NBA Daily Grind Down: Friday 3/15

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-03-15 18:29:50

The RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NBA schedule each night. This article will break down the defense vs. position rankings for every single game and give you analysis on where you can exploit these matchups.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy basketball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, minutes, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections.

Today is the final night of the DSBBC, so I am going to do my best to help you out with the matchups, and hopefully help myself pick the right players in the process. There are 10 games on the schedule tonight, but some weird matchups fantasy wise. There are a couple of games that you might want to steer clear of and a couple that you might want to load up on.

NOTES:

1) Defense vs. Position rankings are how well a team defends against a certain position. The ranking is for the team that it is listed under, NOT the opponent.
2) Rankings are as follows: 30 is the worst defense against a position, 1 is the best.
3) Last 10 Game Data is collected at the start of each week. It will be updated each Sunday for the upcoming week.

L.A.Lakers @ Indiana – 7:00 pm EDT

• The Lakers are awful defensively and will be without Kobe Bryant tonight. Plenty of favorable matchups for the Pacers. George Hill should have a huge advantage over Nash and the Lakers have been the worst team in the league against PG’s. I also like both Paul George and David West tonight, just be a little wary of a blowout.
• The Pacers are very solid defensively and with the Lakers being without Kobe, who is going to step up for the Lakers. While Dwight has been playing great recently, he doesn’t draw a great matchup. For me, I would only take Lakers players if they are underpriced, maybe take a flier on either Antawn Jamison or Metta World Peace.

New Orleans @ Washington – 7:00 pm EDT

• This game has the feeling that it is going to come down to a last second shot, which is usually good news fantasy wise. The Hornets have some real weak spots in their defense, particularly against SG, SF, and Center. The problem is that the Wizards don’t have any great players in those positions. You can probably trust Emeka Okafor to have a solid game and if you can get John Wall for a price that isn’t too crazy, you should take him because he is on a tear right now.
• The Wizards are pretty average defensively with the exception of Okafor. He has really improved their ranking against Centers. Guys to target on the Hornets tonight are Greivis Vasquez and Anthony Davis. Davis has finally been getting a full share of minutes and has put up big games in three straight.

Charlotte @ Toronto – 7:00 pm EDT

• When you play the Bobcats, the whole team has a good matchup. The tough part is deciding which players to take. I would start with the trio of Rudy Gay, Kyle Lowry, and Amir Johnson and then work my way down from there. While Rudy has only had one game over 30 fantasy points this month I expect him to top that mark tonight.
• Toronto is a much improved defensive team from where they were earlier in the year and the Bobcats don’t have many weapons. Gerald Henderson has had three good games in a row, but it’s hard to see him keeping up that level of play, especially since he will have Rudy Gay on him if he starts heating up.

Phoenix @ Atlanta – 7:30 pm EDT

• I was hoping that Teague and Smith would be out again tonight because it would make this game much more competitive. While the Suns have plenty of holes in their defense, it seems like the big 3 of the Hawks are all overpriced right now. That and the possibility of a blowout have me a little skeptical about taking any of them.
• For the Suns, they have 5 guys that are all playing big minutes in their frontcourt. To me, that is just too many to rely on any of them having a good game. The only player I trust in this one is Goran Dragic and he has only scored over 25 fantasy points once in his last 5 games.

Minnesota @ Houston – 8:00 pm EDT

• While this game also has blowout potential, it could be fantasy gold if the T-Wolves can keep it fairly close. The T-Wolves have not been very good defensively and I love the matchups for Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik. Rubio doesn’t play much defense other than gambling for steals and Stiemsma is a poor man’s Asik.
• For the Wolves, they all have good matchups against this Rockets so called defense. If you can get Ricky Rubio for a decent price, I wouldn’t hesitate taking him. The other guy to watch out for is Derrick Williams, he has been getting huge minutes with Kirilenko and Pekovic out and hasn’t had a couple of down games which makes his price really affordable. I expect 25+ out of him tonight.

Orlando @ Oklahoma City – 8:00 pm EDT

• Call me crazy, but I just don’t love anyone in this game. Yes Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Serge Ibaka all have great matchups, but if they only end up playing 25 minutes each, then it’s not really going to matter. The Thunder just beat the Jazz by 33 the other night at home and I think the Jazz are a little better of a team than the Magic.
• Like I said, I see this one turning ugly fast, but the good news for Magic players is that a lot of them are young and management wants to see how they can play. I would stay away from Jameer Nelson and Nikola Vucevic, but would keep my eye on Tobias Harris and Maurice Harkless. Both of them could get garbage time even though they are starters.

Cleveland @ Dallas – 8:30 pm EDT

• Cleveland struggles against all positions except for Center which is just fine in this one because Chris Kaman hasn’t been playing very much anyway. The Mavs are coming off of a tough loss last night and will likely be without Shawn Marion once again. Expect big minutes from Jae Crowder in this one, I think he is a sneaky pick as Coach Carlisle isn’t going to give too many minutes to the older guys on his team in a back to back.
• Dallas has great rankings in their last ten games against PG’s and PF’s. I’m not really sure what to make of those numbers other than it just being an oddity. That said, my favorite matchup for the Cavs is for Dion Waiters. He really steps up when Kyrie is out and will likely put up plenty of shots tonight.

Miami @ Milwaukee – 8:30 pm EDT

• The Bucks managed to beat the Heat the last time these two teams played and will try to do it again tonight. The problem for them is that Miami is playing great basketball on both ends of the floor. The only player I think has good value on the Bucks is Larry Sanders. Big men typically do fairly well against the Heat and I could see him picking up 4-5 blocks with how often Miami attacks the rim.
• For the Heat, the big 3 all have good matchups. Chris Bosh wins the best matchup of the night award as the Bucks are dead last against Centers. However, I just don’t trust Bosh, there are too many games where he just disappears. If you are going to take a Heat player, I suggest either Lebron James or Dywane Wade. Lebron hasn’t had a monster game in a while and Wade should have a nice size advantage over Monta.

Memphis @ Denver – 9:00 pm EDT

• This one should really be a good game as both teams have been playing great ball lately. This one is a matchup of opposite strengths. Memphis’ bread and butter is their defense and you have to think the Nuggets aren’t going to put up as many points as usual. This lowers the value for all Nuggets so unless you can find one of them underpriced, I wouldn’t trust any of them.
• For the Grizzlies however, they are likely going to score more points than usual because this game will be more uptempo than they are used to playing. That should give a bump in value to the Grizzlies. Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol should all put up good numbers.

Chicago @ Golden State – 10:30 pm EDT

• Last but not least we have the Bulls and Warriors. The Bulls got crushed by one of the worst teams in the league the other night and you have to think that they will put together a better effort tonight. Fantasy wise, the Bulls typically aren’t a great matchup for the opposing team. Not great news for the Warriors, but I do like Stephen Curry matchup with Nate Robinson. He should absolutely dominate him and will actually be able to shoot over him with ease.
• For the Bulls, we have good matchups for Nate Robinson, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, and Joakim Noah. For my money though, I like both Luol Deng and Joakim Noah. Noah should be able to outhustle the slower Bogut and Deng is primed for a big game.