NBA Daily Plays: February 18, 2014
Grinders rejoice! The NBA returns! It feels like opening night again after the long All-Star Break, and all of us in Grinder Nation are itching to get back in the action. Hopefully you took advantage of the four days off from NBA and got reacquainted with old friends, made dinner for your significant other, or perhaps even took a stroll in the great outdoors. But the break is over now, and it’s time to get back to it. Let’s go!
Player Pricing Note: Daily and Weekly Plays will help you find valuable plays each day/week across the MLB, NBA , NFL and NHL. Just keep in mind that players’ prices vary from site-to-site. To check the price of a player for the site that you play on, make sure to click on the $ dollar-sign icon next to a player’s name for a list of their prices on each site.
Point Guard
Michael Carter-Williams – After opening his rookie campaign in the NBA with a blistering start, Michael Carter-Williams saw his production diminish in the last 20 games of the first half of the season leading up to the All-Star Break. MCW acknowledged he was tired physically and would have to push through it. To his credit, MCW didn’t miss many games, and was still able to produce at a decent level. I think we’ll see a rejuvenated Carter-Williams now that he’s had a few days off to rest during the All-Star Break, and there’s no better match-up for MCW than to go against the hapless defense of Kyrie Irving and the Cavaliers. The Cavs have been torched by point guards all season long, and MCW himself is averaging 22/7/8/1/1 over three games against the Cavs. One of the biggest holes in the Cavs’ defense is their lack of rim protection, as Tristan Thompson ranks near the very bottom in the league in FG% allowed at the rim and Anderson Varejao replacements, Tyler Zeller and Anthony Bennett, are no better. MCW takes a whopping 55% of his field goal attempts at the rim (very high for a point guard), and in this matchup he should be able to get to the rim at will and finish at a higher rate than he normally does.
I’m not writing him up today, but I should mention that MCW’s counterpart, Kyrie Irving, also has a tremendous match-up in this game and makes a great play.
Chris Paul – Chris Paul looks fully healthy after missing a few weeks with a shoulder injury, and on many sites, his price hasn’t yet caught up to his expected production. Paul is an elite fantasy player, and at least for one more night, he’s priced below the top tier. Tonight, he gets a nice match-up at home vs. the Spurs in a game that should be competitive and has the second highest over/under of the night. The Clippers will want to win this game, and will lean heavily on their star point guard to make it happen. In addition, it’s Cliff Paul bobblehead night, so if you believe in the “extra motivation” factor of bobblehead night, you’ve got that going for you as well. Personally, I think CP3 is one of the most competitive players in the league and is never lacking in motivation, so I’m not bumping up my projection of him. Nevertheless, he makes an excellent play this evening.
Shooting Guard
Marco Belinelli – Nobody really wants to roster Marco Belinelli. Not me, not you, not anyone. But with Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard still sidelined, the Spurs will need big minutes out of Marco, who has a nice matchup against the relatively poor wing defending of the Clippers. In what should be an up-and-down game, Belinelli should be able to find space to hit some transition threes and perhaps get his hands in a few passing lanes for a steal or two. Don’t overpay for him, but he’s cheap most places across the industry, and on a night without a huge number of obvious value plays, Belinelli should be able to reach his value threshold and allow you to spend on studs elsewhere.
EDIT: It appears Ginobili MAY return tonight, which would cut into Belinelli’s projection a little bit, but I still think he makes for a strong play tonight.
DeMar DeRozan – He won’t come cheap, but at a position that can be tough to fill, nobody offers a higher floor than DeMar Derozan. The Raptors lean heavily on him for offensive production, and he’ll get plenty of supply and have the ball in his hands all game. If you can fit DeRozan in your team, odds are you won’t regret rostering him.
Small Forward
Luol Deng – Deng has seen a drop in his production and minutes since joining the Cavaliers, but his price has dropped accordingly, and tonight he gets the dream match-up vs. the 76ers, in a style of game that perfectly fits his style of play. There are some trade rumors surrounding Luol, so make sure no big news hits before lineup lock, but assuming he’s in the lineup, Deng should have an excellent game.
Kyle Singler – The former Dukie has really solidified his place in the Piston’s starting rotation, and comes at a near minimum price tag on many sites. He doesn’t offer huge upside, but he’s one of the best bets to reach value tonight.
Power Forward
Tristan Thompson – Tristan should be one of the most heavily owned players across the various DFS sites tonight. With Anderson Varejao sidelined, the Cavs will need to lean more on Thompson for rebounding and scoring. Add in the fact that nobody defends the power forward position worse than the 76ers, and we have a an ideal situation for Thompson to have a big game. Don’t over-think this one. Get Tristan Thompson in your lineups.
Ersan Ilyasova – Forgive me Grinders, for I have sinned. The third commandment of DFS NBA reads, “Thou shalt roster no Milwaukee Bucks”, yet here I am advising you to put a little ERSANITY in your lives. For that, I apologize. But if you look at his recent production and price point, there’s no denying he’s been one of the players that is reaching value most often. Make sure he’s in the starting lineup, as John Henson is expected to return tonight, but if he is, feel free to deploy Ersan. And yes, feel free to yell at me on Twitter (@draftcheat) when he gets Larry Drew’d and plays 11 minutes scoring 6 fantasy points.
Center
Nikola Vucevic – Vucevic really started to hit his stride in the last few games before the All-Star Break, and tonight he gets a matchup against the awful front court of the Milwaukee Bucks. Vucevic should be able to hit a double-double with ease and has 50 fantasy point upside in this game. He has a moderate price tag on most sites and makes a great play if you do not want to pay up at the Center position.
Al Jefferson – It may not seem like a great match-up against a rebounding force like Andre Drummond, but the numbers say otherwise. Detroit has been just average against opposing Centers this season, and Jefferson has been downright dominant lately. Jefferson likely enjoyed his days off during the All-Star Break and should come out ready to play in this game. In his two previous games against Drummond, Big Al has averaged 22/12/2/3/1, and his vast array of post moves are too much for a still very young and inexperienced Andre Drummond.