NBA Daily Grind Down: Friday 4/5

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-04-05 19:29:10

The RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NBA schedule each night. This article will break down the defense vs. position rankings for every single game and give you analysis on where you can exploit these matchups.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy basketball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, minutes, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections.

Tonight could be one of the final big nights for fantasy basketball this season. The season is winding down and soon teams will really be resting all of their players as they get ready for the playoffs. There are 12 games tonight, so plenty of matchups to break down and plenty of value plays to be had.

NOTES:

1) Defense vs. Position rankings are how well a team defends against a certain position. The ranking is for the team that it is listed under, NOT the opponent.
2) Rankings are as follows: 30 is the worst defense against a position, 1 is the best.
3) Last 10 Game Data is collected at the start of each week. It will be updated each Sunday for the upcoming week.

Miami @ Charlotte – 7:00 pm EDT

• This game would normally be a blowout (I guess it still might be), but the Heat will be without Lebron, Wade, Chalmers, and Ray tonight. That certainly doesn’t help their defense. Look for Kemba Walker to have his way with all of the Miami scrubs. I think he is a great play tonight. Also, Josh McRoberts aka McBOB is a solid value play, expect somewhere near a double-double.
• For the Heat, it may be one of those games where you just load up on them. They are short handed and play the worst defense in the league, value plays are everywhere. Chris Bosh, Norris Cole, Mike Miller, and Rashard Lewis are all going to see a ton of minutes tonight.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta – 7:30 pm EDT

• Philly’s defense is the epitome of average. Straight yellow rankings over their last 10 games. For the Hawks, I like the 2 of the big 3 tonight. Jeff Teague should be a good play if the price is right and Al Horford should be a solid play against Hawes who isn’t exactly know for his defense.
• The Hawks are good at defending Centers and lately have defended PG’s and SF’s well. I think that is more of an aberration than anything, and I still think Jrue Holiday is a solid play. Thaddeus Young is another guy that you may want to look at because Josh Smith gets caught trying to come over and block shots and the guy he is guarding tends to get easy buckets.

Cleveland @ Boston – 7:30 pm EDT

• Cleveland is near the bottom of the league on defense and there aren’t really any positions that aren’t in play against them. Jeff Green has been on fire lately and is a solid play once again. Everyone else on the Celtics are so up and down and Pierce is a bit banged up, so stick with Green and move on.
• The Celtics defense just isn’t the same without KG manning the middle. I would usually say that Kyrie Irving is a decent spot, but he will be guarded by Avery Bradley and will be on a minutes cap, two things that I’m not too high on. Tristan Thompson may be worth a shot though, he is as cheap as he has ever been and has to have a good game soon.

Milwaukee @ New York – 7:30 pm EDT

• The Bucks are good at defending PG’s and terrible at defending everything else. Carmelo Anthony has been hot recently and is in play if he isn’t too expensive. Outside of Melo though, I think I will stay away from the Knicks because Chandler is on a minutes cap and that just ruins all of the big’s value.
• The Knicks have a stacked defense and they are firing on all cylinders tonight. The Bucks are likely to be overpriced anyway after two fantasy dream matchups against the Bobcats and the T-Wolves. Overpriced players against a good defense is usually not a good recipe.

Orlando @ Chicago – 8:00 pm EDT

• The Magic are not good defensively, but they have been competitive lately which helps the value of all players involved. For the Bulls, they are so short handed and they played last night. Boozer, Deng, and Butler all played over 40 minutes last night and Nazr even played 36. You have to think they are going to be tired but they really don’t have anyone else that can play so they are all good plays again tonight. Boozer and Nazr are almost must plays.
• Chicago’s defense is not the same without Noah and Taj. Brook Lopez had a huge game like I predicted and he even managed to grab those 5 rebounds I was hoping for. Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Beno Udrih, and Maurice Harkless are all great plays. There are so many good value plays out there tonight.

Oklahoma City @ Indiana – 8:00 pm EDT

• OKC is coming off of a big win against the Spurs but now have a tough back to back against the Pacers in Indiana. This game has the feel of a lower scoring game and with so many good options today, I don’t love any of the players in this one. Too many other plays to waste a spot on this one.

Toronto @ Minnesota – 8:00 pm EDT

• Toronto is ranked dead last against SG’s and Center’s in their last ten games. I don’t really trust Luke Ridnour, but I do trust Nikola Pekovic. He has been a beast in the middle lately and has the matchup to go off tonight.
• The Wolves defense is terrible, can Kyle Lowry finally have a good game? I love his upside, at least his upside that he used to have. You have to think he will play well against Rubio but with Lowry you just never know. Jonas Valanciunas is a must play on a few sites where he is still dirt cheap. And finally Rudy Gay has a decent matchup, but I think Kirilenko slows him down a bit.

New Orleans @ Utah – 9:00 pm EDT

• This one could be a blowout, the Jazz absolutely need this game and always play well at home. On the other hand, the Hornets don’t play well on the road and couldn’t care less about this game. I think the line at -8 is way too low tonight. That said, Al Jefferson continues to be a strong play with Robin Lopez out and a sleeper that I may take a chance on is Derrick Favors. He will play more minutes if it is a blowout.
• For the Hornets, I don’t love any of them tonight.

Golden State @ Phoenix – 10:00 pm EDT

• Golden State is not very good defensively, but Andrew Bogut is in shut down mode. They are ranked 1st in the league over the last ten games against Centers so make sure to stay away from the lousy PHO Centers. Goran Dragic has a great great matchup, but will he get the minutes? Lindsay Hunter loves to mess with his minutes.
• For the Warriors, both of the bigs are solid plays against this weak Suns frontcourt and Stephen Curry is always a threat to go for 40+ fantasy points.

Houston @ Portland – 10:00 pm EDT

• I love absolutely everyone in this game. The Rockets defense is terrible so that opens the door for all plays on the Blazers. LaMarcus Aldridge is making his return tonight and would usually be a solid play but his minutes may be limited. The guys that I am looking at are Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews, both of them should play a ton of minutes.
• For the Rockets, James Harden could be in for a big night, especially without Batum there to guard him. Now that Parsons has been ruled out, Francisco Garcia will start and is worth a look.

Dallas @ Sacramento – 10:00 pm EDT

• This game should be a close high scoring game which is always good news for us grinders. The Mavs struggle against big men and Cousins should dominate inside. He may be a guy that wins someone the King of the Court.
• Dallas just has too many different players that put up stats. Teams like that are too difficult to predict so I am going to do the smart thing and avoid them all.

Memphis @ L.A.Lakers – 10:30 pm EDT

• The Grizzlies are arguably the best defense in the league so with this many games tonight, why take any Lakers?
• On the other side of the ball, Mike Conley is the play of the day for the Grizzlies. His numbers have been down a little the last few games so he is much more affordable and has a great matchup.