in play against a Kings defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game this season. Pairing Leuer with one of the guards makes the most sense, as the Kings have struggled mightily with both PGs and SGs all season. Knight (61% points, 24% assists, 15% rebounds) and Booker (68% points, 20% assists, 15% rebounds) are both elite plays tonight, although pairing the two can be tough given that they produce in nearly identical ways. With that said, both players are seeing huge minutes with the Suns looking towards the future, and the ball is in the hands of one of those two nearly all the time. Alex Len may run into issues (foul trouble) against DeMarcus Cousins, so he’s the lowest ring on the Suns totem pole for me. P.J. Tucker continues to see big minutes in close games, and his ability to produce in a number of categories makes him an enticing GPP target.

Top Stack: Jon Leuer with Brandon Knight and/or Devin Booker (with DeMarcus Cousins for game exposure)

Contarian Stack: Knight and/or Booker with P.J. Tucker (with Cousins for game exposure)

Kings

The Kings are a straight-forward team to stack up tonight with DeMarcus Cousins back in action. While he’s obviously in play anytime he takes the floor, this is a really nice spot for Rajon Rondo to post a monster stat line. Rondo’s price has also fallen a bit on both major sites (he’s $7.8K on FD and DK), so the upside here is truly massive. Phoenix ranks 29th against opposing PGs this year and things haven’t improved much since Brandon Knight return (they’re ranked 26th over the past 3 weeks). The Suns have defended centers fairly well this season, but Cousins is a different animal and his consistently high usage keeps him in play regardless of the match-up. The usage rates for these two are massive and the offense runs almost solely through them when they’re both on the floor.

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Top Stack: DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo (with Leuer, Knight or Booker for game exposure)

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Mavericks

Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams and Devin Harris have all been ruled out for tonight, which opens up a ton of value on the Mavericks side. The downside here is that this game is now expected to be very lopsided (16.5 spread in favor of GS), but the Mavericks short bench should lead to fairly big minutes for the starters regardless of game flow. David Lee is the top option on the Dallas side tonight – his playing time and usage rate should both spike enormously without Dirk, Deron and Parsons in the lineup. He also has the revenge factor working in his favor, but he’ll have to do battle with Draymond Green down low. The Dallas guard trio (Wes Matthews, J.J. Barea and Raymond Felton) are all nice upside targets in this spot, but Barea will be the player I’ll have the most exposure to out of that group. His offensive game is superior to Felton’s and the Mavericks are very short on ball-handlers without Williams and Harris in the lineup. Stacking up this game has humongous upside if this contest stays competitive, but that’s not a likely outcome here.

Top Stack: David Lee and J.J. Barea (with Stephen Curry for game exposure)

Top Stack #2: Lee with Wesley Matthews or Raymond Felton

Warriors

Stacking up the Golden State side was a stronger play when it looked like the Mavericks starters would be in uniform, but this game may end up getting really ugly before we even hit the 4th quarter. Stephen Curry is the top option on the Golden State side with Draymond Green and Klay Thompson not far behind, but you’ll likely need to get your moneys worth out of them in three quarters judging by the 16.5 spread. Like I mentioned above, the upside here is huge if the Mavs can stay within striking distance, so throwing in a GS/DAL game stack in large-field tournaments may be worthwhile. Neither Barea or Felton will have any prayer at slowing Curry, so playing him alongside Draymond Green (who will battle with the defensively inept David Lee) is the best course of action.

Top Stack: Stephen Curry and Draymond Green (with David Lee or J.J. Barea for game exposure)

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Stephen Keech (SBK)